CAR Central African Republic: Fragile, failed and forlorn

[Bill Moore]

Does it matter in the long run if Seleka is associated with AQ right now, or if they ever associate with AQ itself? AQ, or a variation thereof, is going to go to them. We are getting to the point of Christians vs. Muslims in Nigeria, in Kenya, in Sudan (for decades) and now in the CAR. This will be more than interesting, this may turn out lethal for millions of people. I think it is far more than trying to take advantage of a local situation.

In fact, Muslim persecution of Christians it seems to me is growing everywhere in some Muslim countries, lethal persecution. This problem isn't going to go away and is an ongoing human tragedy that we not only say little about, we don't even seem to see it.

Carl I agree with you, I put the caveats in my response to damper the automatic responses from self-proclaimed "more rational" who dismiss the character the conflict we're in because it doesn't conform to their view of the world.

[davidbfpo]

There is a new backgrounder on the situation, the author is familiar with Africa and has worked on AU peacekeeping before. Within the conclusion is this salutary reminder:

More than a dozen peace support operations have been deployed since 1996 and none has made any substantive progress in addressing the root causes of the CAR’s chronic lack of governance and security.

Link:http://oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/pu...al_african_rep

There is a SWJBlog item on the USA saving CAR from being another Rwanda, with to date three comments: http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the...another-rwanda

[jmm99]

At least, that's Deutsche Welle's analysis, French troops fail to stop the violence in CAR:

France launched Operation Sangaris one month ago in a bid to stop the catastrophe unfolding in the Central African Republic. But the violence has only escalated, and the number of displaced has risen to one million.
...
One reason for the failure of the mission was that there were not enough soldiers, said Jean-Claude Allard, director of research at the French Institute for International and Strategic Relations. "With 1,600 soldiers, how can you even police Bangui, which has almost one million inhabitants?" Even the planned increase of MISCA troops to 6,000 would not be enough to restore security, according to Allard.

French troops are powerless

What is even more problematic than insufficient troop strength is that "there is no political solution to the conflict in sight," Allard said. For them to still achieve their goals, the international community and France would have to stay in Central Africa for a long time, Allard said. A "brief" deployment – the French government had spoken of about six months – is out of the question.
....

Stan's comments to the SWJ article on CAR (cited by David in the prior post) are well founded in reality (something not understood by avid interveners and state builders) - here's some Stan:

100M or even the 700M that I had at my disposal in the 80s and 90s would not fix Rwanda then and not CAR now. We lack engagement because the cold war is over and a tiny land-locked country with little to offer is not enticing enough for the American people nor USG. No surprises there !

You can’t prevent something you know little about. We suck at Africa and we have no investment other than appeasing our European partners with airlift. Rwanda then, CAR now.

Do you seriously think an MSG is going to change things ? Why ? Modern comms ? How about old fashion real intel work on the ground with the locals ? If the embassy does an evac, it’s because the insurance costs for all those souls is far more costly than a slight black eye. Done it 4 times and it doesn’t get better. All the gear in the world won’t save your alpha when you are not authorized to return fire. DUH !

What difference does it make if the embassy and DAO are fully manned ? Underfunded ? We do that all the time. Under strength ? We do that to this day. What’s the point ?

Investing in preventing something we know nothing about is anything but cheap. We do not need an engagement with boots and equipment in a country that will go Tango Uniform with the next dictator. Providing resources so they can do what ? Kill their own civilians ? Done that too bro ! ...

And so it seems to go on ... and on.

Regards

Mike

[jmm99]

You may or may not buy Marvin Harris; but, let's start with kings - actually, the lack thereof.

NY Times, Last-Ditch Effort Emerges to Restore Order in Central African Republic (by ADAM NOSSITER, JAN. 17, 2014):

BANGUI, Central African Republic — By midafternoon, a hot breeze blows down empty corridors of the mostly vacant national assembly building here. Hundreds of grim soldiers, their uniforms looted or hidden away, mass in civilian clothes after going AWOL for months. Around abandoned university buildings, idle students loiter, their classes long canceled.

