Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[TheCurmudgeon]

Thousands of other high-hour pilots have the same thing. Hell, I have the same thing. It's not something he's hidden, it was all over his Facebook stuff, and he posted regularly within the flight sim community.

There's nothing nefarious about it. The guy loved flying. It's a job where people often love what they do.

You are right, there is nothing nefarious about it ... in and of itself. When tied to other facts it could indicate involvement and the ability to do simulations of flight paths and of landing on airstrips that he and never been to.

So yes, I believe it is relevant and should not be dismissed out of hand.

[CBCalif]

Which Radar Facility under whose control tracked the 777 after it checked out of Kuala Lumpur's control and after it turned off its transponder, noted its directional change and flight back over Malay Peninsular? To know it was the 777 they would have had to be tracking it prior to it turning off its transponder. If an on radar unidentified flight was traveling at high speed over their country and (supposedly) being tracked by the Malaysian military why did they not report trying to communicate with it and why would they not scramble interceptors to at least look at it? Which radar facility operated by whom tracked the supposed altitude changes of the 777 -- presumably using 3D height finder capable radar? Those reported altitude climbs and descents in the T.V. reported times seem implausible for the 777 air frame. And why didn't that tracking facility report attempting to contact the aircraft when watching such radical flight changes and if no answer send out interceptors to find out what was going on? If it was the Malaysian military they appear to be a rather unusually slow or no responding group???

[slapout9]

Article suggesting pilot supported homosexuality (illegal in Malaysia) also pilots Wife and Children moved out of their home the day before the plane disappeared. May have hijacked plane as a form of protest!



http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...-mh370-3248001

[TheCurmudgeon]

Slap,

Interesting that there appears to be no airfields in Pakistan capable of allowing a 777 to land.

On the more absurd side, I am putting my money on the Russian's theory

A new report circulating in the Kremlin today prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GRU) states that Aerospace Defence Forces (VKO) experts remain “puzzled” as to why the United States Navy “captured and then diverted” a Malaysia Airlines civilian aircraft from its intended flight-path to their vast and highly-secretive Indian Ocean base located on the Diego Garcia atoll.

According to this report, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (also marketed as China Southern Airlines flight 748 through a codeshare) was a scheduled passenger flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China, when on 8 March this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft “disappeared” in flight with 227 passengers on board from 15 countries, most of whom were Chinese, and 12 crew members.

Interesting to note, this report says, was that Flight 370 was already under GRU “surveillance” after it received a “highly suspicious” cargo load that had been traced to the Indian Ocean nation Republic of Seychelles, and where it had previously been aboard the US-flagged container ship MV Maersk Alabama.

what first aroused GRU suspicions regarding the MV Maersk Alabama, this report continues, was that within 24-hours of off-loading this “highly suspicious” cargo load bound for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, the two highly-trained US Navy Seals assigned to protect it, Mark Daniel Kennedy, 43, and Jeffrey Keith Reynolds, 44, were found dead under “suspicious circumstances.”

And as long as I am throwing out wild theories, we are coming up on the second anniversary of bin Laden's death.

[slapout9]

Slap,

Interesting that there appears to be no airfields in Pakistan capable of allowing a 777 to land.

I don't believe any of that......(he/she/it flew 7 hours and landed some place stuff). The guy wanted to hijack the plane and something went wrong which cauesd the passengers to be killed (decompression or some other stuff way above my knowledge base) then it soaked into the pilots brain what he had done!!!!! and then drove the plane straight into the ocean.

[TheCurmudgeon]

I don't believe any of that......(he/she/it flew 7 hours and landed some place stuff). The guy wanted to hijack the plane and something went wrong which cauesd the passengers to be killed (decompression or some other stuff way above my knowledge base) then it soaked into the pilots brain what he had done!!!!! and then drove the plane straight into the ocean.

I would buy that if they had found wreckage. Even though I though of the old movie I had seen as a kid early on I did not believe that it was possible to steal an airline in flight. The Egyptian guy who just wanted to kill himself waited until the copilot was out of the cockpit and ran the plane into the ocean. This looks different.

I think whoever did this fully expected the authorities to assume the plane was lost off the coast of Vietnam. I believe they thought they had more time. Things are degrading. I find it just as likely that, whatever the plan was, once they had cut themselves off from the rest of the world they flew the plan into the Himalayas or the Indian Ocean. But if that is NOT the case, where does that leave us?

The movie I remember was based on a plot to fly nuclear weapons into the US. If the plane was flown to Pakistan, and if there was an errant nuclear weapon available (perhaps after those protecting bin Laden felt betrayed by their own government), and if they could manage to refuel the plane again somewhere in North Africa, it could make it to the US. That is WILD SPECULATION, I realize that ... but it is also a worse case scenario that should be considered.

