davidbfpo,

Sadly, Nigeria is on the same trajectory.

Most foreign analysts concentrate on Boko Haram or the Niger Delta crisis, because they fit easy categories (War on terror & Energy security).

Having said that, Nigeria's most deadly fault-lines are in the Middle Belt - where the former Sokoto Caliphate & Kanem-Bornu Empire meet Christianised ethnic groups.

Nowhere is this more visible than in the Middle Belt's most important cities - Kaduna & Jos. In Kaduna, a river separates the Christian part of the city from the Muslim part. When I traveled to Kaduna, I was advised to land at a Abuja & travel to Kaduna from the South (since I was a Christian). Muslims are advised to land at Kaduna airport & pass through Muslim populated parts of the city.

Sharia law is implemented some states in that part of Nigeria & while "multi-culturally educated Western intellectuals" can advance sophisticated arguments in favour of Shari'a law - Nigerian Evangelicals will not.

And the average poorly educated conservative Nigerian Muslim doesn't see the need for sophistication either. So people fight & kill.

The anti-Shari'a riots tore Kaduna apart. Since 1999 about 15,000 people have died in inter-communal clashes (ethnic animosities tinged with religion). One can see clear fault lines there.

This thing isn't going to stop. Nobody is going to stop the Saudis from sending Wahabbi preachers or sponsoring religious students. Nobody is going stop American TV evangelists. The nation is bifurcating there.

And that is only one fault line.

So Nigeria's future is like Yugoslavia - only worse, we are a lot poorer, a lot more violent and there are more of us.