The state no longer exists in the Central African Republic. Civil servants do not go to their offices, taxes are not collected and all the schools are closed. There is no budget, no army, no police force, no president, no Parliament, no judges or jails, and at least a fifth of the population has fled. After nine months of violence and well over a thousand dead since early December alone, Christians and Muslims fear and attack one another. Neighbor has turned against neighbor, and every night there are killings.

Now, an unlikely experiment in instant nation-building is underway: a vote for president. Inspired equally by desperation and pressure from abroad, a “national transition council” of 135 rebels, rivals, politicians and everyone in between is making a last-ditch lunge for order, hoping to choose a new leader for this fractured country within days. ...

Samantha Power can photo-op as much as she wants,



but the US is not about to solve this problem - even if we engage Cass Sunstein.

Cuz, here we have la piece de resistance, which takes us back to the NYT article:

Last week, dozens here witnessed the depths of the sectarian tensions as a young Muslim man was pulled from a minibus, stabbed and beaten to death, then burned and cut up by a mob of 15 young Christian men.

“I killed him, then I sucked his blood,” said Magloire Wounthnga, a 15-year-old dropout and orphan, with a sharp machete stuffed into his trousers, a dagger at his side and a thick tangle of beads and crucifixes hanging from his neck. “I burned him, then I ate him, with bread and manioc paste.”

Mr. Wounthnga said he was merely taking revenge because the Seleka had killed his pregnant sister. Next to him, His friend Stany Noakpe, 21, also said he had acted in a spirit of revenge. Their neutral tones spoke to the entrenched antagonism between Christians and the minority Muslim population here — and to the difficult task that confronts the transition council members in alleviating it.

Mr Wounthnga's recipe seems more substantial than the good doctor's side dish of fava beans - although one might want to include a nice chianti (Youtube).

Regards

Mike

PS: "Lead Photo: U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power meets with peacekeepers from Burundi in the Central African Republic." [link] From Burundi ! You can't get much better (Rwanda, Congo) - these troopers seem a civilized 21st century lot, but are they ?

[Stan]

PS: "Lead Photo: U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power meets with peacekeepers from Burundi in the Central African Republic." [link] From Burundi ! You can't get much better (Rwanda, Congo) - these troopers seem a civilized 21st century lot, but are they ?

Hey Mike !

Water bottles, dark shades and clean uniforms with spit-shined boots and then this....

A top U.S. diplomat known for her expertise in genocide arrived in the violence-wracked Central African Republic on Thursday to gauge the growing sectarian unrest there between Christians and Muslims.

Not civilized, but prepared for Western diplomats and donations

Regards, Stan

PS. I bet she was itching to be out of there fast !

[AdamG]

The Feel Good Pointless Gesture of 2014 -

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will send up to 1,000 soldiers to help stabilise Central African Republic, deploying its first major army operation in six years, EU foreign ministers decided on Monday.

The EU has been spurred into action by communal bloodshed in Central African Republic that led a senior U.N. official to warn last week of a risk of genocide there without a more decisive international response.

It is not yet clear which EU countries will contribute troops. Estonia has promised soldiers, and Lithuania, Slovenia, Finland, Belgium, Poland and Sweden are among countries considering sending troops, diplomats say.

Large EU countries such as Britain, Germany and Italy have said they will not send ground troops.

http://news.yahoo.com/eu-send-milita...153247800.html

[davidbfpo]

There has been some reporting on the situation in CAR, mainly in the capital where it is clear control remains elusive. Thomas Fessy, the BBC World Service (French service), tweets most days and is worth following @bbcfessy

As for other EU nations supplying forces "that'll be the day". I did spot a French agency report that the Franco-German brigade was an option; it appears FRG declined that. For several years now NATO / EU have maintained 'standby' brigades for such operations, so sending a thousand soldiers - as cited - looks like a piecemeal response.

HRW have issued a new report, which on a quick read is a good backgrounder:http://www.hrw.org/node/121434/section/1

A glimpse into the operational, logistic realities:http://www.stripes.com/news/for-us-f...reminder=later