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  1. #1
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default Wargaming the South China Sea

    Inspired by the 'Wargaming Small Wars' discussion*, has anyone kriegspiel'd any of the potential scenarios brewing in the South China Sea?

    * http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2781

    The Chinese look like they're already playing that game (China Adopts Board-Game Strategy to Blunt U.S. Pivot to Asia / http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...e-in-asia.html ).

    One potential scenario that has already attracted it's fair share of negative comments (but has anyone tried playing it out?) is 'How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015'.

    Abstract:
    Years of strategic missteps in oceans policy, naval strategy and a force structure in decline set the stage for U.S. defeat at sea in 2015. After decades of double-digit budget increases, the People’s Liberation Army (Navy) was operating some of the most impressive systems in the world, including a medium-range ballistic missile that could hit a moving aircraft carrier and a super-quiet diesel electric submarine that was stealthier than U.S. nuclear submarines. Coupling this new asymmetric naval force to visionary maritime strategy and oceans policy, China ensured that all elements of national power promoted its goal of dominating the East China Sea. The United States, in contrast, had a declining naval force structured around 10 aircraft carriers spread thinly throughout the globe. With a maritime strategy focused on lower order partnerships,and a national oceans policy that devalued strategic interests in freedom of navigation, the stage was set for defeat at sea. This article recounts how China destroyed the USS George Washington in the East China Sea in 2015. The political fallout from the disaster ended 75 years of U.S. dominance in the Pacific Ocean and cemented China’s position as the Asian hegemon.
    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1648631
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    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Adam G:

    That was a good article. That 'what if' of Red China sinking a ship or ships, denying they did so and standing as the innocent is very imaginative. And it has already happened, to the South Koreans.

    I wish I could say the things in that article could never happen, but they can. Oh well, at least as our ships disappear beneath the waves the crews can console themselves with the knowledge that they drowned and burned as part of an equal opportunity, fully inclusive Navy.

    One thing I would like to see wargamed is what the effect of the overthrow of the system of free navigation established and maintained by the RN and USN for the last 200 years will be on the world economy. Going from an environment of certainty to a oceanic free for all won't be conducive to trade and therefore the world standard of living.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  3. #3
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Carl,
    We're simply seeing life imitating art, as Oceania, Eastasia and Eurasia coalesce.

    Meanwhile, dual posting this. If you're out there, Captain; acknowledge, over.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1K04B20140221

    (Reuters) - The Pentagon on Thursday played down remarks by a senior Navy intelligence officer who told a public forum that he believed China was training its forces to be capable of carrying out a "short, sharp" war with Japan in the East China Sea.

    The comments by Captain James Fanell, director of intelligence and information operations at the U.S. Pacific Fleet, were little noticed when he made them last week at a conference on maritime strategy called "West 2014" in San Diego. They can be seen here: link.reuters.com/qyq96v
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWhwm4SJxTw


    The Pentagon dismissed the statements made by a senior Navy intelligence officer in a forum regarding China’s alleged preparations for a “short, sharp war” with Japan. Director of Intelligence and Information Operations at the U.S. PACFLEET Captain James Fannell was speaking at a conference on maritime strategy titled “West 2014” when he made those comments based on reports they’ve been compiling about the situation in East Asia.

    Rear Admiral John Kirby, spokesperson for the Pentagon, reiterated the U.S. desire to cultivate stronger ties with China’s military while declining to comment on Fannell’s assessment of the situation in the East China Sea. Kirby added that it was Fannell’s “views to express.” When asked whether he agrees with the intelligence officer’s analysis, Kirby responded, “It’s for China to speak to China’s intentions and motivations and their relations with their neighbors. And nothing’s changed about our view here.” He noted that despite Fannell’s views, the Pentagon shares the belief that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has on the matter, “that we all continue to believe that the peaceful, prosperous rise of China is a good thing for the region, for the world.”
    http://japandailypress.com/pentagon-...sment-2144698/
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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Anyone familiar with these folks?