... particularly since, at the moment, I live in Norther Virginia

As long as I am engaged in wild speculation, does anyone know if there is a way to depressurize the cabin from the cockpit ... killing all the passengers and crew who did not have an oxygen mask on?

[TheCurmudgeon]

But in all fairness, along the more mundane.

So far no one has a solid “theory of the case,” as lawyers say. Mechanical malfunction — say, a sudden decompression that renders everyone onboard unconscious but lets the plane continue to fly — is still possible. A fire, perhaps from lithium batteries in the cargo hold, is another possibility.

But investigators suspect the disappearance could have been the result of a criminal act by a cockpit intruder or by someone in the crew. If that’s the case, there’s no obvious motive, no obvious perpetrator, no organization taking responsibility, no clear red flag about anyone onboard and nothing but speculation on how the hijacking or sabotage might have been carried out. The most essential question — where is the plane? — is unanswered.

One last thought from that article:

“Planes don’t just vanish and don’t just fall out of the sky. They go up and they come down,” he said.

I will admit, I like to stir the pot. But sometimes the pot needs to be stirred.

[Dayuhan]

Article suggesting pilot supported homosexuality (illegal in Malaysia) also pilots Wife and Children moved out of their home the day before the plane disappeared. May have hijacked plane as a form of protest!



http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...-mh370-3248001

This sounds like tabloid hysteria to me. Like many urban, educated Malaysians, he supported Anwar Ibrahim, an opposition leader who has been accused of being gay. Many, in and out of Malaysia, believe the charges were fabricated as a form of political harassment. The agenda of the PKR, Anwar's party, is generally multiracial (race issues are a big deal in Malaysia), pro-democracy, anti-corruption... what we would call moderate liberal.

It is worth noting that if he was solid PKR he was almost certainly not connected to any Islamic extremist group, opposite ends of the spectrum.

I would not give much weight to the wife and children angle until it's supported by more credible reporting.

[TheCurmudgeon]

only 47 more shopping days until the four year anniversary of bin Laden's death.

Yeah, that is a stretch, a long stretch, but what the heck. Might as well throw it out there.

[Dayuhan]

I don't believe any of that......(he/she/it flew 7 hours and landed some place stuff). The guy wanted to hijack the plane and something went wrong which cauesd the passengers to be killed (decompression or some other stuff way above my knowledge base) then it soaked into the pilots brain what he had done!!!!! and then drove the plane straight into the ocean.

The data pings from the aircraft confirm the flying time. Whether it landed or crashed at the end of that time, or whether anyone on board was conscious or even alive for much of that time, remains unknown, but we know how long it was in the air.

[Biggus]

You are right, there is nothing nefarious about it ... in and of itself. When tied to other facts it could indicate involvement and the ability to do simulations of flight paths and of landing on airstrips that he and never been to.

So yes, I believe it is relevant and should not be dismissed out of hand.

It's complete and utter garbage, if you're looking at the northern route. I've got exactly the same software as he does, and slightly better hardware. None of it could possibly be useful in developing the skillset to land a 777 on an airliner in the mountains of Central Asia. It shines as a procedural trainer (which was probably a good thing, considering he had a fairly low number of hours for a pilot with such a long career), but it does not help in learning how the aircraft will react to the unusual buffering and turbulence of an approach in the relevant areas.

Which Radar Facility under whose control tracked the 777 after it checked out of Kuala Lumpur's control and after it turned off its transponder, noted its directional change and flight back over Malay Peninsular? To know it was the 777 they would have had to be tracking it prior to it turning off its transponder. If an on radar unidentified flight was traveling at high speed over their country and (supposedly) being tracked by the Malaysian military why did they not report trying to communicate with it and why would they not scramble interceptors to at least look at it? Which radar facility operated by whom tracked the supposed altitude changes of the 777 -- presumably using 3D height finder capable radar? Those reported altitude climbs and descents in the T.V. reported times seem implausible for the 777 air frame. And why didn't that tracking facility report attempting to contact the aircraft when watching such radical flight changes and if no answer send out interceptors to find out what was going on? If it was the Malaysian military they appear to be a rather unusually slow or no responding group???

I've addressed the altitude discrepancies a page or so back.

I know that the Vietnamese ATC was going bonkers trying to contact MH370. That was perfectly reasonable, the last verbal comms was the handoff from Malay to Viet ATC. The Malaysians didn't expect further contact, the aircraft no longer appeared on their screen (due to the transponder being switched off), and it was no longer their responsibility to track the aircraft. For all the Malays knew as it was happening, the Vietnamese could have asked for a transponder code change.

