CAR Central African Republic: Fragile, failed and forlorn

[davidbfpo]

I am not advocating the UK intervenes in CAR, although it appears this week we offered the French airlift support.

I too am aware that media access and reporting of conflict is neither impartial or complete. Somehow I expect there is another bloody conflict under-way in Africa which has not been reported, let gained "front page" attention here.

For example I cannot recall much reporting let alone footage of the Sudanese civil war, then along came Darfur which had some and South Sudan almost appeared without attention - although there was some.

Try this C4 report, by an experienced reporter:http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thoms...-republic/6683

Incidentally FOMAC troops have been active, with one Congolese soldier killed this week; via BBC World Service reporter Thomas Fessey, on Twitter as @bbcfessey.

[Bill Moore]

David, the report was insightful but seemed to dismiss the fact that the Seleka militia is mostly composed of Muslims, which reinforces the characterization that this conflict may have, or is starting to take on a religious conflict character. At least that is what some of the Christians in CAR believe, and perception is reality when it comes making decision on how to respond.

From Christian news sources:

The Vatican

http://www.news.va/en/news/africacen...a-consists-lar

AFRICA/CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC - "Seleka consists largely of jihadists, our situation is similar to that of Mali," says the Bishop of Bangassou

The rebels’ goal is to overthrow the current government and impose a regime of Islamic imprint. These are the jihadists, probably paid for by someone from the outside," said the Bishop. "The situation is very similar to that of Mali, but the Central African Republic does not seem to alarm the world in the same way."In the Country there are troops of the Central Africa Countries , plus a South African military contingent to protect the "sensitive areas" of the capital. "80-90% of the Country is in the hands of Seleka, 5-6 guerrilla groups gathered under this symbol. They consist largely of jihadists who speak Arabic and who after conquering other areas of the Country are also taking the east, where they have killed and raped civilians, looted homes and Christian missions, but not mosques. In the conquered cities they have destroyed the municipal registers and courts, an action aimed at destroying the historical memory of the local population," said Mgr. Aguirre Munos.

The Presbyterian Church

http://www.pcusa.org/news/2013/12/2/...al-african-re/

Religious conflict rips through Central African Republic

Seleka was formed in December 2012, when Islamists and other rebel groups from Chad and Sudan joined forces. The militants had crossed into the country, attacking government installations and destroying churches and church missions, businesses and homes, Christian agencies report.

Church leaders say the violence is surging, while U.N. officials say the situation is slowly degenerating into a Christian-Muslim conflict as the rebels escalate attacks and Christian militia retaliate. Some have voiced fears of a potential genocide.

“We did not have tensions until the arrival of Seleka,” said the Rev. Andre Golike, president of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Central African Republic

I see no indication at this time any of this is associated with AQ affiliates but it appears to be more of an attempt to mobilize segments of the population by using religion. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[carl]

I see no indication at this time any of this is associated with AQ affiliates but it appears to be more of an attempt to mobilize segments of the population by using religion. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Does it matter in the long run if Seleka is associated with AQ right now, or if they ever associate with AQ itself? AQ, or a variation thereof, is going to go to them. We are getting to the point of Christians vs. Muslims in Nigeria, in Kenya, in Sudan (for decades) and now in the CAR. This will be more than interesting, this may turn out lethal for millions of people. I think it is far more than trying to take advantage of a local situation.

In fact, Muslim persecution of Christians it seems to me is growing everywhere in some Muslim countries, lethal persecution. This problem isn't going to go away and is an ongoing human tragedy that we not only say little about, we don't even seem to see it.

[Bill Moore]

Does it matter in the long run if Seleka is associated with AQ right now, or if they ever associate with AQ itself? AQ, or a variation thereof, is going to go to them. We are getting to the point of Christians vs. Muslims in Nigeria, in Kenya, in Sudan (for decades) and now in the CAR. This will be more than interesting, this may turn out lethal for millions of people. I think it is far more than trying to take advantage of a local situation.

In fact, Muslim persecution of Christians it seems to me is growing everywhere in some Muslim countries, lethal persecution. This problem isn't going to go away and is an ongoing human tragedy that we not only say little about, we don't even seem to see it.

Carl I agree with you, I put the caveats in my response to damper the automatic responses from self-proclaimed "more rational" who dismiss the character the conflict we're in because it doesn't conform to their view of the world.

[davidbfpo]

There is a new backgrounder on the situation, the author is familiar with Africa and has worked on AU peacekeeping before. Within the conclusion is this salutary reminder:

More than a dozen peace support operations have been deployed since 1996 and none has made any substantive progress in addressing the root causes of the CAR’s chronic lack of governance and security.

