CAR Central African Republic: Fragile, failed and forlorn

[davidbfpo]

How can it evolve if outsiders intervene to maintain the status quo?

Bill,

Touche!

As I said my focus is on the safety of the unarmed civilians caught up in the situation today. Intervention in my day-dreaming would hardly maintain the status quo; rather create - hopefully - a period of less violence, even calm. Then perhaps new relationships, even borders might be reached. From my early reading (cited Post 1) it appeared that CAR already had communal differences, just that the CAR state didn't see them as borders.

All maybe hopelessly optimistic, too many maybe's.

[Bill Moore]

Bill,

Touche!

As I said my focus is on the safety of the unarmed civilians caught up in the situation today. Intervention in my day-dreaming would hardly maintain the status quo; rather create - hopefully - a period of less violence, even calm. Then perhaps new relationships, even borders might be reached. From my early reading (cited Post 1) it appeared that CAR already had communal differences, just that the CAR state didn't see them as borders.

All maybe hopelessly optimistic, too many maybe's.

David,

I didn't consider my comment touche or emotional at all, but it was a simple statement with deep meaning. How do we expect Africa to evolve in a way that will eventually result in an acceptable norm for them that is relatively peaceful if we keep intervening to maintain the status quo.

I suspect most of us the West have concerns with unarmed civilians getting killed in any conflict, we definitely killed quite a few ourselves in our recent conflicts and tens of thousands of them during WWII, so is that really a criteria for intervention? Sounds like R2P and the CNN effect all over again, and while not discounting it, since this is principally a conflict between peoples not states, does being unarmed mean you're not a target (to the belligerents)?

I'm not taking a stand one way or the other, I only have a limited familiarity with CAR, but I'm exploring our assumptions for intervention. Short term we may save lives, longer term I'm not so sure.

[davidbfpo]

I am not advocating the UK intervenes in CAR, although it appears this week we offered the French airlift support.

I too am aware that media access and reporting of conflict is neither impartial or complete. Somehow I expect there is another bloody conflict under-way in Africa which has not been reported, let gained "front page" attention here.

For example I cannot recall much reporting let alone footage of the Sudanese civil war, then along came Darfur which had some and South Sudan almost appeared without attention - although there was some.

Try this C4 report, by an experienced reporter:http://blogs.channel4.com/alex-thoms...-republic/6683

Incidentally FOMAC troops have been active, with one Congolese soldier killed this week; via BBC World Service reporter Thomas Fessey, on Twitter as @bbcfessey.

[Bill Moore]

David, the report was insightful but seemed to dismiss the fact that the Seleka militia is mostly composed of Muslims, which reinforces the characterization that this conflict may have, or is starting to take on a religious conflict character. At least that is what some of the Christians in CAR believe, and perception is reality when it comes making decision on how to respond.

From Christian news sources:

The Vatican

http://www.news.va/en/news/africacen...a-consists-lar

AFRICA/CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC - "Seleka consists largely of jihadists, our situation is similar to that of Mali," says the Bishop of Bangassou

The rebels’ goal is to overthrow the current government and impose a regime of Islamic imprint. These are the jihadists, probably paid for by someone from the outside," said the Bishop. "The situation is very similar to that of Mali, but the Central African Republic does not seem to alarm the world in the same way."In the Country there are troops of the Central Africa Countries , plus a South African military contingent to protect the "sensitive areas" of the capital. "80-90% of the Country is in the hands of Seleka, 5-6 guerrilla groups gathered under this symbol. They consist largely of jihadists who speak Arabic and who after conquering other areas of the Country are also taking the east, where they have killed and raped civilians, looted homes and Christian missions, but not mosques. In the conquered cities they have destroyed the municipal registers and courts, an action aimed at destroying the historical memory of the local population," said Mgr. Aguirre Munos.

The Presbyterian Church

http://www.pcusa.org/news/2013/12/2/...al-african-re/

Religious conflict rips through Central African Republic

Seleka was formed in December 2012, when Islamists and other rebel groups from Chad and Sudan joined forces. The militants had crossed into the country, attacking government installations and destroying churches and church missions, businesses and homes, Christian agencies report.

Church leaders say the violence is surging, while U.N. officials say the situation is slowly degenerating into a Christian-Muslim conflict as the rebels escalate attacks and Christian militia retaliate. Some have voiced fears of a potential genocide.

“We did not have tensions until the arrival of Seleka,” said the Rev. Andre Golike, president of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Central African Republic

I see no indication at this time any of this is associated with AQ affiliates but it appears to be more of an attempt to mobilize segments of the population by using religion. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[carl]

I see no indication at this time any of this is associated with AQ affiliates but it appears to be more of an attempt to mobilize segments of the population by using religion. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Does it matter in the long run if Seleka is associated with AQ right now, or if they ever associate with AQ itself? AQ, or a variation thereof, is going to go to them. We are getting to the point of Christians vs. Muslims in Nigeria, in Kenya, in Sudan (for decades) and now in the CAR. This will be more than interesting, this may turn out lethal for millions of people. I think it is far more than trying to take advantage of a local situation.

In fact, Muslim persecution of Christians it seems to me is growing everywhere in some Muslim countries, lethal persecution. This problem isn't going to go away and is an ongoing human tragedy that we not only say little about, we don't even seem to see it.

[Bill Moore]

Does it matter in the long run if Seleka is associated with AQ right now, or if they ever associate with AQ itself? AQ, or a variation thereof, is going to go to them. We are getting to the point of Christians vs. Muslims in Nigeria, in Kenya, in Sudan (for decades) and now in the CAR. This will be more than interesting, this may turn out lethal for millions of people. I think it is far more than trying to take advantage of a local situation.

In fact, Muslim persecution of Christians it seems to me is growing everywhere in some Muslim countries, lethal persecution. This problem isn't going to go away and is an ongoing human tragedy that we not only say little about, we don't even seem to see it.

Carl I agree with you, I put the caveats in my response to damper the automatic responses from self-proclaimed "more rational" who dismiss the character the conflict we're in because it doesn't conform to their view of the world.

[davidbfpo]

There is a new backgrounder on the situation, the author is familiar with Africa and has worked on AU peacekeeping before. Within the conclusion is this salutary reminder:

More than a dozen peace support operations have been deployed since 1996 and none has made any substantive progress in addressing the root causes of the CAR’s chronic lack of governance and security.

Link:http://oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/pu...al_african_rep

There is a SWJBlog item on the USA saving CAR from being another Rwanda, with to date three comments: http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the...another-rwanda