    Relive historical operations in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Kosovo. Wrestle the Falklands under your control. Go “Down Town” around Hanoi and spar with the deadly NV air defences. Hunt down rogue nukes in Pakistan. Face off against India or China – from either side. Square off against the Soviet Union in the cold war, and against Russia in the new world order. Lead nuclear-powered sharks of steel against the masters of antisubmarine ops. Trade volleys of fire in close-quarters gun duels, or obliterate the enemy with sophisticated, heavy-hitting hypersonic missiles from hundreds or thousands of miles away. Survive massive, vicious air battles. Escort vital convoys to their destination, or make a last stand against all odds. When things escalate out of control, step up to unconventional or even nuclear weapons. Play the most dangerous game of hide and seek – at sea, on land and in the air. Command is the next generation of air/naval wargaming.
    http://www.warfaresims.com/?page_id=1101
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    Council Member BayonetBrant's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    Anyone familiar with these folks?
    http://www.warfaresims.com/?page_id=1101

    here's 1200-odd posts on the game you're quoting promo material from
    http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=4065.0

    and here's an interview with them
    http://grogheads.com/?p=3965

    basically, they were a bunch of guys doing dev work for the old Harpoon series of games, and had a variety of challenges with the way some fo the code was being manipulated by the community (and in some cases, being outright ripped off and passed off as someone else's work) so they formed their own company and released a new game that does all the things they said they wished Harpoon would've done for them.

    There have been complaints / issues with some features of CMANO, but by and large it's been pretty well-received and won a lot of year-end awards from the wargaming community.
    Brant
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  6. #6
    Council Member BayonetBrant's Avatar
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    Don't forget there are plenty of options to explore that don't require a power cord

    http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/7...green-crescent
    http://www.victorypointgames.com/fleets-2025.html
    http://compassgames.com/show/product...ing_the_chains

    and keep an eye out here for others as they're published
    http://modernwarmagazine.com/
    Brant
    Wargaming and Strategy Gaming at GrogHeads
    Military news and views at GrogNews

    “their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of ‘rights’… and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure.” Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers 1959

    Play more wargames!

  7. #7
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Another thread that's grist for these digital mills.

    http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...160#post158160
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  8. #8
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    With Only 4 Major Types of Warship Left, Can the U.S. Navy Still Dominate the Seas?
    http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...an-the-us.aspx
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  9. #9
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    On Saturday, December 6th 1941, the pride of the American fleet anchored at Pearl Harbor was already long obsolete, overtaken by the technology of air power and the ability to project air power with aircraft carrier.

    One has to wonder what aspect of our current "pride" is equally obsolete today. Perhaps the very carriers that replaced the battleships of the '30s.

    One thing we can count on, is that new technologies and asymmetric matchups will bring a new parity to naval power that has been absent sense WWII.

    The Trillion dollar question for the US is, what is the technology to invest in next? Equally, what are the technologies to place less reliance upon and to begin divesting of?
    Robert C. Jones
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    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

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  10. #10
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Looking back at the originally cited article, this part of the hypothetical scenario stands out:

    But U.S. credibility was low, and China was in ascent. China’s narrative shaped global media and public opinion: the incident was unfortunate and simply demonstrated to Japan and to the world the volatility and danger of U.S. nuclear-powered warships. The explosion was an accident and it would not have happened if the carrier had not been trying to intimidate China. In South America and the Middle East, and even in Europe, the feeling was strong that the ship was an instrument of imperialist power projection, operating in an area where it did not belong. Most Asians were inclined to think the United States should have been minding its own business.
    Granting that the scenario is set in 2015, but at this point the prediction above couldn't be more wrong: China's narrative is not shaping anyone's perception, and in East Asia at least China is generally seen as completely untrustworthy. From today's vantage point it seems hard to believe that the projected Chinese dominance of the perception war is even remotely likely.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  11. #11
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default HARPOON 2017: South China Sea

    New counter.
    China is developing the unique ultra-low altitude anti-ship unmanned vehicle. Details have emerged of new Chinese unmanned ground effect vehicle that would attack enemy surface ships.
    The new ultra-low altitude anti-ship unmanned system can fly as low as 50 cm above the sea, can reach a maximum altitude of 3km, along with an endurance of 1.5 hours – depending on the flight profile. The maximum take-off weight (MTOW) is 3000 kilograms and can carry a 1000 kg load.
    http://defence-blog.com/news/china-d...ed-system.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-20-2017 at 03:19 PM. Reason: Amended quote after author update
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  12. #12
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Predecessor thread.
    http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=20214

    Have fun, Midshipmen.

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