Sudan Watch (to July 2012)

[sgmgrumpy]

Particular interest is page 48, Non-signatory SLA factions. Since 2003, smaller groups have broken off from SLA/JEM and are forming new ones. Mainly to have a seat in the upcoming peace talks.

Divided They Fall: The Fragmentation of Darfur’s Rebel Groups

The G-19, an SLA splinter group that emerged in March 2006, has become the main rebel group in Darfur since the DPA was signed. It was originally formed by 19 commanders from North Darfur who said they rejected both Minni’s authoritarianism and abuses and Abdel-Wahid’s weakness. Some came on board before the Haskanita conference, but most joined at the northern commanders’ meeting in Karo, Bir Mazza, in December 2005.

In May 2006, the G-19 still had no more than 15 vehicles: by early October, five months later, it was estimated to possess around 100 vehicles, mostly taken from government forces and SLA-Minni. The fighting force is now thought to be about 5,000, almost all in North Darfur.98 The G-19 is said to recruit with ease among the Zaghawa refugee camps in eastern Chad, but it lacks the weapons to arm its new fighters.

Making Sense of Darfur: Watch Kordofan

In the coming year, Kordofan is at serious risk of large scale violence—and any such violence could have disastrous ramifications for the whole of Sudan. Here’s why.

The central political issues in Sudan today are the 2009 general elections and the 2011 referendum on self-determination for Southern Sudan. If either of these were to fail, the prospect of major hostilities looms. Kordofan is the location of several possible flashpoints for war, and should there be a new war for any reason, it is certain that it would engulf Kordofan and cause immense human suffering.

There are five particular causes for concern........