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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Default Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

    Flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur at 12:41 a.m. Saturday en route to Beijing. Somewhere between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew members lost contact with ground controllers.
    http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mystery-...#ixzz2vg6fEyRg

    Still no trace of the aircraft repoprted, search in its 3rd day.

    On Monday, authorities questioned travel agents at a beach resort in Thailand about two men who boarded the plane with stolen passports.

    The men had onward tickets to Europe. It's not known whether they had anything to do with the plane's disappearance. Criminals and illegal migrants regularly travel on fake or stolen documents.

    Police said the travel agency was contacted by an Iranian man known only as "Mr. Ali" to book the tickets for the two men. Thailand police said it's common to use an alias when doing business there.
    http://www.thespec.com/news-story/44...g-missing-jet/

    Not a basis to conclude that terrorism was involved, but not a good sign either. If nothing else, knowing that people can board a flight so easily using passports reported as stolen should draw attention to the very sporadic use of the stolen document database.

    Malaysian authorities have indicated mechanical or piloting problems could be reasons for the apparent crash, the U.S. sources said.

    A U.S. source said one reason Malaysian authorities are leaning away from the act of terror theory is because electronic evidence indicates the jetliner may have made a turn back towards Kuala Lumpur before it disappeared.
    http://www.voanews.com/content/vietn...r/1867761.html

    Obviously no conclusions can be reached; more will be known in time...
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 03-11-2014 at 04:08 AM.
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    An article at Forbes that doesn't add too much to the discussion, but includes the following in the comments section:
    Quote Originally Posted by Nautiflyer in the Forbes comments section


    A plausible explanation…

    Like many people, I’ve been following the events surrounding the loss of the Malaysian B777 with great interest.
    I rarely offer any theories, conjecture, or ideas relating to aircraft accidents, mainly because there are simply too many things to consider, and often, too many unknowns. Most often I find it in very poor taste to come up with some short sighted offing before we know anything about what really happened. I very much hate to jump to conclusions.

    The media the past few days has been inundated with “experts”, pundits, and just goofy conspiracy theorist coming up with all kinds of ideas all over the map. In the end, they all say they have absolutely no clue as to what could have gone wrong.
    As much as I hate to speculate… I feel as a professional pilot, and Captain on the B777, I can offer a very plausible explanation based on my experience in the B777 aircraft, and in the aviation industry, to help quell unsubstantiated rumors, and just outright falsehoods being disseminated in the media.

    Seems we need to have a boogeyman to fear… so the terrorism angle gets a lot of play. VERY often on our flights we get passengers with false or incorrect documents… and they are off-loaded before we leave the gate. Occasionally somebody gets by, and they are stopped at immigration at the landing airport, and are summarily sent back to where they came from. It happens.
    In the Southeast Asia area, there is an enormous amount of drug trafficking, (a good portion going to China from Thailand) and the current 2 suspects seem to me to fit the bill as nothing more than “mules” running drugs and taking advantage of the 72 hour free visa option when entering China with follow on tickets to other destinations. (In this case the passengers had tickets to Amsterdam and follow-on to Copenhagen and Frankfurt). By utilizing this visa option, they are able to slip into China and “get lost”… and never utilize their “follow-on flights… it’s just a matter of getting the pay… and making their way back to Thailand (or where ever). Make sense? It happens everyday…

    As for the aircraft. The B777 is a great airplane, but occasionally things go wrong! I would direct you to an event that occurred in July of 2011 in Cairo, Egypt. Again, a B777-200 while boarding the final passengers, an electrical short resulted in the heating of an oxygen hose and burst into an uncontrolled fire in the cockpit. The cockpit was destroyed in a matter of minutes, though thankfully the plane being on the ground… the passengers were evacuated… and only minimal injuries where incurred.

    The following link will direct you to an article on the event, with pictures and explanations…

    http://avherald.com/h?article=44078aa7/0000

    A sobering comment can be found at the bottom of the page as a “latest comment”.

    Much has been speculated as to why no radio call was made…. with the noisy environment inside the cockpit, it’s doubtful anyone would hear an initial “pop” as they did in the Egypt Air ground incident…. so it could be assumed that there was a great possibility an intense and uncontrolled fire could have started and consumed the cockpit in a matter of seconds.

