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  1. #1
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    As an animal I believe we prefer routine and predictability to change. Change is scary and makes us apprehensive.
    In my experience 'change' is only a challenge when it is forced on us. On the other hand if we initiate the change it has the effect of making us feel we are in control and have the initiative. (In a military sense)

    Predictability is a large part of why we build social systems like the economy or the government.
    Predictability, is what we look for in our enemy in a counter insurgency environment and is what the look for in us. Once any predictability is detected it can be exploited to maximum effect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    In my experience 'change' is only a challenge when it is forced on us. On the other hand if we initiate the change it has the effect of making us feel we are in control and have the initiative. (In a military sense)
    True in a small organization, but less so in a large one. Not because of any difference in human nature, just because of the numbers involved. Only so many people can initiate change, all the rest have to have it forced upon them.



    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Predictability, is what we look for in our enemy in a counter insurgency environment and is what the look for in us. Once any predictability is detected it can be exploited to maximum effect.
    Again, true on the battlefield but not so true in day-to-day life. You like to know that when you go out to your car and turn the key it is going to start; when you turn on the faucet water comes out; that when you turn on a light it comes on. We like predictability, but you are correct that it can be a lethal in the wrong places.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
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    Posted by TheCurmudgeon

    Predictability is a large part of why we build social systems like the economy or the government. So we are inclined to prefer what we know instead of embracing what we don't know.
    I think everyone is making good points, and ultimately it comes down to finding the right balance. The point about predictability is something Kilcullen addresses at length in his new book where he expands upon a concept called "competitive control." In short, people do desire predictability and rules, which is a key part of the Islamist Strategy articulated in "The Management of Savagery," which may be why AQ extremists and communists were able to establish control relatively quickly compared to Western forces, because they imposed rules that everyone understood, where in some cases we imposed chaos, but that is a separate topic.

    To me, I need to do some further research to see if I'm right, creativity means creating some new, so much of what is discussed about military units adapting is more along the lines of being innovative.

    Creative examples, include the development of the nuclear bomb, the Air Force as a separate service, unmanned aircraft, etc. Allegedly Henry Ford said if he asked people what they wanted they would have said a faster horse, on one would have a said car because it was outside their ability to perceive such a thing. Creative ideas when implemented disrupt the existing norm. Where innovation generally works within the established system using existing technologies (the combinations of processes and technologies may be new, but that fall short of being creative).

    Getting to Bob's point, about civilians in uniform being more creative than regulars this may be true. The OSS did things the regular military couldn't conceive of. In the book, "An Army at Dawn," the first in the trilogy on the war in Europe the author wrote prior to going into North Africa several Army Officers were resistant to the idea of adapting armor, they felt a good horse Calvary unit could defeat Rommel's armor, so it seems apparent we haven't found the balance between being creative and predictability in the military despite claims to the contrary.

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    I agree that there is a valid distinction between creativity and adaptation or innovation. Creativity is rare - it requires thinking in ways that no one before has. Adaptation is simply an improvement on an existing system.

    This is particularity important in COIN. It seems like we are stuck trying to improve upon a paradigm that is wrong from the onset ("Hearts and Minds"). The alternative is no better ("Total control of the population"). So we flounder looking for another answer.

    How do you really look "outside the box"? How do you get others to see the world as you do?
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
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    Default Stan, fortunately, my coffee mug was secure ...

    when I read this:

    How do you get others to see the world as you do?
    looked at the Curmudgeon and his cat; and tried to get inside his Worldview.

    Regards

    Mike

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    Mike,

    The world would be far better off if it simply accepted me as its mostly benevolant overlord.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
    ---

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    Default Stan,

    Do you ever step on that brown cat ?

    Though, I have to admit, the cat is totally in step (in a mirror image way); and should be safe. What's his name - Vortegern ?

    Regards

    Mike

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