Nigeria 2013-2017

[KingJaja]

Interesting paper on Northern Nigeria - addresses complexities that are glossed over by Western Media.

Northern Nigeria is witnessing an upheaval in its political and social space. Since the country’s return
to democracy in 1999 a growing number of actors, groups and movements have emanated from
the region, all purporting to speak for and represent the best interests of its people. The different
and often clashing voices that have emerged from the north include elements of the political
establishment, opposition, youth and civil society. At the very far end of the spectrum, it also includes
the bellicose voice of a violent insurgency from the northeast corner that is hostile towards the
Nigerian state and threatening to wreck the stability and security of the entire region. The ongoing
struggle for greater influence, inclusion, accountability and representation in northern Nigeria is
central to understanding transformations in the region’s politics, especially in the context of its
security challenges and a looming general election in 2015

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/fi...iaHoffmann.pdf

[davidbfpo]

Rather oddly a report from Xinhua, the Chinese official news agency:

Police in Nigeria have arrested Mohammed Zakari, a senior commander of the Boko Haram sect....The suspect was arrested on Saturday following a massive onslaught by security forces against the activities of insurgents in the Balmo forest in Bauchi State in the northeast.....arrested while fleeing from intensive counter insurgency operations around the forest.

Link:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/af..._126757364.htm


Checked on Google and there are many other reports on the arrest, all citing the official police spokesman; such as this Nigerian report:http://leadership.ng/news/377902/pol...-chief-butcher

[KingJaja]

Very interesting.

How is it possible for US military and intelligence sources on the ground, both in Iraq and Syria, to have missed the Islamic State group amassing its forces and invading Iraq? It is anyone's guess. But it's a disastrous oversight by any standard. The same applies to Nigeria, with the US and other western nations having woken up to the reality of the Boko Haram threat only when the situation started to spin out of control. All things considered, Jonathan's regime is still a better option than the coalition of the Muslim extremists that is shaping up now with an aim to win next year's elections.

Russian military analysts predict a rise in violence in Nigeria leading up to the presidential election next year. Some even claim that increased international aid, perhaps even an intervention, may be on the cards as the lessons of Iraq are starting to sink in, both in western and African capitals. As one Russian official told me, "Losing Nigeria to Muslim fundamentalists is simply a no go, whichever way you look at it. What is happening now in Iraq has been a rude wake-up call for Washington."

Some experts fear that Jonathan may have to widen the state of emergency in the north and even postpone the elections next year, if the situation does not improve. It is worth remembering that the leading APC candidate, Mahammadu Buhari, has been accused of inciting a violent uprising after losing the 2011 presidential election, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths. Next year, some fear, this could be even worse.

Wake up call or not, if the West and African countries don't take drastic steps to reign in Boko Haram and its backers, both in Nigeria and beyond, we might see the recently crowned "biggest economy in Africa" thrown into total disarray.

http://m.aljazeera.com/story/201471564859549939

[davidbfpo]

Can anyone identify what looks like an armoured turret on an obscured motor vehicle, on the left? It looks like it is manufactured, rather than a local DIY turret; with one fitted weapon.

[davidbfpo]

Yes there is endemic corruption, but this is - well - incredible:

On Tuesday, Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan asked the National Assembly for an extra $1bn to help the military fight Boko Haram.
But the parliamentarians have now gone on a two-month recess without debating the request. Nigeria's soldiers have frequently complained that the insurgents have superior firepower.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28374679

[JMA]

Yes there is endemic corruption, but this is - well - incredible:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28374679

Nothing about Nigeria is incredible:

A country so corrupt it would be better to burn our aid money

In essence, 80 per cent of the country’s substantial oil revenues go to the government, which disburses cash to individual governors and hundreds of their cronies, so effectively these huge sums remain in the hands of a mere 1 per cent of the Nigerian population.

But the sick joke is:

By the end of its term of office, the British Government will have handed over £1 billion in aid to Nigeria.

I would caution the yanks reading this not to laugh until they see what their government is pouring down the drain in Nigeria.

The only guys laughing are the 1% of Nigerians with their snouts firmly in the trough!

[SWJ Blog]

Investing in Powerful Networks in Nigeria?

Entry Excerpt:



--------
Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[KingJaja]

Analysts tend to focus on "big issues", but they might miss out on the small issues that are apparent to folks on the ground. Little things like inter-ethnic relationships & how Nigerians see each other.

