Page 4 of 14 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast
Results 61 to 80 of 265

Thread: Nigeria 2013-2017

  1. #61
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    789

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Just think what job creation could take place if you could stop the politicians and civil servants from looting the country... and recover even half of what has been stolen already?

    Problem solved... what's next?
    I thought we want a serious discussion of issues here - not to suggest that:

    1. I don't know that public money is being looted in Nigeria.
    2. Outright dismissal of a news article I posted as if to suggest that the newspaper and I are very stupid to even comment on this in the first place.

  2. #62
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    I thought we want a serious discussion of issues here - not to suggest that:

    1. I don't know that public money is being looted in Nigeria.
    2. Outright dismissal of a news article I posted as if to suggest that the newspaper and I are very stupid to even comment on this in the first place.
    KingJaja, do me a favour please... you are not speaking to a North American or a continental European... spare me the pretense of ignorance of the corruption levels in Nigeria (which are as out of control as some East European states).

    Tranparency International finds Nigeria 144 of 177 on the corruption scale... that makes it highly corrupt.

    Now here is the immediate cash for fund job creation - if it can ever be recovered:

    President Goodluck Jonathan orders inquiry into Nigeria’s ‘missing’ $20bn of oil revenue

    Then here is a what could have been statement of the obvious - which maybe you have missed:



    Now given all that can you believe that both the US and UK give aid of around $250m each to Nigeria. Stupid is as stupid does.
    Last edited by JMA; 03-21-2014 at 06:57 PM.

  3. #63
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    789

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    KingJaja, do me a favour please... you are not speaking to a North American or a continental European... spare me the pretense of ignorance of the corruption levels in Nigeria (which are as out of control as some East European states).

    Tranparency International finds Nigeria 144 of 177 on the corruption scale... that makes it highly corrupt.

    Now here is the immediate cash for fund job creation - if it can ever be recovered:

    President Goodluck Jonathan orders inquiry into Nigeria’s ‘missing’ $20bn of oil revenue

    Then here is a what could have been statement of the obvious - which maybe you have missed:



    Now given all that can you believe that both the US and UK give aid of around $250m each to Nigeria. Stupid is as stupid does.
    No problem, I'm out of this discussion forum. It is a waste of my time.

  4. #64
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default Reducing militancy: same approach, no change here? Part 2

    Only a week ago I posted on a prison break and the five hundred shot escaping (Post ) and 'same approach, no change here' is sadly all too true. Yes JMA it is Africa.

    From AJ's sub-title:
    At least 21 detainees shot dead during attempted escape from the cells of the secret police headquarters in Abuja.
    Link:ww.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/03/nigerian-prisoners-killed-abuja-jailbreak-20143301832373181.html

    Some more detail from the Nigerian website:http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/a...detainees-dss/

    I've only did a short stint in a detention facility, but basic security was sadly neglected and what type of facility has armed staff inside? The Nigerian State Security Service's detention facility - stupid.
    davidbfpo

  5. #65
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    789

    Default After the insurgency: some thoughts on reconciliation in Nigeria

    Very interesting lecture by Matthew Hassan Kukah (Catholic Bishop of Sokoto). He's also scholar who wrote a book on "Religion & Politics in Northern Nigeria".

    After the defeat and following the exit of Sultan Attahiru, the burden of deciding the future for Islam rested in the hands of Muhammadu Buhari, the Waziri. In summary, three options were open to the rump of the caliphate. There were those who, like Onada above, believed that they would fight to the end and never surrender to the new conquerors. They believed that the caliphate could still be reclaimed and this is largely the lost glory that is being contested. Secondly, there were those who believed that some kind of cohabitation might be diplomatically worked out so that the religion could survive. Thirdly, there were those who believed that the new order should be supported and ways be explored to ensure a better future.

    The Waziri, after advice from the scholars, decided to work out a modus vivendi with the colonial state. In his wisdom, he argued that since Lugard the conqueror had stated that all Muslims would be free to pray, pay Zakat and observe the Ramadan, there was no need for Hijra or continued fight. Since the caliphate had been founded as a home for Islam, the Waziri displayed some real diplomatic sagacity.

