Metrics are just numbers. It is a question of what you believe the number represent. If you believe that the complexities of human motivations and feelings can be easily and simply reduced to a metric then you will find your answer in metrics, even if you have to create the data points and the conclusions to draw from them. If you are willing to assume that humans are more complicated than that, then you can still find indicators, but they will not yield absolute proof of success or failure, only the potential for movement in a specific direction.
Even then, you must have a complete understanding of what it is you are trying to achieve. I don't think most military types have any idea the political and cultural impetus behind our ultimate objectives. We happily delude ourselves into believing we understand how other people think. I wish I had a better answer. All I can do is advise against the blind belief that everything can be reduced to simple metrics.
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