Nigeria is a very large country & very diverse too. It is at the meeting point of two great missionary religions: Christianity & Islam. That in itself shouldn't be that much of a problem, but there is almost zero "diversity training", so there's very little appreciation or sympathy from Christians as to the Muslim point of view - and vice-versa.

It is little stuff like this that aggravates sectarian tensions, it breeds an atmosphere of mutual suspicion & makes it easier for groups like Boko Haram to operate.

Boko Haram has been in serious business for like half a decade, what impact has that had on the average Nigerian Christian & his perception of Islam - & what are the implications for Nigeria's future?

Questions like these are seldom asked by analysts, focus is on appeasing the Muslim community - but what exactly are the Christians thinking? Are they planning to retaliate? Will it have political consequences?

Those are important questions we ignore - at our peril.

[KingJaja]

This is unrelated to the general thrust of this thread, but I'd like to point out that the arbitrary nature of Africa's "borders" make it impossible to contain threats like Ebola. Let's consider Nigeria.

1. https://t.co/EDpqZaUSYw This town in SW Nigeria with direct links to Cote D'Ivoire

2. It is possible to go by speed boat direct from Uyo in Akwa Ibom state to Malabo in equatorial Guinea

3. Nigeria and Sudan have long historical links, impossible to polise movement between both nations.

Implications for national security and also spread of infectious diseases.

[KingJaja]

Discusses the links between Northern Sudan & Northern Nigeria.

Historically,socio-cultural and trade ties have been strong between Northern Nigeria and Northern Sudan,particularly around Kano and Bornu. For centuries, the Shuwa Arabs(who number perhaps half a million people in Adamawa,Yobe and Borno states) who are thought to have emigrated from Darfur have inhabited the area around the Biu Plateau,Mandara mountains and plains and the Lake Chad basin. There also exists a well-established Sudanese diaspora in Kano. As recently as 1900,Rabeh the son of a Darfuri Arab was temporal Lord of the Lake Chad region!

These migratory trends appear to have been influenced by the fact of Kano having been the central terminus and Bornu the eastern terminus of the Trans-Saharan trade routes. Indeed,there is a long established practice(which continues to this day) of sending children/wards of the nobility for training in Islamic law,philosophy and theology to the Sudan.This is particularly noticeable in emirates such as Kano,Katsina,Zaria,Sokoto,Adamawa and Bornu.
So,how did Nigerians end up becoming Sudanese nationals?

http://beegeagle.wordpress.com/2010/...-of-the-sudan/

[davidbfpo]

Gruesome video footage, images and testimonies gathered by Amnesty International provide fresh evidence of war crimes, including extrajudicial executions, and other serious human rights violations being carried out in north-eastern Nigeria as the fight by the military against Boko Haram and other armed groups intensifies.

The video is bad, especially at the end.

Link:http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/niger...mes-2014-08-05

[KingJaja]

David,

Nothing unusual about that. The Nigerian Army killed 2,400 in a single day in 1999 in Odi (in the Niger Delta). Amnesty and HRW protest, life goes on. That's the deeply distressing reality of life in Nigeria.

Another important (but often non discussed fact) is this: empathy is dead in Nigeria. Nigeria has witnessed so many gruesome killings that people no longer care (as long as it is not in their part of the country).

I live in Lagos, nobody in Lagos is bothered about this - and most definitely nobody from the Niger Delta or Southeast who will tell you that "Northerners weren't bothered when Northern dictators sent soldiers to massacre our people".

[davidbfpo]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

[KingJaja]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

Is Western involvement critical in solving this problem? I don't get a feel the Nigerian Army feels that way. They've already met the Sri Lankans, so that should tell you in what direction their minds are moving.

Worst case scenario, some territory is ceded to Boko Haram, life goes on, news is suppressed.

It is unfortunate, Nigeria was very "poorly designed" - bits and pieces of 1,000 year old Islamic states joined together with coastal forest states - which they had nothing in common with. That's why you have Sharia law in the North & Evangelical Christianity in the South.

There's very little cultural basis for a Nigerian state & if Boko Haram means the North leaves the South - I doubt if too many in the South will be bothered - if it doesn't shake up things too much.

[Bill Moore]

Is Western involvement critical in solving this problem? I don't get a feel the Nigerian Army feels that way. They've already met the Sri Lankans, so that should tell you in what direction their minds are moving.

