Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[Biggus]

It would certainly be a route from the south to a point along that northern arc. The apparent waypoint plots from earlier seemed to be a path that was at the edges of Malay and Thai military radar coverage.

*If* we're talking about a hijacking and a final known location along that northern 40 degree arc, and *if* the ACARS pings were half hourly, the final destination would be within 250nm of that arc. We'd also be talking about a group that knew exactly how to go about 'threading the needle', flying between radar coverage areas without being detected.

India and China are a bit of an issue. I don't know enough about China's real defence capability in the south west of their country, but I know India is actively intercepting unresponsive and unknown air contacts coming from Pakistan with at least reasonable competence and success as of Feb 24. Whether this vigilance is constant, I can't really say. You'd need some pretty good ELINT sources finding an optimum time to get through to anywhere from Laos to Iran without detection.

Anecdotally I am hearing that flights into China are now regularly carrying greater fuel loads due to local factors.

*If* we're not looking at a hijacking, or we're looking an an unsuccessful hijacking, I'd be picking the southern 40 degree arc as the place to search. This southern arc is going to be a bit of a nightmare to find wreckage in. Apparently, the JORN radar installation at Laverton in Western Australia would have coverage of a large part of that arc, but of course it isn't manned unless there is a heightened state of alert.


Edit: Something that bothers me with a lot of the reporting in regards to the transponder is the notion that the only explanation for turning a transponder off is nefarious. There are times when it's necessary, such as a malfunction or an electrical fire.