    Amidst this dilemma, the Waziri received counsel to cooperate with the colonial state. According to a judge in Gwandu: The world is a house of distress…The Christians do not impede religion and the rites of Islam established in our land. Their goal is seeking for territory and the over lordship in worldly matters. As regards Islam, they do not hinder anyone from it, from Futa to here…This is our particular kind of friendship with them at present. We show regard to them with the tongue and have intercourse with them in the affairs of the world, but never love them in our heart nor adopt their religion[5]. From then till now, the battle over the perception of the role of Islam and the State has merely been shaped by circumstances, but the key issues have not changed. The feeling that this loss can be redressed and that we can return to these glory days resides deep down.

    This is not the place for us to go into the details of this phase of protest. However, the significance of this reference lies in the fact that it helps us understand the origins of violence in northern Islam. But we need to make one passing remark as to how and why all this relates to the tensions between Islam and Christianity today.
    - See more at: http://www.theadvocatengr.com/index.....sr6aadBr.dpuf

  6. #66
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,817

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    No problem, I'm out of this discussion forum. It is a waste of my time.
    Seems you do this an awful lot lately when faced with reality and skepticism from people who are well aware of African policy and leadership.

    Better grow some thick skin as it is far from over.

    The point being, Nigeria should be the flagship of a successful African nation. However, all most of us recall are the spamming emails about our dead uncles with cash in Nigeria.

    Yes, it is a shame as there are literally 100s of thousands of Nigerians like you that go to work every day and deal with life there.

    How many generations will it take to resolve the current impasse ?
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  7. #67
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    789

    Default Nigeria violence: Seventy killed in Abuja bus blasts

    Very sad news, site is about 15 minutes from central Abuja:

    More than 70 people have been killed in two blasts that rocked a crowded bus station on the outskirts of Nigeria's capital, Abuja, officials say.

    The blast happened as commuters were about to board buses and taxis to go to work in central Abuja, the BBC's Haruna Tangaza reports.

    Eyewitnesses say there are dead bodies scattered around the area.

    Suspicion immediately fell on the Boko Haram Islamist militant group, which has staged previous attacks in Abuja.

    However, most of its attacks have been in the north-east of the country.

    Abbas Idris, head of the Abuja Emergency Relief Agency, told the BBC that so far they have confirmed 71 people dead and 124 injured.

    Police spokesman Frank Mba gave the same figures, adding that 16 luxury coaches and 24 minibuses had been destroyed.

    Eyewitness Badamasi Nyanya said he had seen 40 bodies being evacuated; other eyewitnesses say they saw rescue workers and police gathering body parts.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27018751

  8. #68
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    11,074

    Default Waging War in Nigeria, and Seeking New Battlegrounds

    Waging War in Nigeria, and Seeking New Battlegrounds

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  9. #69
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    While the TV news seems to be full of the abduction of 250 odd girls a few weeks ago it seems to have missed comment on SWC.

    The US and Uk have promised to get involved:

    U.S. to Send Team to Nigeria to Help Find Kidnapped Girls

    The Obama administration is dispatching military officials and hostage negotiators to Nigeria to aid in the recovery efforts of more than 250 girls kidnapped by the militant group Boko Haram, whose leader recently boasted "I will sell them in the market"
    Nigeria abductions: UK experts to provide advice

    The UK is to send a small team of experts to Nigeria to help over the abduction of more than 200 schoolgirls.
    Last edited by JMA; 05-08-2014 at 07:38 PM.

  10. #70
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    861

    Default

    I have a longish post about the broader implications of Boko Haram for "moderate Muslim" strategy and suchlike

    http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201....html?spref=tw

    btw, Haramis means "bastards" in Urdu and related languages...

  11. #71
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Berkshire County, Mass.
    Posts
    896

    Default Gamboru Ngala massacre, knock-on effect from the Chibok rescue effort?

