Airliner missing between Malaysia and Cambodia/Vietnam, terrorism possible

[Biggus]

That's from 2013.

Good pickup. It's a very interesting question.

[Dayuhan]

I brought that up based upon some reports coming from other sources. I believed then and still do this was a Pilot suicide. He was either extremely embarrassed or possibly being blackmailed based upon some deep personal secret he has (homosexuality,etc.).

Of course that's not impossible (not much is, at this point) but there seems to be no publicly available evidence at all to suggest such a problem. The allegation that his family moved out seems to go back to a subdivision security guard saying that they'd left the house and a tabloid reporter spinning a story out of it. There's no reason at all to suppose he's gay... so it really doesn't get us anywhere beyond idle speculation.

[Dayuhan]

http://my.news.yahoo.com/police-prob...013714248.html

Police probe finds no red flags on MH370 pilots, says report

Police investigations into the pilot and co-pilot of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have not turned up any red flags in their backgrounds, The Wall Street Journal reported today.

A source close to the investigations told the business daily that information on the two men – 53-year-old Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27 – were shared with its counterparts in other countries.

But so far, no suspicious activities or associations had turned up, reported The Wall Street Journal.

A few media outlets are pointing out that the pilot's flight simulator was able to simulate landings in the Maldives, Diego Garcia, and southern India. Some are trying to spin that into a big deal. Others are honest enough to point out that the same software contains thousands of runways all over the world in practically every region.

[anotherguy]

Good pickup. It's a very interesting question.

While I haven't done it yet, I would bet that the plot of the known 2013 route of both ships would be interesting when added to the map of the known flight information. Right around a year before MH370 went missing, those two ships were the first ship Iranian naval ships to traverse the Straight of Malacca since 1979.

If I was writing this as a novel, I would be using the Iranian's claim that they identified 370 surface and subsurface vessels on the 2013 mission as a plot piece, but in reality I would guess it means that they saw some boats that they were able to identify as such.

Possibly coincidentally, a Russian SIGINT ship has been in port in both Venezuela and Cuba this month. Presumably to monitor our reactions to the Iranian vessels.

[Biggus]

http://my.news.yahoo.com/police-prob...013714248.html



A few media outlets are pointing out that the pilot's flight simulator was able to simulate landings in the Maldives, Diego Garcia, and southern India. Some are trying to spin that into a big deal. Others are honest enough to point out that the same software contains thousands of runways all over the world in practically every region.

The last Microsoft Flight Simulator release (the development of which has since been taken up by Lockheed Martin) contained over 24,000 unique airfields, civillian and military, and there would be literally hundreds of thousands of additions to that created by enthusiasts and commercial companies.

I'm reading the initial release of incorrect information regarding the termination of the ACARS transmissions as an intentional mislead.

Also noteworthy is that apparently the Chinese have been late to the party in terms of checking their territory for errant Boeings. They're now conducting an inland search on the assumption that they didn't catch it slip through their primary radar systems.

Out-of-fuel aircraft crashing produce surprisingly little fire, and depending on the angle of impact, SAR teams may be looking for an impact and debris site on land as small as 50x50m. If it's in the ocean, if it isn't found in the next two weeks, it probably won't be found for decades.

[Biggus]

While I haven't done it yet, I would bet that the plot of the known 2013 route of both ships would be interesting when added to the map of the known flight information. Right around a year before MH370 went missing, those two ships were the first ship Iranian naval ships to traverse the Straight of Malacca since 1979.

If I was writing this as a novel, I would be using the Iranian's claim that they identified 370 surface and subsurface vessels on the 2013 mission as a plot piece, but in reality I would guess it means that they saw some boats that they were able to identify as such.

Possibly coincidentally, a Russian SIGINT ship has been in port in both Venezuela and Cuba this month. Presumably to monitor our reactions to the Iranian vessels.

I've spent a couple of hours considering that it's possible that the Iranian ships were in the area, and what their actions could possibly be should they decide that MH370 was a threat or otherwise a target.

Here's my problem: What armaments would either ship carry that could engage an airliner at 35kft? Both ships have basic AAA, conceivably they might have a few MANPADs, but firing a Strela at a target at FL350 is a bit like attempting to snipe someone a mile away with a .22LR.

