CAR Central African Republic: Fragile, failed and forlorn

[Red Rat]

Because the violence is still predominantly criminal and not political in nature I think this will not attract attention for intervention.

[KingJaja]

davidbfpo,

The situation in the Central African Republic (CAR) for those without weapons has steadily worsened, with some calling it genocide, others it's a disaster etc:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25095471

Somehow I doubt that our mainly US readership will be aware, let alone concerned. CAR is after all in the heart of 'The Dark Continent', was a French colony and Africa - via its states - needs to look after its own. In my limited reading I note the absence of the R2P advocates.

Sadly I expect the situation in CAR will move along steadily, with the likely exception of the capital Bangui, where a small, now reinforced French presence (410 now, rising to 750) may act as a restraint. It is unclear what effect the regional African intervention presence has; it is called FOMAC (2200 strong, EU-funded and present since 2008), it may become an AU if not UN mission.

Pre-crisis background, note the CAR has a long history post-independence of tyranny:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13150040

The last two reports, the South African backgrounder is exceptionally useful:http://gga.org/stories/editions/aif-...penNetworksCRM and Al-Jazeera is good all-rounder:http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/fea...L49Plc.twitter

CAR isn't "far" - there's just Northern Cameroon between it and Northern Nigeria. You find the same or similar ethnic groups in those places & colonial boundaries don't mean much.

I keep insisting that US shouldn't be fighting terrorism in Africa, it should seek to understand state failure - that is what's going on hear.

And yes, a Western journalist told me that he spoke to a Nigerian (from Kaduna in the North), fighting with the Seleka rebels.

I hear Boko Haram is already setting up shop there - & if they do, nothing can stop them.

[jmm99]

1. Should "anyone" be doing "something" about the CAR; and, if so,

2. Who is that "anyone" who should be doing "something"; and what is that "something" ?

That country is at least known to me. My aunt, a missionary, served pre-WWII and post-WWII "tours" in the CAR (when it was the Ubangi-Chari area of French Equatorial Africa) at Fort Crampel (now Kaga Bandoro in the Gribingui prefecture), roughly 300 km NNE of Bangui:



Another important question to me is why the CAR (Wiki) has had "a long history post-independence of tyranny" ? Integral to that question is what was its pre-colonial history of governance - and of exploitation by its northern and eastern neighbors (mostly Islamic), especially with respect to the slave trade ? If the area has had a centuries-old tradition of rule by "strong men", "Western democratic" interveners will have a very rough row to hoe (IMO).

As KJ has reminded us many times: look to the ethnicities and religions. So, from the Wiki:

The nation is divided into over 80 ethnic groups, each having its own language. ... Fifty percent of the population of CAR are Christians (Protestant 25%, Roman Catholic 25%), while 35% of the population maintain indigenous beliefs. Islam is practiced by 15% of the country's population.

From what little pre-colonial history I found, Ubangi-Chari was dominated by the adjacent Islamic states to its north and east. The seeds for an ethno-religious conflict are certainly there.

Finally, KJ has also noted the relationship of Boko Haram to the former Kanem, Bornu and Kanem-Bornu empires:



This map shows the farthest extent of the medieval Kanem-Bornu state.

Thus, Boko Haram has its "modern" Islamist aspect; but also a "nationalistic" aspect (based on the medieval empires) and an ethnic aspect (the Kanuri people), as well. I'm reminded of the Pashtuns of Astan and Pstan.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

JMM99 asked:

1. Should "anyone" be doing "something" about the CAR; and, if so,

2. Who is that "anyone" who should be doing "something"; and what is that "something" ?

Yes, the "anyone" should be African only, maybe with non-African financial, logistic and other support. If Africa thinks it is a problem for them, a moot question, there are some who have the means.

The "something" is to restrain the 'men of violence' who currently are on a looting plus spree. The first step in 'peacemaking' and some form of settlement, even if that means one day partition - South Sudan took a long time to get independence.

Easy from a faraway armchair.

[KingJaja]

Davidbfpo,

The more important question should be - "is the established post-colonial order, which the Central African Republic represents sustainable, if not, then why not allow the natural order to prevail"?

Read me, I've kept on insisting that most African states are not nations but ex-colonial administrative units. There's no point beating around the bush or wasting time.

What if a similar situation occurs in a really big state like Nigeria - who will intervene?

[jmm99]

1. What is the "natural order" in the CAR, a small nation of ~5 million people with ~90 ethnicities ?

2. What is the "natural order" in Nigeria, a large nation of ~180 million people with ~250-500 ethnicities ?

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Davidbfpo,

The more important question should be - "is the established post-colonial order, which the Central African Republic represents sustainable, if not, then why not allow the natural order to prevail"?

Read me, I've kept on insisting that most African states are not nations but ex-colonial administrative units. There's no point beating around the bush or wasting time.

I agree that Africa is burdened with 'ex-colonial administrative units', but am unsure if anyone knows what the 'natural order' is. Surely that 'order' will take time to evolve, until that presumably happy state is achieved, what should those outside CAR do? My focus is on the safety of the unarmed civilians caught up in the situation today.