    Boko Haram is said to have exploited the efforts to recover the girls kidnapped from Chibok in their raid on the town of Gamboru Ngala. From the New York Times:

    Dozens of militants wearing fatigues and wielding AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenade launchers descended on the town of Gamboru Ngala, chanting “Allahu akbar,” firing indiscriminately and torching houses. When it was over, at least 336 people had been killed and hundreds of houses and cars had been set on fire, said Waziri Hassan, who lives there, and Senator Ahmed Zanna. […] “Yesterday, people were still trying to pick up dead bodies,” Mr. Zanna said. “It’s really traumatizing.” The senator said the insurgents had used two armored personnel carriers stolen from the Nigerian military several months ago.
    Two APCs stolen from the Nigerian military?
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

  12. #72
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    11,074

    Default What Gives Boko Haram its Strength

    What Gives Boko Haram its Strength

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

  13. #73
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default Kidnapped girls: pawns in an insurrection

    Having watched some US news reporting on the external reaction to the kidnapping of the school girls, I looked for some enlightenment.

    A short CTC commentary:http://tinyurl.com/kzxr9bd

    A commentary from the Oxford Research Group (ORG), gives a good background:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.u...ion_boko_haram

    An African observer's comment http://muslimsinafrica.wordpress.com...ssein-solomon/ that ends:
    Abuja needs to capitalize on this and reinvigorate the fight against the Islamists once and for all. Instead, as I sit watching my television screen, I am filled with dismay as the Nigerian government offers to negotiate with Boko Haram. This constitutes a dereliction of duty – a betrayal of national trust – on the part of the Jonathan government.
    I fear the girls are a "lost cause", after all they were kidnapped on the 14th April 2014. Western help, however discrete in country, I suspect will enhance Boko Harem's message. When will such help leave, or as ORG fear see mission creep or are the girls just pawns?
    davidbfpo

  14. #74
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default Stirring the pot

    In a somewhat unusual format of a cell-phone screen; the article starts with:
    Was the Nigerian Military Complicit in the Chibok Abductions?
    Experts on Boko Haram suggest that the kidnap of over 200 schoolgirls in northern Nigeria could not have been carried out without some degree of police or military cooperation.
    Link:http://m.thinkafricapress.com/?url=h...m%3Demail#2672
    davidbfpo

  15. #75
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default Stirring the pot can confuse

    A taut analysis by RUSI's Rafaello Pantucci 'The Franchising of Boko Haram' and here is one passage:
    Having claimed responsibility for attacks in areas traditionally dominated by Boko Haram whilst operating under a different name and ideology, Ansaru has further complicated Western efforts to gain an insight into the psyche of Islamic fundamentalism in Nigeria. Beyond this, the broader explosion in violent activity across northern Nigeria since 2012 reinforces the notion that Boko Haram has developed into a brand whose ‘franchise’ has been adopted by all sorts of other organisations. This makes an understanding of Boko Haram even more complicated, with the already opaque nature of the group lending itself well to an umbrella organisation to which anyone can attribute their actions.
    Link:https://www.rusi.org/publications/ne.../#.U3yuZnZZAdV
    davidbfpo

  16. #76
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    789

    Default

    David,

    Few points on Nigeria.

    1. Important to understand Nigeria's politics & history to make sense of the dysfunction of the Nigerian state.

    2. Nigeria has a long history of military rule, politicians don't want a well-equipped military - they plot coups.

    3. When Obasanjo became president, he removed all "military officers who occupied political positions" - in addition he didn't fund the military well enough for 8 years.

    4. Nigerian politicians prefer to keep the military weak, than risk overthrow - Shagari spent heavily on the military, he was overthrown.

    5. The military has a large number of Northerners (officers & other ranks). Southern politicians are very weary of a powerful military - and by extension, a more powerful North. The military has been the major leverage the North has over the South.

    6. All this led to the appalling state of the Nigerian Military.

    7. Will this Chibok issue affect President Jonathan's chances of re-election? Depends on who he's contesting against. Regional tensions are rising, very different narratives on "who is benefiting from Boko Haram". Southerners insist "Northern politicians are benefiting". Northerners insist "Jonathan is benefiting from Boko Haram".