As to why the Malaysians made no subsequent attempt to contact the now unknown contact on their primary radar (which would most likely belong to the RMAF), I'd be either looking for lack of communication between the civillian ATC and the owners of the primary radar, or I'd be wondering whether having unknown contacts pop up every now and then was a rare occurrance or not. I understand that it isn't uncommon.

As to the interceptors, we're talking about airspace that can be traversed in about fifteen minutes. I don't see the RMAF having a pair of FA-18s on Alert 5 24/7. They might manage a scramble with two hours' notice, but probably not much quicker.

Article suggesting pilot supported homosexuality (illegal in Malaysia) also pilots Wife and Children moved out of their home the day before the plane disappeared. May have hijacked plane as a form of protest!



http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...-mh370-3248001

And maybe (as quoted by the maid) the wife and kids went to their second home, as they might regularly do when hubby is away working.

You seriously think homosexuality is the real issue in the Anwar Ibrahim case?

The data pings from the aircraft confirm the flying time. Whether it landed or crashed at the end of that time, or whether anyone on board was conscious or even alive for much of that time, remains unknown, but we know how long it was in the air.

The other issue is the ELT. If the aircraft has crashed (and MAS kept up with the maintenance), there should be an ELT signal somewhere. It'd be hard to pick up in shallow waters, but if it's ended up at the south end of the southern arc, it'll eventually be found. It should be pinging away for 30 days, so we've got a couple of weeks left.

Of course, ELTs aren't perfect. They malfunction, they are battery powered and are therefore subject to being maintained regularly to keep them operational. They are sometimes set off by a hard landing.

There's still lots more to be divulged. We haven't been given the arcs for the other pings yet, and that is most likely for a good reason.

[Biggus]

As long as I am engaged in wild speculation, does anyone know if there is a way to depressurize the cabin from the cockpit ... killing all the passengers and crew who did not have an oxygen mask on?

I covered this yesterday.

Two ways to do it, either pull the circuit breaker in the E&E bay or just turn off the system on the overhead panel.

Bottled air at 40kft won't be enough to survive on for very long for anyone. 12 mins before the average person is dead in that environment.

[Dayuhan]

There's still lots more to be divulged. We haven't been given the arcs for the other pings yet, and that is most likely for a good reason.

Given the direction the investigation is going, I would not be surprised to see less and less information emerging.

[AmericanPride]

What fascinates me about this event is the many layers of open questions as well as the slow and poor response of the various governments involved. For example, nearly immediately a senior Malaysian officer stated that the plane returned to fly over the peninsula, but he was quickly rebuked by his own government and reversed himself, only to have his statement confirmed several days later. The Chinese government released several satellite images, which were disproved, only to say the next day that the images were released accidentally. And then within 24 hours, the Chinese cited a "seismic event" which also was disproved. Had they done something similar a third time, I would have accused the Chinese government of obstruction. It's also interesting how quickly the United States government put forth the theory that the flight was hijacked for use in a future operation. I think there's key information not being divulged here; the Malaysians are too disorganized and have been overtaken by events, the Chinese appear relatively incompetent but in an almost deliberate fashion, and the United States has been precise in its theories but vague in its reasons.

One thing that has not been brought up in the media, as far as I can tell, is the cargo manifest, though someone mentioned it here previously. Was there anything in the cargo or on one of the passengers deemed important or dangerous? According to the book Gideon's Spies, the Israelis interdicted a passenger on a Russia to Germany flight for carrying plutonium on his person with the intention to sell it. Proliferation is a major issue that rarely makes the news - what was the outcome of the 2007 South Africa nuclear plant incident? This is just speculation (and to be clear, there's no relation between that event and this one) but I think there is certainly more to this incident than currently being acknowledged.

I think the plane could have been deliberately diverted, interdicted, or otherwise detained or downed by a government or someone acting a government's behalf.

[Dayuhan]

Accessing the E&E bay wouldn't have tripped any alarms AFAIK. Disabling the transponder and ACARS VHF systems would open up a few possibilities for the crew to discover and become concerned about. There would be a warning message to notify the crew that the TCAS system which is integrated with the transponder, and this warning would be displayed on the screens in front of the pilots. It could be missed. Maybe. For 20 minutes or more, I don't know. If everything else was normal and this was the only issue to deal with, they'd take action in seconds. If there were other problems to be dealt with, once out of the airway it might become the last item on a long list of other problems to overcome.

Does that mean that anyone with the right knowledge and the right screwdriver can access the E&E bay without triggering any kind of alarm? That seems a bit of an oversight on the security side.

