Nigeria 2013-2017

[KingJaja]

Analysts tend to focus on "big issues", but they might miss out on the small issues that are apparent to folks on the ground. Little things like inter-ethnic relationships & how Nigerians see each other.

Nigeria is a very large country & very diverse too. It is at the meeting point of two great missionary religions: Christianity & Islam. That in itself shouldn't be that much of a problem, but there is almost zero "diversity training", so there's very little appreciation or sympathy from Christians as to the Muslim point of view - and vice-versa.

It is little stuff like this that aggravates sectarian tensions, it breeds an atmosphere of mutual suspicion & makes it easier for groups like Boko Haram to operate.

Boko Haram has been in serious business for like half a decade, what impact has that had on the average Nigerian Christian & his perception of Islam - & what are the implications for Nigeria's future?

Questions like these are seldom asked by analysts, focus is on appeasing the Muslim community - but what exactly are the Christians thinking? Are they planning to retaliate? Will it have political consequences?

Those are important questions we ignore - at our peril.

[KingJaja]

This is unrelated to the general thrust of this thread, but I'd like to point out that the arbitrary nature of Africa's "borders" make it impossible to contain threats like Ebola. Let's consider Nigeria.

1. https://t.co/EDpqZaUSYw This town in SW Nigeria with direct links to Cote D'Ivoire

2. It is possible to go by speed boat direct from Uyo in Akwa Ibom state to Malabo in equatorial Guinea

3. Nigeria and Sudan have long historical links, impossible to polise movement between both nations.

Implications for national security and also spread of infectious diseases.

[KingJaja]

Discusses the links between Northern Sudan & Northern Nigeria.

Historically,socio-cultural and trade ties have been strong between Northern Nigeria and Northern Sudan,particularly around Kano and Bornu. For centuries, the Shuwa Arabs(who number perhaps half a million people in Adamawa,Yobe and Borno states) who are thought to have emigrated from Darfur have inhabited the area around the Biu Plateau,Mandara mountains and plains and the Lake Chad basin. There also exists a well-established Sudanese diaspora in Kano. As recently as 1900,Rabeh the son of a Darfuri Arab was temporal Lord of the Lake Chad region!

These migratory trends appear to have been influenced by the fact of Kano having been the central terminus and Bornu the eastern terminus of the Trans-Saharan trade routes. Indeed,there is a long established practice(which continues to this day) of sending children/wards of the nobility for training in Islamic law,philosophy and theology to the Sudan.This is particularly noticeable in emirates such as Kano,Katsina,Zaria,Sokoto,Adamawa and Bornu.
So,how did Nigerians end up becoming Sudanese nationals?

http://beegeagle.wordpress.com/2010/...-of-the-sudan/

[davidbfpo]

Gruesome video footage, images and testimonies gathered by Amnesty International provide fresh evidence of war crimes, including extrajudicial executions, and other serious human rights violations being carried out in north-eastern Nigeria as the fight by the military against Boko Haram and other armed groups intensifies.

The video is bad, especially at the end.

Link:http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/niger...mes-2014-08-05

[KingJaja]

David,

Nothing unusual about that. The Nigerian Army killed 2,400 in a single day in 1999 in Odi (in the Niger Delta). Amnesty and HRW protest, life goes on. That's the deeply distressing reality of life in Nigeria.

Another important (but often non discussed fact) is this: empathy is dead in Nigeria. Nigeria has witnessed so many gruesome killings that people no longer care (as long as it is not in their part of the country).

I live in Lagos, nobody in Lagos is bothered about this - and most definitely nobody from the Niger Delta or Southeast who will tell you that "Northerners weren't bothered when Northern dictators sent soldiers to massacre our people".

[davidbfpo]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

[KingJaja]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

Is Western involvement critical in solving this problem? I don't get a feel the Nigerian Army feels that way. They've already met the Sri Lankans, so that should tell you in what direction their minds are moving.

Worst case scenario, some territory is ceded to Boko Haram, life goes on, news is suppressed.

It is unfortunate, Nigeria was very "poorly designed" - bits and pieces of 1,000 year old Islamic states joined together with coastal forest states - which they had nothing in common with. That's why you have Sharia law in the North & Evangelical Christianity in the South.

There's very little cultural basis for a Nigerian state & if Boko Haram means the North leaves the South - I doubt if too many in the South will be bothered - if it doesn't shake up things too much.

[Bill Moore]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

The Nigerian military isn't doing itself any favors. It is tragic if confirmed these are military men (uniforms alone doesn't confirm that), especially after the years of effort dedicated to help reform the Nigerian military. Maybe in the end those who say this is Africa, and it is best to stay out are ultimately right?

[JMA]

The video is bad, especially at the end.

Link:http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/niger...mes-2014-08-05

That this video surprises people says a lot in itself.

The main problem is that the people who make the decisions on Africa in Washington and the European capitals have absolutely no idea of how Africa 'works'.