    8. Nigeria is a very divided nation - & we might get to a 2007/08 style crisis (like in Kenya). The state is on the verge of failure, with the North fearful that loss of the oil-rich South will make them as poor as Mali.

    9. Boko Haram might just succeed in destroying Nigeria, there is too much history of inter-ethnic/religious crisis & bloodshed for a united, nationalistic movement to arise to 'salvage Nigeria'.

    10. I wish these girls be found & found alive & returned to their parents.

  17. #77
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default

    KingJaja,

    Thank you for your "on the ground" points.

    I do wonder if however strong parts of Nigeria are reported here, such as the reforms made in Lagos and the emergence of a middle class, that the country is fundamentally vulnerable. The first historical example that came to mind was Yugoslavia, a federation held together by Tito in the communist era, which fell apart quickly and we know what followed then.

    Some of those who worked in Nigeria before Boko Haram's return to the fore assert they advised their embassies that danger was ahead, only to be told no it was not.

    A tactical question regarding the Nigerian state security institutions, given your remarks on the military. Would it make sense to create a new para-military force for the duration of the emergency, deployed in the north only?

    Plus such possible innovations as a forensic laboratory in the Punjab, Pakistan, see post 440:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=8689&page=22
    davidbfpo

  18. #78
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    789

    Default

    David,

    KingJaja,

    Thank you for your "on the ground" points.

    I do wonder if however strong parts of Nigeria are reported here, such as the reforms made in Lagos and the emergence of a middle class, that the country is fundamentally vulnerable. The first historical example that came to mind was Yugoslavia, a federation held together by Tito in the communist era, which fell apart quickly and we know what followed then.

    Some of those who worked in Nigeria before Boko Haram's return to the fore assert they advised their embassies that danger was ahead, only to be told no it was not.

    A tactical question regarding the Nigerian state security institutions, given your remarks on the military. Would it make sense to create a new para-military force for the duration of the emergency, deployed in the north only?

    Plus such possible innovations as a forensic laboratory in the Punjab, Pakistan, see post 440:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...t=8689&page=22
    13 Hours Ago 01:46 AM
    1. For some reason, Boko Haram hasn't extended beyond the border established between Northern & Southern Nigeria established by Lugard. This makes some people suspect that there are some political undertones to Boko Haram - i.e. "their Northern sponsors" don't want "their business interests in Southern Nigeria to be affected".

    2. Beyond that, Nigeria looks a lot more like two countries - large swathes of the North and Middle Belt are in crisis, but it has had very little impact on the price of food in the Lagos - I live in Lagos.

    3. So foreign embassies aren't too bothered about their citizen's safety in Lagos - where an overwhelming majority on expatriates go or the Niger Delta (where the rest go - risks are manageable there, kidnappers want money).

    4. About the "middle class", yes it exists - but is very fragile & unemployment is a massive challenge right now. It is worse than Spain or Greece.

    5. Nigeria could go the way of Yugoslavia, there are fundamental disagreements between the Northern and Southern elite over issues such as land use, resource control, devolution of powers and the internal architecture of the Nigerian state. The North wants things pretty as much as they are, but the South wants fundamental changes.

    6. The North - or at least key parts of it, is likely to be 20 years behind the South. Literacy & immunization rates are appalling, investment is declining - many Southern businessmen (a key part of the Northern economy) are closing shop & moving their businesses down South. In addition, there is a massive migration of Northerners down South to seek employment/opportunities.

    7. Many analysts miss this out - there's also a class struggle going on in the North & Boko Haram in some way, is an expression of this class struggle. The Northern elite, which governed Nigeria for 35 plus years did very little to improve human capital in the North - they preferred to keep the feudal system (perfected by Lugard) intact.

    8. So we might be seeing some manifestation of Robert Kaplan's "revenge of the poor" in Northern Nigeria - local elite will be challenged by the underclasses & the elite will transfer this blame to the center in Abuja - & that narrative will be eagerly gobbled up by most Western analysts.