    All the communication interfaces we have on the B777 are located within arms reach of us… and in an intense fire, would be completely disabled within a matter of minutes…if not seconds. (refer to the pictures in the article) Transponders (the box that sends ATC our position) would be rendered useless, thus… NO ATC could see the aircraft as it diverted or fell from altitude. ACARS (our “text message” system that we communicate to the ground with… and sends vital aircraft information to the company), would be useless and thus no messages about the aircraft system status’s would be available to transmit. And lastly, trying to make a radio call when all of a sudden the cockpit burst into flames???? Remember, it was 3 AM in the morning… probably quiet from a work standpoint… and most of the time we just fight to stay awake on these late night flights! Imagine how startled you’d be if something like this occurred? Another scenario would be that perhaps there was only one pilot in the cockpit at the time, and the other had gone to the restroom, etc.
    The First Officer on the Malaysian flight was a VERY inexperienced cadet pilot….. yes, I fly with them all the time to here at XXXX, and it’s a “less than desirable” situation. But it happens all the time, and in this case, the FO only had 2700 hours…. if he was in the cockpit and something catastrophic happened… who knows the outcome?? (Just a thought)

    IF… and IF… a scenario like this was to play out, it would offer a very plausible explanation as to what could have occurred, and also explain why no radio calls where made… or ACARS messages sent, or ATC radar contact, etc. It would also explain that if both pilots were subdued, or forced to evacuate the cockpit, the aircraft could have flown for any number of minutes or hours for that matter (based on the fuel available) in ANY DIFFERENT DIRECTION, until fuel starvation, or autopilot failure.

    ATC in this part of the world does NOT have the capability to monitor “raw (radar) targets” with any reliability…(nor does ATC in the US for that matter) and furthermore, an aircraft, basically invisible to radar heading out into the wild blue sea would be very difficult, if ever to be found. It all depends on when the autopilot would fail.

    I’m not saying this is what happened to the ill fated Malaysian aircraft, but it is a very plausible explanation, and I’m appalled that the so-called experts are scratching their collective heads and haven’t offered this as a possible explanation.
    There are other possibilities…. but because of a limited history of this type problem in the past with the 777 (and other Boeing aircraft)… there is always the possibility that it could occur again… and perhaps in this case… while inflight.

    The rush to jump on the terrorism band wagon I believe is ill-advised… and though it should be explored, is probably a wild goose chase based on the ever ongoing drug trade that utilizes these routes all to often…..

    There are very few things in the B777 that can get you in a big heap of trouble in a hurry… the explanation and example given above is just one of very few.

    I hope this adds to your insight of potential explanations…

    Now… back to watching the “experts” scratch their heads….

    Capt. Tom
    A bit of food for thought.

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    Capt. Tom knows what he is about.
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    Default NYTimes Q&A.

    Matthew L. Wald at the New York Times penned a Q&A related to the disappearance which went online today.

    -----------------------

    Q. and A. on the Disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370

    […]

    Q. Plane crashes most often happen on landing or takeoff, but this flight vanished almost an hour after takeoff when it was cruising. What could cause a plane to crash at that point in a flight?

    A. In three crashes at sea in the last few years, the aircraft’s speed-sensing systems have malfunctioned. In two of those cases, crews failed to diagnose and cope with the problem. In the third, there was probably nothing they could have done.

    […]
    If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. – Mark Twain (attributed)

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    This morning's news (morning in my time zone)...

    Report that the jet may have changed course and flew a considerable distance after the last contact, meaning search may be in the wrong place:

    http://www.dw.de/malaysia-jet-search...rse/a-17488778

    The two men traveling on stolen passports were both Iranian, but are not believed to have any terrorist links and appear to be illegal migrants:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26525281
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Default Mysterious?

    I find the reporting from Malaysian authorities slightly odd or is it just me?

    The civil authorities refer to the radar tracking to the east of Malaysia; which is where an international search commences.

    Then the military authorities refer to the possibility the flight reversed course and flew to the west - possibly crashing into the rather busy Malacca Straits.

    So why didn't the civil and military radar operators not talk to each other at the time? Starting with: 1) where is the flight, 2) have you spotted it?

    A new timeline, with maps and more:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rash-live.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-11-2014 at 11:55 PM.
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    http://my.news.yahoo.com/police-prob...013714248.html

    Police probe finds no red flags on MH370 pilots, says report

    Police investigations into the pilot and co-pilot of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have not turned up any red flags in their backgrounds, The Wall Street Journal reported today.

    A source close to the investigations told the business daily that information on the two men – 53-year-old Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27 – were shared with its counterparts in other countries.

    But so far, no suspicious activities or associations had turned up, reported The Wall Street Journal.
    A few media outlets are pointing out that the pilot's flight simulator was able to simulate landings in the Maldives, Diego Garcia, and southern India. Some are trying to spin that into a big deal. Others are honest enough to point out that the same software contains thousands of runways all over the world in practically every region.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    http://my.news.yahoo.com/police-prob...013714248.html



    A few media outlets are pointing out that the pilot's flight simulator was able to simulate landings in the Maldives, Diego Garcia, and southern India. Some are trying to spin that into a big deal. Others are honest enough to point out that the same software contains thousands of runways all over the world in practically every region.
    The last Microsoft Flight Simulator release (the development of which has since been taken up by Lockheed Martin) contained over 24,000 unique airfields, civillian and military, and there would be literally hundreds of thousands of additions to that created by enthusiasts and commercial companies.