So we'd be left with some sort of electronic warfare scenario.

I'm not discounting it, because there were a few other irregularities in the area in terms of transponder discrepancies. Not terribly unusual, but they were all in the same area around the same time.

[former_0302]

If it's in the ocean, if it isn't found in the next two weeks, it probably won't be found for decades.

I've got to disagree with you. If they do, in fact, have a circle like Dayuhan posted in post #42 of this thread for every hour that the plane was in flight, they either already have a very good idea where the plane ended up or they just haven't talked to anybody who knows a bit about geometry yet. If they have that info, it's just a math problem, and not a particularly hard one.

Which is why, as you alluded to in an earlier post, it is kind of suspicious that they only released the last arc, and not the previous ones.

EDIT: As I think about this more, it's a fairly easy problem IF the plane was going in more or less of a straight line after last contact. If it was following a weird, broken route, or circling, it becomes a lot more difficult, but still not impossible.

[anotherguy]

Now the Thai Air Force is stating that they picked up a twisting path of an unidentified craft, but didn't provide the information because they weren't specifically asked for it. Makes one wonder who else is holding information.

Additionally, a low flying plane was spotted by multiple people over the Maldives at 0615 the morning of the disappearance.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...H370-live.html

[slapout9]

Of course that's not impossible (not much is, at this point) but there seems to be no publicly available evidence at all to suggest such a problem. The allegation that his family moved out seems to go back to a subdivision security guard saying that they'd left the house and a tabloid reporter spinning a story out of it. There's no reason at all to suppose he's gay... so it really doesn't get us anywhere beyond idle speculation.

Except the jailed political leader is now admitting he is related to the pilot. Which doesn't make him guilty of anything but why keep it secret for so long?

[slapout9]

I disagree that logic an reason aren't relevant, particularly if someone is calculatedly stealing an aircraft and disappearing. It doesn't account for every single possibility, but it's a good place to start.

I understand that and it is perfectly OK to have that point of view especially with your extensive technical background.

You sure about that? The hardware answers are incredibly compelling. We now know that the ACARS radio links were not disabled before last voice contact. We've got a radar track that shows the aircraft turning off to the best possible shot at a safe landing at Langkawi and a bunch of stuff that looks like shutting down systems in the cockpit to eliminate a fire, which they may have managed to do, but not before succumbing to asphyxia or hypoxia.

The hardware answers look far less like terrorism.

I am not sure about any of this. I simply propose certain theories and then let people comment on them as far as their possible accuracy or inaccuracy.

[TheCurmudgeon]

This is what I was saying yesterday. ACARS radio links weren't disabled prior to last voice contact.

With that change, electrical/computer failures are back on the table.

I actually considered the possibility that the rapid climb (tied to an intentional depressurization) was an intentional attempt to starve the fire of oxygen - as unlikely as that would be. More likely that the radar data is flawed.

The hardware answers are incredibly compelling. We now know that the ACARS radio links were not disabled before last voice contact. We've got a radar track that shows the aircraft turning off to the best possible shot at a safe landing at Langkawi and a bunch of stuff that looks like shutting down systems in the cockpit to eliminate a fire, which they may have managed to do, but not before succumbing to asphyxia or hypoxia.

The hardware answers look far less like terrorism.

Lets say that there was a fire,

1) why no Mayday? Aren't there backup comms systems? Aren't there automatic systems that would communicate a fire on board?

2) why the continued course changes? I suppose the system could have continued to degrade, but it seems odd (assuming there is any credibility to the radar information, a dangerous assumption based on recent events).

[Stan]

I seem to remember that the western Sahara has been the site of many "lost" aircraft landings from drug smugglers flying over from South America.

Yo Dude, long time no see (or hear) ! How goes the war ?

Ain't that the truth. How many air frames vegetate in Africa, either sold or cannibalized.

Given that scenario however would require a few in flight refueling (or one hell of a tail wind)

[former_0302]

Interesting take on the situation from a pilot:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03...ectrical-fire/

[TheCurmudgeon]

Assuming the fire scenario, and the pilot/copilot had enough time to turn the plane, would they not also place the plane on a glide path to the airport, or does that require too much additional data entry?

