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Thread: Nigeria 2013-2017

  1. #81
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I personally think these 'problems' will only be addressed by the Chinese when they take over.
    I'm sure China's rivals would love to see them walk in there and smack that tar baby, but do you really think they'll oblige? They are not geniuses, but I think they are smart enough not to repeat the white man's folly. I think they have very little interest in taking over and no interest at all in solving problems: they'll cut deals with whoever's in power, extract all they can, and move on when things fall apart.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Oh you again...

    Yes that is where the Chinese are different to the Brtis and French in their modus operandi but there will come a time when they just can't stand by and let their 'investments' be threatened.

    A hint for you on where to educate yourself on the watershed moment for China betweeh arms length almost risk free use of bribery to gain access to natural resources (and increasingly land) and the need to get involved in peace and security actions to protect their often substantial investments is South Sudan (with more to follow).

    There is a lot going on here - in Africa - as no doubt in your neck of the woods and my best advice remains that you (and others) make sure your children learn Mandarin Chinese with the first word being 'boss'.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I'm sure China's rivals would love to see them walk in there and smack that tar baby, but do you really think they'll oblige? They are not geniuses, but I think they are smart enough not to repeat the white man's folly. I think they have very little interest in taking over and no interest at all in solving problems: they'll cut deals with whoever's in power, extract all they can, and move on when things fall apart.

  3. #83
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Yes that is where the Chinese are different to the Brtis and French in their modus operandi but there will come a time when they just can't stand by and let their 'investments' be threatened.

    A hint for you on where to educate yourself on the watershed moment for China betweeh arms length almost risk free use of bribery to gain access to natural resources (and increasingly land) and the need to get involved in peace and security actions to protect their often substantial investments is South Sudan (with more to follow).
    So far the Chinese approach has been to extract as much and as fast as possible with little effort to meddle in what passes for governance and no effort at all to solve any problems that aren't their own. That may of course change, if investments are threatened. When that happens, the Chinese may do what the Westerners have traditionally not done: weigh the value of the investment against the cost of "peace and security actions", which of course have less to do with peace or security than with securing investments, not necessarily the same thing.

    Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder. If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war. I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    There is a lot going on here - in Africa - as no doubt in your neck of the woods and my best advice remains that you (and others) make sure your children learn Mandarin Chinese with the first word being 'boss'.
    An ironic prediction, given the rather intense interest of so many Chinese in learning English and establishing any pied a terre they can outside China. Given the depth and breadth of China's domestic issues, the image of the all conquering Chinese juggernaut doesn't really hold up very well. The rest of the world is as likely to face the problem of a Chinese implosion (which would be a big problem) as it is to have to manage Chinese dominance.

    Probably straying onto the territory of the "China's Expanding Role..." thread, but so it goes.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder. If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war. I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.
    The PRC was a supporter of UNITA and they are presently contributing to MINUSMA. But I take your meaning that they have not made any OEF scale commitments.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

  5. #85
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ganulv View Post
    The PRC was a supporter of UNITA and they are presently contributing to MINUSMA. But I take your meaning that they have not made any OEF scale commitments.
    World of difference between slipping some money and goods to insurgents whose cause aligns with your perceived interests and trying to suppress an insurgency and/or sustain a government to support your own investments.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  6. #86
    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
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    Default All true.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    World of difference between slipping some money and goods to insurgents whose cause aligns with your perceived interests and trying to suppress an insurgency and/or sustain a government to support your own investments.
    I don’t disagree with you there at all. I just wanted to point out that the PRC isn’t entirely new to the small wars game in Africa—they have dabbled.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    So far the Chinese approach has been to extract as much and as fast as possible with little effort to meddle in what passes for governance and no effort at all to solve any problems that aren't their own.
    So far maybe, but when they get into exploiting 50-100 year lifespan mines then your theory falls on its a...

    I believe you argue for the sake of it.

    That may of course change, if investments are threatened.
    Wow, now you are moving closer to reality.

    When that happens, the Chinese may do what the Westerners have traditionally not done: weigh the value of the investment against the cost of "peace and security actions", which of course have less to do with peace or security than with securing investments, not necessarily the same thing.
    Pure semantics (and a nebulous argument).

    As I stated watch what happens in South Sudan - with oil - and elsewhere with other longterm investments.

    For your edification peace and security are vital for an uninterupted flow of mining and the export of mined content. But then again you are just arguing for the sake of it.

    Depending on the results of that assessment, they may be smart enough to write investments off and walk away, or they may choose to jump into the grinder.
    Sounds good in theory but you discount the knock-on effect of the loss of the mined resources to the processing industries back in China.

    If they make the latter choice, we can all sit around here and watch the Chinese mess up a small war.
    Why? Just because the current and recent major powers scewed up small wars does that mean that the Chinese will be dumb enough to make the same mistakes? You are not producing a logical argument.

    I am confident that they can do that every bit as well as their Western predecessors. I expect that engagement in "peace and security actions" in Africa, or elsewhere outside China, will be far more a liability than an asset to China.
    So you really do think the Chinese are as dumb as the Brits, French and Americans when it comes to small wars.

