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I would define COIN success as stabilizing the environment so that a functional government can exist and people can profit from the economy with a reasonable sense of personal safety. By that standard, Kenya was a success, but so was Ireland, Scotland, Canada, and a number of other places. To use other examples, Goa was a success for Portugal for many years, as was Angola (which, if memory serves, was a Portuguese colony for a time). But this points out the other aspect of COIN: what worked in the past may not work in the future, even in the same geographic region. The Great Mutiny is a good example of this.
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