Sudan Watch (to July 2012)

[Rex Brynen]

UN fury at Darfur militia ambush, BBC News, 9 July 2008.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon has condemned an ambush which left seven members of the joint UN-African Union peace mission to Sudan's Darfur region dead.
Twenty-two others were injured, seven critically, in one of the deadliest assaults on UN forces in recent years.

The UN says its peacekeepers fought for over two hours to repulse suspected Janjaweed fighters, who were armed with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades.

If it was the Janjaweed, and if the attack was in the numbers and with the firepower reported (40 attacking vehicles with mounted MG/AA/RCL), it would seem to be the Sudanese sending signals to UNAMID, whether about ICC prosecution or generally to deter the mission from showing too much operational ambition.

[davidbfpo]

I note the BBC website does not indicate which contingent was attacked. I recall AU patrols have been ambushed, even disarmed (including a South African unit). The Sudanese state has played a very astute role throughout the Darfur crisis. Will the ambush discourage AU / UN nations contributing? I suspect so.

davidbfpo

[Rex Brynen]

I note the BBC website does not indicate which contingent was attacked.

According to AFP, one Ugandan police officer was among those killed. Also:

UN officials in Sudan said a Ghanaian was among the dead, and that 17 Rwandan peacekeepers, and others from Ghana, Senegal and South Africa, were among the wounded. Some of the victims are in intensive care.

[Tom Odom]

UN officials in Sudan said a Ghanaian was among the dead, and that 17 Rwandan peacekeepers, and others from Ghana, Senegal and South Africa, were among the wounded. Some of the victims are in intensive care.

The Rwandans will not put up with this crap. Look for a retaliation.

Tom

[Rex Brynen]

This would certainly explain why Sudan might want to up the ante against UNAMID:

Sudan Leader To Be Charged With Genocide
Peace Efforts in Darfur Could Be Hampered, Some U.N. Officials Fear

By Colum Lynch and Nora Boustany
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, July 11, 2008; Page A01

UNITED NATIONS, July 10 -- The chief prosecutor of the Internationals Criminal Court will seek an arrest warrant Monday for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, charging him with genocide and crimes against humanity in the orchestration of a campaign of violence that led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians in the nation's Darfur region during the past five years, according to U.N. officials and diplomats.

It will also be a massive test case for the ICC, with profound repercussions for its future.

[Norfolk]

The Rwandans will not put up with this crap. Look for a retaliation.

Tom

Rex wrote:

well, this would explain it...

This would certainly explain why Sudan might want to up the ante against UNAMID:

Sudan Leader To Be Charged With Genocide
Peace Efforts in Darfur Could Be Hampered, Some U.N. Officials Fear

[]

It will also be a massive test case for the ICC, with profound repercussions for its future.

It goes without saying of course that it is rather unlikely that the accused will ever appear before the ICC; possible, but exceedingly improbable. The bitter truth is that by taking a swipe at the Rwandans, the Sudanese may end up starting something they may not be able to handle. The next time rebels march on Khartoum, they just might be bringing a wringer with them.

Someone in Khartoum right now should be engaging in some sober second thought.

[Tom Odom]

Rwanda Threatens Darfur Pullout if U.N. Removes GeneralUNITED NATIONS, July 23 -- Rwanda has warned that it will withdraw its 3,000 peacekeepers from a U.N.-backed mission in the Darfur region of Sudan if the United Nations refuses to retain an alleged Rwandan war criminal as its second-highest-ranking commander there, according to U.S. and U.N. officials.

The United Nations has sought to persuade the Rwandan government to replace Maj. Gen. Emmanuel Karake Karenzi, the deputy force commander of a joint African Union and U.N. peacekeeping mission in Darfur. A Spanish judge indicted Karenzi and 39 other Rwandan officers in February for alleged war crimes in Rwanda in the mid-1990s.

I know Karake about as well as any westerner can know a foriegn officer. Hei s brave, intelligent, and feared by his enemies. The Spanish charges are to my mind more of the Hutu reverse genocide information operation that has been ongoing since 1994. For that matter, I have been targeted by the same. As for the 2000 fight in Kisangani, I cannot say. It seems to me if the UN looked into it--as they did--then it should be a dead issue.

The UN and the Rwandan government do not "like" each other. This symptomaric of that dislike.

