Looking at the Surge From the Other Side

[Rob Thornton]

Slapout, that is an awufully large number - I'd like to hear them pin it down. I hear rumors about Iranian agents and assassination teams, but even the IA numbers are no where near that big. How would they support so many - not on the economy, how would they get their instructions to so many without attacting attention? Where do they live? I think its closer to the truth to say that Iran has a significant capabilitiy here in manners that we are not particularly good at countering. They are here to either help make Iraq into a client state relationship which gives them room and furthers their goals, or they are here to set Iraq so far back that they will be a non-factor as Iran tries to reach its goals. They'd like the hydrocarbon resources, but if they can't have it they don't want a neighbor who can challenge them.

I don't think they need real large numbers to do that, maybe a few small hitman cells with good intel. They would not be here to challenge the CF directly (it'd draw too much attention), instead they'd find the out of work professionals who basically stay at home, or work odd jobs, and assassinate them. Its easier because the garden variety AIF keep the CF more or less confined to the MSRs. Lots of people turn up dead here that CF don't track any deeper then the numbers - they don't have the resources and it becomes white noise in the background of IEDs and mortar attacks. If this is happening, then its a very efective tactic and we are missing the boat - its much harder to bring about the type of stability we envision if all the smart people are in the morgue.

How do you combat this? Develop capabilities in the ISF that focus on securing the people not the MSRs/ASRs, not the CF. Create a HUMINT capability that is covert and operates with the same advantages the bad guys use. Have them patrol more inside the neighborhoods with the uniformed assets. Execute an IO campaign that talks about the real threats and develops a larger common fear vs. mutual distrust. Whatever the number of Iranians operating inside of Iraq to further their own goals, they are/have been doing so with a great deal of freedom as long as they don't challenge the CF - its hard to tell one Iraq victim from another in terms of why they were killed - we just don't have the resources.

[slapout9]

Rob, I agree that would be a large force to hide. Pat Lang posted the transcript form the interview on his website and I went back and double checked the numbers. He flat out says hundreds of thousands Why he believes that or his exact source of his information is not revealed but if there are that many that surely changes the situation.

Your comment on counter measures is dead on! Get some undercover brothers and secret sisters out there with some cell phones and beat them at there own game.

As usual for your listening pleasure and cultural enhancement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-WwrwJY5zk