This doesn't surprise me, and one the reasons I'm a vocal critic of U.S. COIN doctrine. It doesn't work, and yet we seem to be the only ones who don't recognize it. We promote political correctness over combat and strategy effectiveness. There are many options for countries to consider when it comes to security advice, and it is only logical they'll turn to a country they perceive to be successful. Tactically the Sri Lankan approach may work, but ultimately I suspect it will only the make situation worse. The Sri Lankan approach doesn't facilitate consolidating the victory in a way that leads to an enduring peace.

On the other hand, the U.S. isn't as competitive as it used to be when a country is looking for security assistance. The exception is when the U.S. is throwing money at the country (buying influence). It's sad if we're not sought out for our strategy and military competence. I suspect that is gradually will erode our influence globally as we lose our competitive advantage. When countries are facing existential threats they'll seek approaches they think will work. We need to find a better balance between promoting our ideas, morals, etc. with military effectiveness.

Final point, we create our own asymmetric disadvantages with our excessive legalistic approach to war.

[Bill Moore]

KingJaja,

Agreed on how Nigerians react. I would speculate that such footage could undermine Western involvement, especially if parliamentary approval is needed. It may also turn off Amnesty members, who recoil at the brutality of both sides. Above all non-African viewers will simply say "That's Africa, best to stay out and uninvolved".

The Nigerian military isn't doing itself any favors. It is tragic if confirmed these are military men (uniforms alone doesn't confirm that), especially after the years of effort dedicated to help reform the Nigerian military. Maybe in the end those who say this is Africa, and it is best to stay out are ultimately right?

[JMA]

The video is bad, especially at the end.

Link:http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/niger...mes-2014-08-05

That this video surprises people says a lot in itself.

The main problem is that the people who make the decisions on Africa in Washington and the European capitals have absolutely no idea of how Africa 'works'.

[JMA]

The Nigerian military isn't doing itself any favors. It is tragic if confirmed these are military men (uniforms alone doesn't confirm that), especially after the years of effort dedicated to help reform the Nigerian military. Maybe in the end those who say this is Africa, and it is best to stay out are ultimately right?

Bill, you must please listen to KingJaja on this... this stuff has been happening for years not only internally in Nigeria... but also under ECOWAS interventions in Sierra Leone and Liberia. How is it that you can not be aware of this stuff... which BTW is not limited to Nigeria.

[JMA]

Pray tell me, if these boundaries are so ridiculous, why after 50 years of independence has nothing been done about it?

Why if the 'coastal forrest states' have enough in common have they not just abandoned the northern 'Islamic states' to their own devices? Methinks that is far to simple an option.

Is Western involvement critical in solving this problem? I don't get a feel the Nigerian Army feels that way. They've already met the Sri Lankans, so that should tell you in what direction their minds are moving.

Worst case scenario, some territory is ceded to Boko Haram, life goes on, news is suppressed.

It is unfortunate, Nigeria was very "poorly designed" - bits and pieces of 1,000 year old Islamic states joined together with coastal forest states - which they had nothing in common with. That's why you have Sharia law in the North & Evangelical Christianity in the South.

There's very little cultural basis for a Nigerian state & if Boko Haram means the North leaves the South - I doubt if too many in the South will be bothered - if it doesn't shake up things too much.

[JMA]

Nigerians don't need any guidence from Sri Lanka as they are well acquainted targeting civilians when the armed groups are too difficult to find.

I suggest that this is merely a 'trick' to justify the only approach they know... so when the bodies of the civilians begin to pile up they will have a excuse saying they are merely following the Sri Lankan doctrine.

Your comment on the legalistic approach to war is correct in that - certainly in Afghanistan - you have hog-tied your troops to the extent the Taliban can and will declare victory. You can see this can't you?

This doesn't surprise me, and one the reasons I'm a vocal critic of U.S. COIN doctrine. It doesn't work, and yet we seem to be the only ones who don't recognize it. We promote political correctness over combat and strategy effectiveness. There are many options for countries to consider when it comes to security advice, and it is only logical they'll turn to a country they perceive to be successful. Tactically the Sri Lankan approach may work, but ultimately I suspect it will only the make situation worse. The Sri Lankan approach doesn't facilitate consolidating the victory in a way that leads to an enduring peace.

On the other hand, the U.S. isn't as competitive as it used to be when a country is looking for security assistance. The exception is when the U.S. is throwing money at the country (buying influence). It's sad if we're not sought out for our strategy and military competence. I suspect that is gradually will erode our influence globally as we lose our competitive advantage. When countries are facing existential threats they'll seek approaches they think will work. We need to find a better balance between promoting our ideas, morals, etc. with military effectiveness.

Final point, we create our own asymmetric disadvantages with our excessive legalistic approach to war.