Tom

The pic is from the Iwawa clearing operation. I was on the island with Karake shown in this picture.

[Tom Odom]

PS

Reference Karake and operations in 1997, my second Ambassador Bob Gribbin singles out Karake for praise in his book on that time period. The insurgency was raging in western and northwestern Rwanda, complicated by RPA heavy handed sweeps that turned bloody. Then COL Karenzi took command of the sector and with former ex-FAR battalion commanders in his brigade changed operations and disciplined the troops. Some of that included summary executions of RPA soldiers found guilty of killing civilians. he restored control of the RPA and at the same time finished the Hutu insurgency as a force inside Rwanda.

[Tom Odom]

More on the Spanish case and General Karenzi

Judgment without borders
What we are seeing is the birth of a type of worldwide judicial anarchy.
By David B. Rivkin Jr. and Lee A. Casey
October 6, 2008

'He may be a sonofabitch," President Franklin Roosevelt is supposed to have muttered, referring to a Nicaraguan dictator, "but he is our sonofabitch."

That is foreign policy realism in a nutshell -- straightforward, practical, pursuing the national interest regardless of ideology. Its counterpart, of course, is a foreign policy driven by idealism and conviction -- a credo often called Wilsonian, after President Woodrow Wilson, but most recently associated with the neoconservative movement. These days, the assumptions of both schools of thought are threatened by a new global actor in the form of international judicial activism.

[RobSentse]

When a country has been hit by disaster or (civil) war usually also the governmental institutions suffer. Sometimes the whole governmental system has to be building up again. In such an environment there are opportunities for coaching.

Also the international community can create a comprehensive approach by the use of a coach. It would be beneficial for a country, if the UN / EU would deploy civil servants from crucial workplaces and from several levels, of "our" own governmental management into war thorn countries, to work as a coach for their fellow civil servants.
This would be a kind of a left-seat / right-seat activity in which they guide their colleagues through governmental processes and procedures.
Another basic element to build a healthy nation is a general mental health.
Have a look at Sudan and be aware that the same is the case for other war-thorn countries or countries that suffered severe disasters.

Nearly all programs of nearly every organization that wants to bring prosperity
completely lack a comprehensive psychological-social approach towards the population.
Until now there is no awareness, recognition nor acknowledgement that Sudan exists of a traumatized population, possibly the sole item that the Sudanese population share mutually. Because of this the population hinders their own progress.

Within the Sudanese population, and possibly more in the South, there is an experience of being a perpetrator, victim or spectator (sometimes these three elements are united in one person).
It would be wise to integrate a psychological-social care program within Nation Building processes.

A proper psychological-social trauma care program works to overcome and prevent traumatic stress and its consequences within the individual as well as the community, safeguarding the rights and dignity of people affected by violence and conflict.
Such a trauma care program aims to strengthen local resources for the development of peaceful, human rights-based, societal ways of living.
Furthermore it would be beneficial for the country, in this case the Government of South-Sudan (GoSS), if the UN / EU would deploy civil servants from crucial workplaces and from several levels of "our" own governmental management into South Sudan, to work as a coach for their fellow civil servants at ALL levels.

A kind of a left-seat / right-seat activity in which they guide their (former military) colleagues through governmental processes and procedures.

This is very important as part of the Influence Campaign Plan. It is in fact crucial to create a healthy Pol/Econ environment for proper nation building.
So, if the “troop contributing” countries feel so committed to the prosperity of a country, than one of the most important “condition shapers” are "our own” governmental civil servants.

This, in a concerted approach with “security providers” like “own military and police”, is important to reach a desired end state.
It´s important to note that “own military and police” has to cooperate closely with “local military and police”, bearing in mind that Nation building is not an exclusive “military/police party”.
More important is the input of "our own” governmental civil servants who cooperate closely with the local civil servants at ALL levels.

Cross training, cross learning, cross teaching ... without trying to copy “our” democratic values into a country that is founded on quite another culture.

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[SWJ Blog]

Sudan Update

Entry Excerpt:

South Sudanese vote overwhelmingly for secession by Josh Kron and Jeffrey Gettleman of the New York Times. BLUF: "Nearly 99 percent of southern Sudanese voters have chosen to split off from northern Sudan and form their own country, according to preliminary results of an independence referendum..."



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[SWJ Blog]

The Terrorist Climate of Sudan

Entry Excerpt:



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