[slapout9]

Wouldn't the pilot call out some type of mayday call signal to alert the airport of an emergancy landing?

[wm]

Yo Dude, long time no see (or hear) ! How goes the war ?

Ain't that the truth. How many air frames vegetate in Africa, either sold or cannibalized.

Given that scenario however would require a few in flight refueling (or one hell of a tail wind)

Depends on what is being smuggled and how far it needed to move. Might have been on the plane when it left Kuala Lumpur.

[omarali50]

This plane is now in the twilight zone and we will probably never have near-consensus on what happened, but I was thinking: all this speculation must have given several people some very interesting new ideas...

[Biggus]

Lets say that there was a fire,

1) why no Mayday? Aren't there backup comms systems? Aren't there automatic systems that would communicate a fire on board?

2) why the continued course changes? I suppose the system could have continued to degrade, but it seems odd (assuming there is any credibility to the radar information, a dangerous assumption based on recent events).

Priorities in order of importance are to aviate, navigate and then communicate. From the perspective of the crew, an electrical fire is going to result in immediately depowering large chunks of avionics and comms equipment and then powering one thing at a time back up until the relevant system is found. The system you'd expect to automatically report a fire to the outside world is ACARS, and we know that didn't work for whatever reason.

No mayday could be easily chalked up to either being overtaken by events in fighting the fire or the fire knocking the radio comms out. There are a number of different radios onboard, but the breakers would be pulled at the same time.

Course changes beyond the radar tracking are likely to be the aircraft following the active plan in the FMS, whatever that might have been. Like I hypothesised earlier, getting off the airway while troubleshooting items that include the transponder would be a key priority. Punch in a few nearby waypoints that sound reasonably acceptable (and under increasingly hypoxic conditions, strange things can sound reasonably acceptable) and begin dealing with the fire/decompression/whatever.

Or the radar tracking is disinformation or a cover to explain how the aircraft got to it's present position without compromising someone's capability.

Assuming the fire scenario, and the pilot/copilot had enough time to turn the plane, would they not also place the plane on a glide path to the airport, or does that require too much additional data entry?

From their last tracked position, going back to KL would mean clearing some obstructions on approach. Langkawi was the nearest reasonably safe approach available at the time, from what I understand. That's the direction the aircraft was initially heading.

Wouldn't the pilot call out some type of mayday call signal to alert the airport of an emergancy landing?

As I've said above, communication is third priority in line after getting a handle on aviation and navigation. If ACARS VHF and HF datalinks are out, voice comms are probably out too, but that shouldn't matter too much, because there are lost comms procedures. How these lost comms procedures work with loss of transponder, I don't really know.

I think it's extremely important to point out that this scenario is basically a one-in-a-million perfect storm, if this is what has happened.

This plane is now in the twilight zone and we will probably never have near-consensus on what happened, but I was thinking: all this speculation must have given several people some very interesting new ideas...

Probably true.


Something else that I've found interesting today is the relationship between Malaysia and Thailand, sharing radar data 10 days after the disappearance.

I'm also learning that a number of SAR aircraft are currently sitting on the ground awaiting overflight clearance from neighbouring countries.

[TheCurmudgeon]

From their last tracked position, going back to KL would mean clearing some obstructions on approach. Langkawi was the nearest reasonably safe approach available at the time, from what I understand. That's the direction the aircraft was initially heading.

I understand the reason for the heading, but why remain at the same altitude. Wouldn't you tell the computer that you were going to land, allowing not only the direction but the altitude of the plane to change automatically. From what I have read the 777 is capable of landing itself if programed. Would you not want to tell the plane that you were going to land, or would that take too much effort?

[anotherguy]

From what I have read the 777 is capable of landing itself if programed. Would you not want to tell the plane that you were going to land, or would that take too much effort?

It would presumably be the only option so I would think that for whatever reason it wasn't a possibility be it the crew or hardware was no longer operational. Given that the plane will find 0 AGL on its own at some point, I couldn't imagine fighting to get that done until it just wasn't possible or I was dead instead of spending 7 hellish hours waiting to fall out of the sky.