26 January Washington Post commentary - Looking at the Surge From the Other Side by Gary Anderson.

Policy Memo From the Planning Directorate, Mahdi Army:

We have completed a review of the new American surge strategy announced by their president. In analyzing possible courses of action, we must make two key assumptions.

First, it represents their administration's last chance to change course given the reported mood of the American public and their legislature. For us, this presents both opportunity and danger. We have to assume that we are the primary Shiite target of this plan. How we respond will largely determine how we position ourselves for operations after the Americans are gone.

Second, our Sunni adversaries will not be able to react in a coordinated manner; they are expected to remain divided in their actions and motivations...
Col. Gary Anderson (USMC Ret.) is a consultant with Hicks and Associates (who I work for in my day job) and conducts red teaming (Defense Adaptive Red Team - DART) for the Department of Defense.