    I'm reading the initial release of incorrect information regarding the termination of the ACARS transmissions as an intentional mislead.

    Also noteworthy is that apparently the Chinese have been late to the party in terms of checking their territory for errant Boeings. They're now conducting an inland search on the assumption that they didn't catch it slip through their primary radar systems.

    Out-of-fuel aircraft crashing produce surprisingly little fire, and depending on the angle of impact, SAR teams may be looking for an impact and debris site on land as small as 50x50m. If it's in the ocean, if it isn't found in the next two weeks, it probably won't be found for decades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post
    If it's in the ocean, if it isn't found in the next two weeks, it probably won't be found for decades.
    I've got to disagree with you. If they do, in fact, have a circle like Dayuhan posted in post #42 of this thread for every hour that the plane was in flight, they either already have a very good idea where the plane ended up or they just haven't talked to anybody who knows a bit about geometry yet. If they have that info, it's just a math problem, and not a particularly hard one.

    Which is why, as you alluded to in an earlier post, it is kind of suspicious that they only released the last arc, and not the previous ones.

    EDIT: As I think about this more, it's a fairly easy problem IF the plane was going in more or less of a straight line after last contact. If it was following a weird, broken route, or circling, it becomes a lot more difficult, but still not impossible.
    Last edited by former_0302; 03-18-2014 at 05:03 PM.

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    Now the Thai Air Force is stating that they picked up a twisting path of an unidentified craft, but didn't provide the information because they weren't specifically asked for it. Makes one wonder who else is holding information.

    Additionally, a low flying plane was spotted by multiple people over the Maldives at 0615 the morning of the disappearance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...H370-live.html
    Last edited by anotherguy; 03-18-2014 at 05:39 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur at 12:41 a.m. Saturday en route to Beijing. Somewhere between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew members lost contact with ground controllers.
    http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mystery-...#ixzz2vg6fEyRg

    Still no trace of the aircraft repoprted, search in its 3rd day.
    I don't know where, but today I read that they somehow catched a signal that, judging from the canal it was on, must be said black box.. or at least they're pretty sure about it
    Last edited by surika; 04-07-2014 at 09:01 AM.

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    The interpretation of data is not always a smooth path, nor scientific. A WSJ article 'Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Search Zone Poised for Another Shift: Uncertainties About Speed, Altitude Affect Calculations for Target Area':http://online.wsj.com/news/article_e...MDAwODEwNDgyWj
    davidbfpo

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    Sadly Occam's Razor points, like in the case of MH370 and others before, towards another deliberate crash. The BBC asks Who, What, Why: How are cockpit doors locked? The embedded video makes it quite easy to understand...

    After 9/11, changes were made to the security of cockpits in an effort to make hijackings more difficult. According to the US Federal Aviation Authority, doors should typically be tough enough to withstand a grenade blast. They are usually left locked throughout the flight.
    The high level of security against an outside threat makes it impossible to enter if somebody inside the cockpit desires so. The risk of a deliberate crash, among other factors is likely greatly reduced by strict enforcement of the rule of two. In this case it seems that the co-pilot was alone for a many minutes with the door locked during which time the autopilot was manipulated into crashing.

    Wrapping it up there have been a considerable numbers of cases in the last twenty years in which the pilots are at least suspected to have crashed their plane deliberately. Terrorism has led to a extremely costly and very intrusive response around the world and especially in the USA. It surprises* me that at least in Europe the institutional reaction to suspected 'massacres-by-pilots' which might have gone a long way towards reducing that low threat much further while spending not even a fraction of the anti-terrorism costs was not stronger and smarter.

    *There obviously some explanations coming into one's mind, but I wonder what others think.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-26-2015 at 06:54 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    I find that quote remarkable:

    According to cockpit voice recordings reported by the International Business Times, the co-pilot left to use the bathroom, and when he returned, he found the door shut. Inside, the pilot had switched the plane’s altitude reading from 38,000 feet to ground level, IBT reports. Recordings show someone pounded on the door to the cockpit as the plane plummeted. Investigators later concluded the plane had crashed because of “intentional actions by the pilot.”










    Why? Because it is from an article written one year ago, following the tragedy of MH370 and talking about the Mozambique Airlines E-190 crash of 2013.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    A cautionary comment from Mental Health Cop, a British police inspector who has specialised in mental health:https://mentalhealthcop.wordpress.co...ure-or-degree/

    Here is one passage:
    By now, it may be easy to forget that when papers went to press on Thursday night, we still knew comparatively little about the pilot of the doomed flight. We certainly did not know that he appears to have ripped up sick notes that were relevant to the day of the crash or what kind of condition they related to – we still don’t, as the German police have not confirmed it. Whilst we did have suggestion that he had experience of depression and ‘burnout’ – whatever that means – we don’t know the nature or degree of this, do we?
    davidbfpo

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