    An ironic prediction, given the rather intense interest of so many Chinese in learning English and establishing any pied a terre they can outside China.
    You don't understand sarcasm do you? But then again if you believe that the Chinese migration is not a harbinger of more to come then I can't help you.

    Given the depth and breadth of China's domestic issues, the image of the all conquering Chinese juggernaut doesn't really hold up very well. The rest of the world is as likely to face the problem of a Chinese implosion (which would be a big problem) as it is to have to manage Chinese dominance.
    Is that your argument to 'do nothing'? You are very predictable ... and mostly wrong as a result.

    Probably straying onto the territory of the "China's Expanding Role..." thread, but so it goes.
    Glad you are not a moderator around here. Please do a liitle research and establish the level of Chinese migration is already seen by many Nigerians as problematic. Really Steve you can't continue to post such nonsense.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-27-2014 at 09:29 AM. Reason: fix quote

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    Default On Al Qaeda & Jihad.

    A few thoughts.

    Today, it is fashionable to treat organisations as franchisees of Al Qaeda. I don't think that's the only way to look at Islamist terrorism in Africa.

    I think Al Qaeda made the idea of violent jihad more attractive. The Kanuri members of Boko Haram don't have to look up to Osama Bin Ladin as an example of a jihadi - they have Muhammad Al-Kanemi (1776–1837). Similarly, the Hausa/Fulani jihadis have Usmanu Dan Fodio (1754 - 1817).

    There's a lot of history to ponder over - Osama just showed them "it could be done", but many young men aspire to be the next Dan Fodio or Al-Kanemi.

  9. #89
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    So far maybe, but when they get into exploiting 50-100 year lifespan mines then your theory falls on its a...
    That's why I said "so far". The past doesn't tell us what the Chinese will do in the future. It does give us some indication of their preferred methods. That of course may change, but it's a starting point.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    As I stated watch what happens in South Sudan - with oil - and elsewhere with other longterm investments.

    For your edification peace and security are vital for an uninterrupted flow of mining and the export of mined content. But then again you are just arguing for the sake of it.
    That comes down to a cost calculation: the cost of maintaining peace and security vs the cost of writing off the investment and replacing the resources with those acquired somewhere else. Western powers have often messed up this calculation by grossly underestimating the cost of achieving and maintaining peace and security, a mistake the Chinese might repeat, and by confounding the calculation with ideas about democracy, human rights, and other variations on the archaic "white man's burden" theme. That is a mistake the Chinese are a lot less likely to make.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Sounds good in theory but you discount the knock-on effect of the loss of the mined resources to the processing industries back in China.
    Only relevant if the resources cannot be replaced by similar resources from another source. Generally they can be: there are very few, if any, really unique single-source resources.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Why? Just because the current and recent major powers scewed up small wars does that mean that the Chinese will be dumb enough to make the same mistakes? You are not producing a logical argument.
    The first and foremost mistake is going into a war that makes no economic sense - where the cost of achieving the goals exceeds the value of the goals - or where the probability of success is low from the start. The Chinese may or may not be more ruthless and more rational than the Western powers in such calculations: they are in no way immune to ego, pride, or any of the other eccentricities that lead people to stick themselves into places better avoided.

    I don't see the neocolonial small wars of the West as enterprises that could have worked out if only they were "done right". There are things better not done, and trying to take over another country and run it for your own benefit is one of them. The age for such things is long gone.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    So you really do think the Chinese are as dumb as the Brits, French and Americans when it comes to small wars.
    We may find out one day. I don't think the possibility of China taking on a small war in Africa is something the US or "the West" should fear, and I see no reason to assume they'll be any better at it than anyone else has been. Their evident reluctance to take on such roles to date does suggest that they at least appreciate the costs and risks.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    But then again if you believe that the Chinese migration is not a harbinger of more to come then I can't help you.
    I do think it's a harbinger of things to come: a whole lot more Chinese will be looking to get out. I do not think they are going to be conquering all before them and reducing the rest of us to vassalhood.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Is that your argument to 'do nothing'? You are very predictable ... and mostly wrong as a result.
    Do nothing about what? If you mean about Chinese involvement in Africa, why would we want to "do something" about it? Not our business if Africans want to do business with Chinese, and in many cases it works to the benefit of the US and the West.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Glad you are not a moderator around here. Please do a liitle research and establish the level of Chinese migration is already seen by many Nigerians as problematic.
    The discussion has gone way outside anything specific to Nigeria, and seems more relevant to the generic "Chinese involvement in Africa" thread. In any case the probability of China taking over Nigeria seems exceedingly remote, and the probability of China solving any of Nigeria's problems - or trying to - approaches zero.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  10. #90
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Today, it is fashionable to treat organisations as franchisees of Al Qaeda. I don't think that's the only way to look at Islamist terrorism in Africa.
    That fashion has been active for a while... Southeast Asian terror organizations have been referred to as "Al Qaeda Franchises" since not long after 9/11. I think it's just a device used by lazy people who don't want to bother trying to understand various regional realities. The "franchise" idea sounds nice and neat, as if there's a coherent organizational chart somewhere with everybody in a nice clean pigeonhole... it just doesn't connect very well to reality.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    That fashion has been active for a while... Southeast Asian terror organizations have been referred to as "Al Qaeda Franchises" since not long after 9/11. I think it's just a device used by lazy people who don't want to bother trying to understand various regional realities. The "franchise" idea sounds nice and neat, as if there's a coherent organizational chart somewhere with everybody in a nice clean pigeonhole... it just doesn't connect very well to reality.
    Evangelical pastors in Africa aren't referred to as "Billy Graham franchisees" . Very lazy way of looking at this phenomena which is just as religious as Evangelical Christianity.