Link:http://oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/pu...al_african_rep

There is a SWJBlog item on the USA saving CAR from being another Rwanda, with to date three comments: http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the...another-rwanda

[jmm99]

At least, that's Deutsche Welle's analysis, French troops fail to stop the violence in CAR:

France launched Operation Sangaris one month ago in a bid to stop the catastrophe unfolding in the Central African Republic. But the violence has only escalated, and the number of displaced has risen to one million.
...
One reason for the failure of the mission was that there were not enough soldiers, said Jean-Claude Allard, director of research at the French Institute for International and Strategic Relations. "With 1,600 soldiers, how can you even police Bangui, which has almost one million inhabitants?" Even the planned increase of MISCA troops to 6,000 would not be enough to restore security, according to Allard.

French troops are powerless

What is even more problematic than insufficient troop strength is that "there is no political solution to the conflict in sight," Allard said. For them to still achieve their goals, the international community and France would have to stay in Central Africa for a long time, Allard said. A "brief" deployment – the French government had spoken of about six months – is out of the question.
....

Stan's comments to the SWJ article on CAR (cited by David in the prior post) are well founded in reality (something not understood by avid interveners and state builders) - here's some Stan:

100M or even the 700M that I had at my disposal in the 80s and 90s would not fix Rwanda then and not CAR now. We lack engagement because the cold war is over and a tiny land-locked country with little to offer is not enticing enough for the American people nor USG. No surprises there !

You can’t prevent something you know little about. We suck at Africa and we have no investment other than appeasing our European partners with airlift. Rwanda then, CAR now.

Do you seriously think an MSG is going to change things ? Why ? Modern comms ? How about old fashion real intel work on the ground with the locals ? If the embassy does an evac, it’s because the insurance costs for all those souls is far more costly than a slight black eye. Done it 4 times and it doesn’t get better. All the gear in the world won’t save your alpha when you are not authorized to return fire. DUH !

What difference does it make if the embassy and DAO are fully manned ? Underfunded ? We do that all the time. Under strength ? We do that to this day. What’s the point ?

Investing in preventing something we know nothing about is anything but cheap. We do not need an engagement with boots and equipment in a country that will go Tango Uniform with the next dictator. Providing resources so they can do what ? Kill their own civilians ? Done that too bro ! ...

And so it seems to go on ... and on.

Regards

Mike

[jmm99]

You may or may not buy Marvin Harris; but, let's start with kings - actually, the lack thereof.

NY Times, Last-Ditch Effort Emerges to Restore Order in Central African Republic (by ADAM NOSSITER, JAN. 17, 2014):

BANGUI, Central African Republic — By midafternoon, a hot breeze blows down empty corridors of the mostly vacant national assembly building here. Hundreds of grim soldiers, their uniforms looted or hidden away, mass in civilian clothes after going AWOL for months. Around abandoned university buildings, idle students loiter, their classes long canceled.

The state no longer exists in the Central African Republic. Civil servants do not go to their offices, taxes are not collected and all the schools are closed. There is no budget, no army, no police force, no president, no Parliament, no judges or jails, and at least a fifth of the population has fled. After nine months of violence and well over a thousand dead since early December alone, Christians and Muslims fear and attack one another. Neighbor has turned against neighbor, and every night there are killings.

Now, an unlikely experiment in instant nation-building is underway: a vote for president. Inspired equally by desperation and pressure from abroad, a “national transition council” of 135 rebels, rivals, politicians and everyone in between is making a last-ditch lunge for order, hoping to choose a new leader for this fractured country within days. ...

Samantha Power can photo-op as much as she wants,



but the US is not about to solve this problem - even if we engage Cass Sunstein.

Cuz, here we have la piece de resistance, which takes us back to the NYT article:

Last week, dozens here witnessed the depths of the sectarian tensions as a young Muslim man was pulled from a minibus, stabbed and beaten to death, then burned and cut up by a mob of 15 young Christian men.

“I killed him, then I sucked his blood,” said Magloire Wounthnga, a 15-year-old dropout and orphan, with a sharp machete stuffed into his trousers, a dagger at his side and a thick tangle of beads and crucifixes hanging from his neck. “I burned him, then I ate him, with bread and manioc paste.”

Mr. Wounthnga said he was merely taking revenge because the Seleka had killed his pregnant sister. Next to him, His friend Stany Noakpe, 21, also said he had acted in a spirit of revenge. Their neutral tones spoke to the entrenched antagonism between Christians and the minority Muslim population here — and to the difficult task that confronts the transition council members in alleviating it.

Mr Wounthnga's recipe seems more substantial than the good doctor's side dish of fava beans - although one might want to include a nice chianti (Youtube).

Regards

Mike

PS: "Lead Photo: U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power meets with peacekeepers from Burundi in the Central African Republic." [link] From Burundi ! You can't get much better (Rwanda, Congo) - these troopers seem a civilized 21st century lot, but are they ?