    9. Southerners will watch these events & find it difficult to make head or tail out of them - since the language of Islam will be used - it will be seen as a threat to their existence. Already fraying bonds will weaken.

    10. Northern Nigeria is at the weakest point ever - since Nigeria's independence. And if they don't win the next elections & the generation that took over Nigeria in 1966 gradually die out - all bets are off.

    11. Nigeria cannot continue as presently constituted - but the political elite are well practiced in the art of "muddling through" situations - I'm not sure they can pull this off, even the army looks a lot weaker than it was in the past.

  19. #79
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    13,346

    Default



    From a slightly long BBC News item:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27547214
    davidbfpo

  20. #80
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    I hear all the time what the problems are but never hear any solutions.

    I personally think these 'problems' will only be addressed by the Chinese when they take over.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    David,

    1. For some reason, Boko Haram hasn't extended beyond the border established between Northern & Southern Nigeria established by Lugard. This makes some people suspect that there are some political undertones to Boko Haram - i.e. "their Northern sponsors" don't want "their business interests in Southern Nigeria to be affected".

    2. Beyond that, Nigeria looks a lot more like two countries - large swathes of the North and Middle Belt are in crisis, but it has had very little impact on the price of food in the Lagos - I live in Lagos.

    3. So foreign embassies aren't too bothered about their citizen's safety in Lagos - where an overwhelming majority on expatriates go or the Niger Delta (where the rest go - risks are manageable there, kidnappers want money).

    4. About the "middle class", yes it exists - but is very fragile & unemployment is a massive challenge right now. It is worse than Spain or Greece.

    5. Nigeria could go the way of Yugoslavia, there are fundamental disagreements between the Northern and Southern elite over issues such as land use, resource control, devolution of powers and the internal architecture of the Nigerian state. The North wants things pretty as much as they are, but the South wants fundamental changes.

    6. The North - or at least key parts of it, is likely to be 20 years behind the South. Literacy & immunization rates are appalling, investment is declining - many Southern businessmen (a key part of the Northern economy) are closing shop & moving their businesses down South. In addition, there is a massive migration of Northerners down South to seek employment/opportunities.

    7. Many analysts miss this out - there's also a class struggle going on in the North & Boko Haram in some way, is an expression of this class struggle. The Northern elite, which governed Nigeria for 35 plus years did very little to improve human capital in the North - they preferred to keep the feudal system (perfected by Lugard) intact.

    8. So we might be seeing some manifestation of Robert Kaplan's "revenge of the poor" in Northern Nigeria - local elite will be challenged by the underclasses & the elite will transfer this blame to the center in Abuja - & that narrative will be eagerly gobbled up by most Western analysts.

    9. Southerners will watch these events & find it difficult to make head or tail out of them - since the language of Islam will be used - it will be seen as a threat to their existence. Already fraying bonds will weaken.

    10. Northern Nigeria is at the weakest point ever - since Nigeria's independence. And if they don't win the next elections & the generation that took over Nigeria in 1966 gradually die out - all bets are off.

    11. Nigeria cannot continue as presently constituted - but the political elite are well practiced in the art of "muddling through" situations - I'm not sure they can pull this off, even the army looks a lot weaker than it was in the past.

Similar Threads

  1. Connections 2010-2018 Wargaming Conferences
    By BayonetBrant in forum Training & Education
    Replies: 28
    Last Post: 09-21-2018, 10:44 AM
  2. The Trump impact on US policy (July 2017 on)
    By OUTLAW 09 in forum Politics In the Rear
    Replies: 154
    Last Post: 07-09-2017, 01:18 PM
  3. Russian Info, Cyber and Disinformation (July 2017 to end '17)
    By OUTLAW 09 in forum Media, Information & Cyber Warriors
    Replies: 55
    Last Post: 07-09-2017, 01:18 PM
  4. Dad's Army in Nigeria: South Africa's aging mercenaries
    By davidbfpo in forum PMCs and Entrepreneurs
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 04-15-2015, 12:16 PM
  5. AFRICOM and the perception mess
    By Entropy in forum Africa
    Replies: 161
    Last Post: 03-09-2012, 09:37 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •