Russian Bronze Statue in Estonia

[kaur]

SWJED, let's say that this was another misunderstanding. I hope that this thread will calm down and history will evaluate this tense week as Russia's failed attempt to harrass it's small neighbour. But I consider this to be my duty to inform the Council again about alarming eventsin in this corner of the world if threat level rises again. I can forecast this already now. In the end of this year there will come Duma elections in Russia and in the beginning of next year presidental elections. Russian Duma members and Ivanov will not forget Bronze Statue.

[marct]

Hi Kaur,

I suspect that you are right that the level of tension will be kept fairly high. Personally, I think that what we are seeing now in Estonia, thanks to what you and Stan are reporting, is one scenario for the beginning of a war - which may or may not be "small".

In a lot of ways, what is going on over there is on the boundary - it's not a "war" and it's not "peace". Getting the news of what is going on out is crucial but, at the same time, figuring out the strategies involved is also crucial. I think we can all learn a lot about destabilization / stabilization strategies from Estonia.

A good case in point is the script kiddies cyber attack - am I right in assuming it was a Denial Of Service (DOS) attack? If so, the scripts for that type of attack are readily available to any 10 year old - you don't even have to go to the dark net to get them . The question now is how are the service providers (and government) responding? What sort of IO campaign is Estonia going to put together for the international community? What sort of help are they asking for from NATO and the EU?

Marc

[marct]

From Today's RCP

To Die For Tallinn
By Patrick Buchanan

All week, young toughs in Moscow have besieged the Estonian embassy to harass Ambassador Marina Kaljurand. Her bodyguards had to use a mace-like spray to drive back the thugs, who call Estonia a "fascist country." Estonian diplomats and their families are being pulled out of Moscow and sent home.

Relations between the countries are about to rupture, if the Kremlin does not reign in the bully-boys.

Behind this nasty quarrel is the decision by Estonia to move the giant statue of a Red Army soldier, and the remains of Soviet soldiers, from the center of its capital, Tallinn, to a military cemetery. In Tallinn, patriots and nationalists have clashed with citizens of Russian ancestry over the perceived insult to Mother Russia and the "liberators" of Estonia from the Nazis.

........

Why should this issue be of interest to America?

If President Putin decide the Estonians need a lesson, and sends troops to teach it, the United States, under NATO, would have to treat Russian intervention in Estonia as an attack upon the United States, and declare war on behalf of Estonia.

More...

Kaur, this is the type of thing I was talking about; at least in part. Getting Estonia's "message" out is crucial as is the use of information shaping operations to avoid destabilizations.

Marc

[Stan]

It’s probably obvious that Kaur and I are somewhat fixated on the current situation in Estonia regarding the Bronze Soldier, and more importantly the recent riots. These are not new events by any stretch of the imagination, but they are the largest we’ve experienced and lets face it, we do live and work here !

As I reflect on the last 12 years in this region, and my studies about Estonia’s relations with Russia, I have made the following conclusions.

Estonia is the only state that ever stood militarily against Russia and defeated their enemies without any assistance from the West. They will not cave in this time either !

IMO, the riots in Tallinn follow a distinct pattern. I offer The Kremlin orchestrates these with the full knowledge of the President, if not his very own direct orders. Putin is getting worse with each passing day and his agenda seems to be the destabilization of ‘his’ former Republics (I dare say, with Hitler-like methods, all the while Europe plays its same old appeasement game so well demonstrated long ago by fine Europeans prior to WWII).

The Kremlin IMHO plans to emerge as the one who saved the honor of those ethnic-Russian minorities left behind (and obviously, to act when the time is right). The imposition of import bans on the former republics, all the while scheming up implausible excuses for not delivering oil and gas. These are excuses designed for domestic consumption. In a sense, The Kremlin has very good reasons to believe such malarkey…much like before, the West abandoned the Baltic States in their hour of need.

I doubt the USA and NATO will stand for this dog-n-pony show much longer, but will the EU step in? Or, will Estonia be sacrificed in exchange for oil and promised gas pipelines (that, BTW have to run through Estonian waters)?

Is Putin grooming a new and very young Russian, as was recently demonstrated in front of the Estonian Embassy by this nationalistic young ‘guard’ in Moscow. I believe they were nothing more than paid hooligans, exactly like the ethnic-Russians in Estonia during the riots and looting.

Estonians tell me the demonstrators in The Ukraine are on the Russian payroll. No violence there yet, perhaps the risk is not high enough like in Estonia.

Putin has precious little time before Duma and Presidential elections. Are we in for a major showdown and the establishment of the New Russian Empire ?

[Stan]

Marc, I am very glad to see the Canadians are joining our party

Hon. Bryon Wilfert (Richmond Hill, Lib.):
Mr. Speaker, we know a lot more, given the Ottawa convention as a good example.

Tensions between these countries are escalating. The Estonian ambassador was roughed up in Moscow this week. This is a serious issue. If the government is committed to having Canada play a role in international affairs, and so far the track record has not been promising, we need to take action immediately.

Will the Minister of Foreign Affairs take control in his department, take action, and support Estonia against Russian intimidation as other NATO countries have already done?

Hon. Peter MacKay (Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, CPC):
By all means, Mr. Speaker, we stand very strongly with the people of Estonia in any kind of intimidation from Russia or any other country.

I would have the member opposite know that I spoke directly to the Estonian foreign minister when we attended NATO meetings. We are very aware of the world as it unfolds in terms of these tensions. We work directly with our allies. We work directly to promote democracy, democratic practices and the promotion of human rights.

Jeez, I love the way they talk in Canada

[SWJED]

SWJED, let's say that this was another misunderstanding. I hope that this thread will calm down and history will evaluate this tense week as Russia's failed attempt to harrass it's small neighbour. But I consider this to be my duty to inform the Council again about alarming eventsin in this corner of the world if threat level rises again. I can forecast this already now. In the end of this year there will come Duma elections in Russia and in the beginning of next year presidental elections. Russian Duma members and Ivanov will not forget Bronze Statue.

We love this thread - don't make an issue where there isn't one... You have free reign on this thread. Drop it - both of you.

[Steve Blair]

Agreed. This is a good discussion...just keep it friendly and open and we'll be good.

[Stan]

I willing concur, and will not allow Kaur to drink more than two pints at any given time in a two-hour period on any Thursday...ever

[Stan]

Following the singular death of a Russian citizen (20 year old Dmitri Ganin) in Tallinn during the riots and upheaval, Russian Officials have called for an urgent investigation .

Meanwhile Dmitri's mother, having just buried her son told Nikolai Bondarenko, Russian Counselor in the Estonia City of Narva "don't use my son's name for your own interests".

More here if you read Estonian !

And, for those who don't speak Estonian yet, here's a translation:

Yesterday (03 May), 20 year-old Russian citizen Dmitri Ganin was buried at the Mustvee cemetery. The Russian Counsel, members of the Öise Color Guard and Russian TV were also in attendance.

The young man died on the operating table early morning on 27th of April at the Mustamäe hospital, after being stabbed on the evening of the 26th during riots and looting in Tallinn.

According to reports from the Estonian Prosecutor’s office, items stolen from stores during the riots and looting were found in Dmitri’s possession. His involvement in the looting is clearly recorded from store video cameras. Other items found in his possession link Dmitri to the destruction and looting of a kiosk around the corner from Freedom Square.

Nevertheless, there were hundreds of locals in attendance at the cemetery. Dmitri’s friends, school mates and teachers, Russian Counsel Nikolai Bondarenko, members of the Öise Color Guard and 10’s of Russian TV journalist.

Dmitri’s mother called the politicians to the side.

Marianne Tarelkina, former director of the Mustvee gymnasium said the funeral was heart-felt and peaceful. Marianne was of Dmitri’s teachers when she taught Estonian language at the Russian gymnasium. Among the grieving congregation were both young and old Estonians and Russians. In Marianne’s opinion, the Russian journalists were unable to get interviews from Dmitri’s friends or acquaintances. Dmitri’s schoolmates sent the journalist away without responding. The young were also reluctant to speak with Estonian journalists. “Perfect strangers were telling me that all those reporters and TV cameras on added confusion to the funeral.”

Estonian TV3’s "News at Seven" however caught an interview with a Russian journalist and one of Dmitri’s former work colleagues. “That man there lied” telling the Russian journalist that Estonian police began the bottle and stone throwing by throwing the ‘first punches’.

Mustvee’s town Mayor spoke about the town’s people and their demeanor in front of the media. There’s both disappointment in and fear of peace officers following previous reports of children and women being subjected to unprovoked beatings.

However, Dmitri’s mother applauded Marianne Tarelkina’s demeanor.

The Russian Counselor gave his speech and fortunately did not stray into politics. With that, Dmitri’s mother thanked the town’s people and those who supported her. She continued that her son was a local, he had Estonian and Russian friends, and she requested not to use my her son's name for their own interests.

One of Dmitri’s 8th grade class teachers wrote “I was standing just behind the Russian Counselor at the time. I saw how he twisted his neck and shook his head around. Thereafter he departed the town of Mustvee”.

Just like Jeltsin’s funeral

Another teacher addressed the congregation regarding conversations she had with Dmitri’s classmates. “I spoke to Dmitri’s classmates and we concluded, that if Dmitri had known how much ‘crap’ his red passport and Russian citizenship would later cause him, he would never have wanted a passport at 16 years of age (much like most of his classmates then).” The director opined, “Dmitri would have certainly waited for his Estonian citizenship.”

Jaan Rajuküla, Mustvee’s Russian gymnasium Director spoke about Dmitri’s local burial being customary of the Orthodox religion. “Beginning Dmitri’s final trip starting at the holy church and ending with a send of by Dmitri’s classmates to his final resting place. There, a clergyman speaks and the process ends placing the casket is brought into the cemetery where once more a clergyman speaks. The congregation could be several kilometers long, but until such time as all are present, the casket will not enter the cemetery grounds. That is correct and customary.”

"Much like Jeltsin’s funeral, few were missing before the casket entered the cemetery. The Öise Color Guards, Russian State representatives, and an awful lot of journalists were present. Jeltsin’s burial and ceremony were beautiful and absent of political speeches” Rahuküla commented.

He also emphasized that there was no division of people here. “Who’s an Estonian or Russian; both got along at Dmitri’s send off. Dmitri grew up here just like everyone else did”, he added.

[marct]

More here if you read Estonian !

And that, my friend, is part of the problem - not many people do read Estonian . That type of quote needs to be spread in English just because that's what most people can read.

Marc

[marct]

Hi Stan,

Thanks for the detailed post, Kaur !

Ditto - thanks, Kaur. It's really good to have specifics. If more is discovered about the attacks, can you post it here?

Hi Marc ! I translated the questionable link from last night and pasted it on the post. Sorry 'bout that ! You know, there are approx. 15,000 Estonians in Canada. Would it be fair to say you don't know any of them ?

Yeah, I do know a few, but they live quite a ways away from here ad I don't talk with them that often . Besides that, the effect is much greater if there is an English version posted here than if I just get a friend to translate it for me (also, the cost in beer!!!!!).

The Ministry gurus and some local providers commented that DDoS attacks are very easy to employ, but not that easy to nail down. The perpetrators often find links to regenerate disruptions and these are taken out or blocked one at a time. Most of our Ministry servers have merely created blanket blocking of outside connections until such time as they can get a handle on the disruptions. Last night, I couldn't get the SWJ site back, but most of the Estonian sites came up quickly.

Yeah, these attacks are the RPGs of the cyber-world - simple, easy, and readily available on the market.

We would all like to think that recent US and NATO grievances were key to halting disturbances in front of Estonia's Embassy in Moscow and I think Kaur hit it on the head, we can't simply slap them without a means of saving face. Sounds very African or tribal, but that always seems to be the case. Ambassador Kaljulaid's departure allowed them that face saving and gave them a way out. Well, that's what they say

Doesn't it just! Still and all, it's better to offer them a face saving opportunity than to do a full court press.

With the exception of the Prime Minister calling on the EU to speak, I don't know that Estonia openly asked for much assistance. The calls from NATO and the USA to Estonia's President and Prime Minister expressing support were key. The other former east bloc countries certainly played a role, but they don't have the 'bang' like NATO, the US Senate and Canada's Parliament.

Hmmm. I would strongly urge the Estonian Government to request assistance from one of the cyber terrorism teams; maybe the FBIs one, but the EU has a fairly good one to I believe. Just blocking all external server access is the equivalent of retreating back into castles - it cuts your lines of communication to the general populace.

On the whole, I would guess that Estonia (and Latvia and Lithuania) has a rather large reserve of good will in North America and the EU. If nothing else, there are fairly sizable diasporic populations outside the country that could easily be mobilized to support the "homeland". The trick is to mobilize them in a manner that gives them both press access and political clout without having to call in major political markers.

Marc

ps. I'm off for the rest of the day singing - rehearsals then an audition, so I won't check in again until 7 or so tonight

[Stan]

Hi Marc !
Hope your singing went well !

Hmmm. I would strongly urge the Estonian Government to request assistance from one of the cyber terrorism teams; maybe the FBI’s one, but the EU has a fairly good one to I believe. Just blocking all external server access is the equivalent of retreating back into castles - it cuts your lines of communication to the general populace.

I work with the Legal Attaché at the US Embassy quite a bit and will ring him up. Thanks, sounds like a reasonable idea. Now the hard sell…Estonia doesn’t do a lot of direct requesting. The last 4 or 5 years of FBI training here has concentrated on WMD. Anymore, it seems that our problems have to match those currently on the ‘top 10 lists’ if we want quick attention. On the other hand, civil wars usually draw attention

On the whole, I would guess that Estonia (and Latvia and Lithuania) has a rather large reserve of good will in North America and the EU. If nothing else, there are fairly sizable diasporic populations outside the country that could easily be mobilized to support the "homeland". The trick is to mobilize them in a manner that gives them both press access and political clout without having to call in major political markers.

In my ‘Europe’ post entitled “Three years on: the Baltic States and NATO” the article covered agreements between NATO and the Baltic States. Although they were celebrating the 3-year mark, we’ve seen remarkable cooperation in the form of NATO ‘Air Policing Missions’ by European countries controlling Baltic air space, cooperation with military fleets (particularly in the field of mine clearing), and international training of special operations units to fight terrorism. Still noteworthy, all three Baltic States continue to participate/support coalition forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

There are indeed large pockets of migrated Estonians in Australia, Canada and the USA. Estonians in the States were quick to support their fellow countrymen and locally posted potential US Government Officials and how to contact them. Congressman John Shimkus (R, Illinois-19) was the first to publicly speak in support of Estonia.

Estonia’s President put a good spin on this situation recently:

How to manage with this complicated past? The recipe could be simple: everyone has the right to celebrate their victories and commemorate their losses. Oswald Spengler said there is poetry to history. Currently we see how history, or rather the understanding of the past, is dividing the people living in Estonia, just like trenches and anti-tank defenses.

The Estonian nation, which lost thousands of sons and daughters in the wars and repressions of the 20th century, understands what the victory in the Great Fatherland War means to the Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian people. However, if instead of commemorating the fallen on the 9th of May, people instead celebrate Estonia's occupation, and in doing so deny the suffering of the Estonian nation, then this we cannot tolerate.

He has good reasons for saying that. It appears Russia's upper house voted unanimously this past Friday to retain a Red Army banner for ceremonies like Victory parades. This is exactly what caused our problems nearly a year ago today. Wandering - aimlessly I might add – around the capital with Russian Army uniforms on while waving the ‘Hammer and Sickle’.

The bill is yet to be signed into law by Putin, who brought back the Soviet-era red star as the Russian military's emblem in 2002, soothing those nostalgic about their Communist past and alarming others fearing the return of reprisals. The parliament had earlier reinstated the Soviet anthem with new lyrics on Putin's initiative.

Regards, Stan

[Stan]

Estonian Border Guard have turned many of these upstanding individuals away in the last two weeks, so seems only fitting to come in from the South. Too bad, looks like they'll be late for May 9th in Estonia

May 06, 2007
From wire reports

Latvian border guards detained two Russian nationals early today for crossing the Latvian-Russian border illegally, BNS reported on May 4.

Latvian State Border Guard chief Gunars Dabolins told BNS that the detained Russians, aged 37 and 22, are residents of Moscow and both have higher education. In Dabolins' words, they did not hide their membership in Russia's National Bolshevik organization.

[Stan]

Well, so much for allowing a 'face saving' way out

Bush backs Estonia in Russian dispute

Estonia will not apologise to Moscow for the removal of a Soviet war memorial, the Baltic state's president said on Friday as the US supported his stand.

President George W Bush invited Toomas Hendrik Ilves to the White House in a show of solidarity in which Nato and the European Union have urged Russia to stop intimidating its tiny neighbour.

[Stan]

As life returns to normal in the Estonian capital more than a week after riots hit the city center, the largest immediate concern among residents is whether fresh unrest will come on the 9th of May, the day Russians traditionally celebrate the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II.

The Russian Foreign Ministry already summoned ambassadors from Germany, Portugal and the EU to criticize the EU for failure to react to removal of the Soviet Army monument in Estonia. A tad strange for me (as an American) to even comprehend - I had no idea 'monument relocation' was governed by the EU

The local and national police appear confident, now backed by security companys, military forces and locals who previously attended a "neighborhood watch" course.

In an address to the public on May 6, Estonian police chief Raivo Aeg said that the police would continue to operate at a higher degree of readiness in the coming days.

"I wish to assure you that the police are fully ready to maintain public order in the new week," Aeg said. "All Estonian law enforcement bodies will jointly work to anticipate provocations and ensure a peaceful atmosphere. Instructions have been given to the police not to let themselves be provoked but to fix all violations."

The Viru detached infantry battalion based in the northeast Estonian regional capital Johvi, a city which also saw rioting on April 27, has stepped up its readiness in the run-up to the period around May 9 when further unrest was possible, the Eesti Paevaleht daily reported.

As of 1400 today, no more alcohol will be sold in shops through the evening of the 9th. Most of the previous rioters and looters were reportedly drunk during the previous disturbances.

So, will they go at it again sober

[Stan]

You see, the Soviets set Estonian clocks to Moscow time when they reconquered this small land in 1944.

That is, in Helsinki it was 11:43 pm when the Germans surrendered to the Soviets, but in Tallinn it was officially 12:43 am.

However, since most would agree that the sun reaches Tallinn and Helsinki before it reaches Moscow, you can surmise that the Estonians prefer to celebrate this event now at the proper time on May 8, rather than May 9. You could call it revisionism.

Or you could just say that the timing of the commemoration is reality-based, as opposed to ideology-based.

Either way, Estonia now celebrates the "end of the war" -- which dragged on into the 1950s in Estonia -- on May 8, not May 9.

Since the end of the Second World War, the USSR, and its successor countries, especially Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, have celebrated Victory Day on May 9. Although the Germans surrendered to the Soviets on May 8 in Berlin, it was already early in the morning (12:43 am) in Moscow. And so, due to this time difference, those who celebrate the Soviet victory celebrate on May 9, not May 8.

[Stan]

By JARI TANNER
The Associated Press
Tuesday, May 8, 2007; 5:47 AM

Probably the right thing to have done and even a nice gesture, but the Russian's don't seem all that impressed. Perhaps they still feel that Victory Day is on the 9th

TALLINN, Estonia -- Estonian government ministers laid flowers at a disputed Soviet statue on Tuesday to commemorate the Allied victory in World War II, the first time the Baltic state has made such a gesture since gaining independence 16 years ago.

The Swedish ambassador to Estonia Dag Hartelius laid a wreath on behalf of the Western diplomatic corps. Russian Ambassador Nikolai Uspensky refused to take part in the ceremony.

Just yesterday Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed Russian regrets NATO, EU connivance at attempts to rewrite history

Russia rejects some countries' attempts to rewrite history, Russia's foreign minister said Monday.

Addressing a wreath-laying ceremony for diplomats who perished in WWII, Sergei Lavrov said that the memory of the Victory was sacred, and that all officials at the Russian Foreign Ministry were responsible for thwarting attempts to scoff at history.

"Unfortunately, some organizations, such as NATO and the EU are conniving at such attempts [to rewrite history]," Lavrov said.

Russia's ambassador to the OSCE said grave human rights violations in Estonia resulted from the EU and NATO's indifference and tacit consent.

[Stan]

We've often wondered, was there any truth to this myth. Looks like perhaps there was

In 1994, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his Estonian counterpart, the polymath Lennart Meri, chummily drank together in a Kremlin chamber as their foreign ministers labored nearby to complete a historic treaty to withdraw all Russian troops from the tiny Baltic state.

When it was time to celebrate the finished draft, Yeltsin mocked his own foreign minister, Andrei Kozyrev, for his weak drinking skills -- "Bring the boy some ice cream," he roared to an attendant -- but approved the agreement. That may have been the high-water mark of Russia's willingness to face its imperialist history and allow its neighbors to live in peace.

Yeltsin, for all his drinking and Siberian gruffness, had at least glimmers of understanding that Russia could become a greater country by withdrawing unwanted troops than by imposing them. Putin, clean-cut and fit, seems the more modern man. But his troops remain in parts of neighboring Georgia and Moldova, and no decisive Kremlin summits to solve those problems, with vodka or ice cream, seem likely anytime soon.

Much more at the link !

[Stan]

A reader from Canada sent me this regarding Putin and a tad bit of history.

Pretty strange stuff, but perhaps not too far off the mark if you have plans for future employment in the Kremlin

Hi Marc !
I'm working on your answer, but the Delta Sierra is in jail and I have serious doubts, he'll entertain my request for an interview

Regards, Stan

[marct]

Hi Stan,

A reader from Canada sent me this regarding Putin and a tad bit of history.

Pretty strange stuff, but perhaps not too far off the mark if you have plans for future employment in the Kremlin

I'm getting flashbacks to German stuff from circa 1937 or so... Thanks for posting the link Stan!

Hi Marc !
I'm working on your answer, but the Delta Sierra is in jail and I have serious doubts, he'll entertain my request for an interview

Probably not, but I'm sure stuff will come out about him .

Marc