I'd rather leave alone Nigeria's future here, but do recall some of scenes from your own civil war long ago. The people of CAR have not had a happy, let alone natural order for a long time - all from a comfortable armchair far away.

[Bill Moore]

I agree that Africa is burdened with 'ex-colonial administrative units', but am unsure if anyone knows what the 'natural order' is. Surely that 'order' will take time to evolve, until that presumably happy state is achieved, what should those outside CAR do? My focus is on the safety of the unarmed civilians caught up in the situation today.

I'd rather leave alone Nigeria's future here, but do recall some of scenes from your own civil war long ago. The people of CAR have not had a happy, let alone natural order for a long time - all from a comfortable armchair far away.

How can it evolve if outsiders intervene to maintain the status quo?

[TheCurmudgeon]

I keep insisting that US shouldn't be fighting terrorism in Africa, it should seek to understand state failure - that is what's going on hear.

...

I hear Boko Haram is already setting up shop there - & if they do, nothing can stop them.

Interesting. Assuming you are correct, the question should be "what does an organization like Boko Haram offer the population that other political structures do not?"

[KingJaja]

TheCurmudgeon,

Interesting. Assuming you are correct, the question should be "what does an organization like Boko Haram offer the population that other political structures do not?"

There's very little government presence outside Africa's capital cities (or regional administrative centers), so it is extremely easy for Boko Haram to establish better governance than a disturbingly large number of African states.

In North East Nigeria the local government system has broken down, literacy rates are as low as 20% - government basically does not exist in large swathes of territory. That's why Boko Haram can be firmly entrenched.

Central African Republic is much worse governed than Nigeria - at least we can agree on that? So I don't see how an organisation, Boko Haram, that has the resources and capacity to challenge the Nigerian state, will have problems plying its trade in CAR.

[carl]

Interesting. Assuming you are correct, the question should be "what does an organization like Boko Haram offer the population that other political structures do not?"

I think what the population wants is beside the point. The population is very poor and not organized. Boko Haram is organized and a small, armed organized group always can exercise great power over a very large groups of disorganized people whether they like it or not.

We seem to forget this too often I think. Tyrants are very capable of ruling over populations that don't like them much.

[carl]

King Jaja:

News reports today say fighting has broken out in Bangui. Reuters reports that some of this fighting is assuming a Christian vs. Muslim character. You have said that if the Muslims push to hard against the Christians in Africa, things could get very, very bad.

Could you comment on this?

[jmm99]

HRW Report, “I Can Still Smell the Dead” - The Forgotten Human Rights Crisis in the Central African Republic (Sep 2013) (89 pp, maps & photos):

On December 10, 2012, an alliance of three major rebel groups known as the Seleka coalition began a campaign to overthrow the government of President François Bozizé of the Central African Republic (CAR). On March 24, 2013, Seleka rebels took control of Bangui, CAR’s capital, and also seized control of 15 of the country’s 16 provinces. Michel Djotodia, one of the rebel groups’ leaders, suspended the constitution, and installed himself as interim president—a role to which he was subsequently elected by a transitional government. Elections are to be held after 18 months.

The Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, the main national language) said they aimed to liberate the country and bring peace and security to the people. But for most Central Africans, 2013 has been a dark year, marked by rising violence and vicious Seleka attacks against civilians in Bangui and the provinces. With no checks on their power, the Seleka rule arbitrarily and with complete impunity, with the government failing to follow through on its public commitment to bring to justice those responsible for recent abuses.

Seleka forces have destroyed numerous rural villages, looted country-wide, and raped women and girls. In one attack in Bangui on March 25, Seleka fighters raped two sisters, aged 33 and 23, in their home. The younger sister, who was eight-months pregnant, lost her baby the next day. Rape survivors lack access to adequate health care due to insecurity and lack of health services. Civilians who have been abused have nowhere to turn: the civilian administrative state in CAR has collapsed. In most provinces there are no police or courts. Many health clinics across the country do not function, and in at least one town a hospital has been occupied by the Seleka; most schools are closed.
...
As the Seleka moved down to Bangui from the northeast, they captured major towns along the way. In these towns, the Seleka immediately began to loot the homes of the civilian population; those who tried to resist were threatened, injured, or killed.

Human Rights Watch documented attacks on villages by Seleka forces and their allies in northern CAR betweenFebruary and June 2013. This research focused on a broad triangle of territory within the main roads linking Kaga Bandoro, Batangafo, and Bossangoa.

Evidence indicates that Seleka fighters forced villagers out of their homes in order to loot them. Some villagers reported that the attacks were designed to create space for members of the Mbarara community—nomadic pastoralists who move their cattle between Chad and the Central African Republic and have recently been allied with the Seleka.

Human Rights Watch recorded more than 1,000 homes destroyed in at least 34 villages along these roads. Schools and churches were also looted and burned. The Seleka killed scores of civilians while they were trying to flee and have prompted whole communities to flee into the bush—including 113 families from Maorka.

Regards

Mike