All we know of the cargo now is that it is not hazardous. There's speculation that the plane was carrying 50 fewer passengers than it normally would because of the weight of the cargo, and there's speculation that the cargo is gold. But I'd expect at least a moderately large number of armed guards and possibly some diplomatic staff to be on board.

That seems pretty speculative. I've flown around Asia a fair bit, and a flight that's not full generally just means they didn't sell all the tickets. Just on a loose basis... figure 60kg/passenger (predominantly Asian market, relatively small people) plus 20kg luggage/person... displacing 50 passengers gets you roughly 4000 kilos. Lot of gold. Worth a lot of effort to steal, yes, but hard to imagine why anyone would be shipping that around on a commercial airliner.

[Biggus]

Given the direction the investigation is going, I would not be surprised to see less and less information emerging.

Information is being managed, but I am more and more of the belief that it's being managed because the Malaysians don't have much experience in dealing with the media and are holding onto information in order to have something useful to say every day or two. We already know exactly how apparently insane the media becomes when left to their imaginations. I've heard everything from remote control by iphone app to night time formation flying over mainland China. Even Rupert Murdoch has said something like 'it's in NW Pakistan for future use, hidden like Bin Laden was'. Insanity.

One thing that has not been brought up in the media, as far as I can tell, is the cargo manifest, though someone mentioned it here previously. Was there anything in the cargo or on one of the passengers deemed important or dangerous? According to the book Gideon's Spies, the Israelis interdicted a passenger on a Russia to Germany flight for carrying plutonium on his person with the intention to sell it. Proliferation is a major issue that rarely makes the news - what was the outcome of the 2007 South Africa nuclear plant incident? This is just speculation (and to be clear, there's no relation between that event and this one) but I think there is certainly more to this incident than currently being acknowledged.

I think the plane could have been deliberately diverted, interdicted, or otherwise detained or downed by a government or someone acting a government's behalf.

The only information relating to the cargo is that it is non-hazardous in nature.

All we have beyond the currently released facts is speculation.

I am of the belief that the only place to land the aircraft on the northern arc is China, with the knowledge and cooperation of the Chinese government. Possibly a hijacking and seige being kept quiet until resolved.

Of course, I'm also of the belief that the focus on the northern arc was done simply because it'd be resolved faster. The southern arc will take a great deal more time and effort.

[Biggus]

Does that mean that anyone with the right knowledge and the right screwdriver can access the E&E bay without triggering any kind of alarm? That seems a bit of an oversight on the security side.

Maybe. Some airlines have bolted that access point from the inside of the bay. It's also something that would take a bit of time and certainly enough noise to make everyone in the first dozen rows very much aware that something was happening.

That seems pretty speculative. I've flown around Asia a fair bit, and a flight that's not full generally just means they didn't sell all the tickets. Just on a loose basis... figure 60kg/passenger (predominantly Asian market, relatively small people plus 20kg luggage/person... displacing 50 passengers gets you roughly 4000 kilos. Lot of gold. Worth a lot of effort to steal, yes, but hard to imagine why anyone would be shipping that around on a commercial airliner.

The airlines calculate on 77kg average per person, and 23kg baggage, IIRC.

I can't imagine sending what could possibly be several hundred million dollars' worth of gold without significant security, to include a specially chartered flight.

But it's one of the theories that have been put out there. As we've both noted, the signal-to-noise ratio in the information we've been given is at least mildly disturbing.

[carl]

Where the plane could land:



Or link:http://project.wnyc.org/runways/

Does that map include all the old WWII airfields?

[Dayuhan]

I am of the belief that the only place to land the aircraft on the northern arc is China, with the knowledge and cooperation of the Chinese government. Possibly a hijacking and seige being kept quiet until resolved.

Or the Chinese shot it down, subsequently realized that a bunch of their citizens were on board, and decided not to mention it... there are places along the China/Myanmar border for a downed plane to disappear.

That's only slightly less farfetched than the idea that it's hidden in Pakistan.

I'd expect the Chinese to resolve a siege pretty quickly, though not necessarily cleanly.

Of course, I'm also of the belief that the focus on the northern arc was done simply because it'd be resolved faster. The southern arc will take a great deal more time and effort.

That makes more sense. Less entertainment, but more sense.

[Biggus]

Does that map include all the old WWII airfields?

Probably not.

You could probably discount the vast majority of them, a lightly loaded 777 would be significantly heavier than a fully loaded B-17 and require a much longer landing run. Factor in several decades of no upkeep in the tropics, it'd be a miracle to not become a smoking hole in the mud.

Not impossible. About as likely as landing in China, Pakistan, Kazakhstan or Iran, really.