Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[carl]

This is just an idle thought but if the plane went down in tropical forest, they would have a very, very difficult time finding it, especially if they don't have a clue where to look. And apparently they don't. The forest just swallows things up. But then the Emergency Locator Transmitter should be putting out signal. Which it isn't. This has the makings of a Twilight Zone episode.

[Biggus]

My understanding is that ELTs are not as reliable as one would expect.

The Malaysian story doesn't seem particularly consistent right now. Perhaps having an unknown radar contact flying through your airspace and doing nothing about it is something of an embarrassment that the Malaysians don't really want to talk about.

[Dayuhan]

This is one of the first things I've seen that actually offers a credible reason for the vanishing airliner... no, it doesn't involve aliens or trans-dimensional portals, which makes it a little less exciting than some of what's been floating around.

"Aviation investigators and national security officials believe the plane flew for a total of five hours based on data automatically downloaded and sent to the ground from the Boeing Co 777's engines as part of a routine maintenance and monitoring programme"

"As part of its maintenance agreements, Malaysia Airlines transmits its engine data live to Rolls-Royce for analysis. The system compiles data from inside the 777's two Trent 800 engines and transmits snapshots of performance, as well as the altitude and speed of the jet."

"A total flight time of five hours after departing Kuala Lumpur means the Boeing 777 could have continued for an additional distance of about 2,200 nautical miles, reaching points as far as the Indian Ocean, the border of Pakistan or even the Arabian Sea, based on the jet's cruising speed."

http://my.news.yahoo.com/lost-mh370-...052653561.html

[Biggus]

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/ma...-on-four-hours

KUALA LUMPUR, March 13 — A Malaysia Airlines spokesman today contested reports that Rolls Royce received bursts of engine information from missing flight MH370, insisting that the data link was severed the same moment the plane dropped off civilian radar.

For nearly every new piece of information so far, there is a retraction or obfuscation within hours. Right now, the facts appear to be as follows:

MH370 departed from KL at 0041 local time. Last ACARS tranmission was said to be at 0107, last radio contact was at 0121. An unknown contact was tracked until 0240. Two people on board were travelling on false passports, which apparently is not unheard of. ACARS data suggesting that the aircraft flew for several more hours are currently unsubstantiated.

[omarali50]

Could it be that the Bhumiputra administration of Malaysia is in worse shape than anyone had thought? Maybe a combination of British colonial law and order (and sahib-like appearances) and Chinese money had kept the reality of incompetence and confusion well hidden?
Just a thought.

[carl]

Biggus & Dayuhan:

You guys are on top of this. Have there been any reports about what kind of cargo/freight the aircraft was carrying? Another idle thought on my part.

[davidbfpo]

At this point, it is safe to say that we know exactly one thing with any certainty as to the whereabouts of Flight 370. It is almost definitely, quite probably, without much doubt, located somewhere within this one little greenish circle..

From:http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te...grows_map.html

[davidbfpo]

Could it be that the Bhumiputra administration of Malaysia is in worse shape than anyone had thought? Maybe a combination of British colonial law and order (and sahib-like appearances) and Chinese money had kept the reality of incompetence and confusion well hidden?
Just a thought.

Omarali50,

A better, contemporary explanation why:

Why Malaysia Will Say Almost Nothing About the Missing Plane

See:http://www.businessweek.com/articles...missing-flight

[Dayuhan]

WSJ has now issued a correction to the previous link... same link as above, but at the bottom of the page:

U.S. investigators suspect Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 flew for hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, based on an analysis of signals sent through the plane's satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of onboard systems, according to people familiar with the matter. An earlier version of this article and an accompanying graphic incorrectly said investigators based their suspicions on signals from monitoring systems embedded in the plane's Rolls-Royce PLC engines and described that process.

There's also this:

In a CNN appearance on Thursday, the former National Transportation Safety Board vice-chairman Bob Frances called the WSJ story “remarkable”. In an interview with the Washington Post, he said:

“Andy Pasztor is a very reputable journalist who knows his stuff in aviation as much as anyone. For him to create this article out of whole cloth for me stretches credulity … So you don’t know where to go. I would go with what Andy said because I have great faith in him and he doesn’t have any political ax to grind, as do the Malaysians.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...0-media-claims

From the same link:

the signal came not from the engines but from a “satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of some onboard systems”. The paper is standing by the substance of its story, though, and Reuters and CNN are also quoting unnamed sources as saying that “pings” continued after 1.07am, with Reuters explaining:

The ‘pings’ equated to an indication that the aircraft’s maintenance troubleshooting systems were ready to communicate with satellites if needed, but no links were opened because Malaysia Airlines and others had not subscribed to the full troubleshooting service

and this, which is interestimng:

Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.

The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m.

This indicates it may well have been a deliberate act, ABC News aviation consultant John Nance said.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=22894802

That would seem to indicate either coercion or pilot complicity, but at this point there's nowhere near enough information out to support anything but speculation.

The combination of the satellite pings and the time gap between the system shutdowns suggest there's more going on than was originally told, and that the Malaysian government is either not so well informed or has been holding back information. It's interesting that this stuff is coming from the US side. It does certainly suggest that the potential search area is, as David points out, a whole lot larger than initially thought.

I have heard nothing at all about cargo.

There has been some speculation that nations in the area are hesitant to reveal military radar data as it might mean revealing information about their capacities (or lack thereof) that they would rather keep private.

I wonder if there's some reason why the transponders can be manually shut off, rather than operating automatically any time the plane is airborne. I suspect that this may change, as it seems an invitation to problems.