    We in Nigeria know that a Sufi influenced Islam was overshadowed by a Salafist Izala Movement which prepared the ground for violent Salafist organisations like Boko Haram.

  12. #92
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Very lazy way of looking at this phenomena which is just as religious as Evangelical Christianity.
    Lazy I think is the operative word... Al Qaeda "linked" movement around the world exhibit a huge diversity, both in the degree of "linkage" ad in their nature, which ranges form the purely religious through nationalist, tribal, profit-oriented, etc. Calling them "Al Qaeda franchises" lets people sidestep the burden of actually trying to understand any given group.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Question Odd advert on SWC

    A few minutes the adverts that appear in the top right of my VDU screen showed an odd picture of a smiling African army officer, with the bylyine '54 Ways to Upport Our Troops' and linked to this website:http://www.ipaidabribenaija.com/news...Fanpwgod75QAoA

    This story appears genuine.

    The first time I clicked the advert, which puzzled me, I had another website appear for a quite different service offering free webcam access:http://www.thefreecamsecret.com/ap/?...-1919&sanp=adc
    davidbfpo

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    Default Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram

    Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

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    Default Nigeria: watching and debating its future

    Corruption Hampers Fight Against Boko Haram

    Which explains a lot!



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-31-2014 at 10:37 PM. Reason: Copied here and edited

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    David, as I have said before the only reason way Nigerian troops need such support is because the national defense budget has already been looted by the politicians and the generals. The civilians have already paid .... Why do they need to pay again?

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A few minutes the adverts that appear in the top right of my VDU screen showed an odd picture of a smiling African army officer, with the bylyine '54 Ways to Upport Our Troops' and linked to this website:http://www.ipaidabribenaija.com/news...Fanpwgod75QAoA

    This story appears genuine.

    The first time I clicked the advert, which puzzled me, I had another website appear for a quite different service offering free webcam access:http://www.thefreecamsecret.com/ap/?...-1919&sanp=adc

  17. #97
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Looks like they are doing more than just looting the budget...

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle18959056/

    Nigerian generals, officers found guilty of aiding Boko Haram: report

    Ten generals and five other senior military officers were found guilty in courts-martial of providing arms and information to Boko Haram extremists, a leading Nigerian newspaper reported Tuesday...
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Dayuhan,

    There are Boko Haram sympathizers in the Nigerian military - just like there are Taliban sympathizers in the ISI.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    There are Boko Haram sympathizers in the Nigerian military - just like there are Taliban sympathizers in the ISI.
    But the ISI would appear to be providing arms and information to the Taliban as a part of official policy. What the Nigerian officers have been convicted of doing looks like a horse of a different color.
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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    Default Muslims, Christians Riot Over B'Haram Attacks In Borno, 100 Massacred

    This is what I was really afraid of.

    NB: This part of Nigeria isn't known for Muslim/Christian clashes. This is what Boko Haram will eventually lead to - 1. Reprisal attacks by Christians 2. Formation of Christian militias 3. "Lebanonization" or the situation in Central African Republic being repeated.

    Entirely predictable. The legitimacy of the state is being challenged.

    At least 100 people have been killed in religious riots in Attagara, Aghapalwa and Gwoshe border communities in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State.

    Christians and Muslims have been killing each other over series of attacks by the Islamic militants, Boko Haram.

    No fewer than nine Christian worshippers were said to have been killed last Sunday by the Islamic militants during a service in Attagara village with many others critically injured.

    According to reports, the youths in a spontaneous reprisal mobilised themselves and went after the terrorists, killing 37 of them.

    However, following the reprisal, sources said some Muslim youths felt the Christian youths did not attack Boko Haram but other Muslims whom they alleged were members of the sect who had attacked and killed Christians and burnt their churches in Attagara Village.

    Revenge attacks against the Christian youths led to the burning of the whole village and killing of over 100 villagers.

    An elder and member of the community, Ahmed Mohammed Ahmed, told journalists in Maiduguri that Boko Haram members came about 1a.m., attacking the villages as a punishment for killing their members who had earlier attacked churches and communities in the area.

    He, however, said that most of the villages in Gwoza were now divided along religious lines, as Christians living among Muslims had fled their homes to relocate to Christian dominated areas.

    Muslims, living in areas dominated by Christians have also fled to Muslim dominated areas.
    http://skytrendnews.com/index.php/ne...-100-massacred

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