Was the Karbala Kidnapping a Cover to Steal a Military Laptop?

[bismark17]

That's very interesting. I am embarassed to say the thought never crossed my mind. It does seem kind of like Mission Impossible that they knew there was something so important on that drive to go to those lengths when less obtrusive methods usually exist to obtain networked digital data.

[Chris Albon]

It only crossed my mind when the AP article mentioned "the laptop" like I had already read about it.

I am no expert at insurgencies, but the attacks in Iraq all seem to be describable as "utterly simple but extremely effective" yet if this Karbala attack was just a failed kidnapping then it was "extremely expensive but utterly ineffective" at achieving its goals.

[Jedburgh]

Unfortunately, it is all too easy for the bad guys to get their hands on a US military laptop - and much, much easier for them to obtain jump drives with highly sensitive and even classified info.

The Karbala op was obviously preceded by extensive surveillance, planning and prep. If it was launched for a specific lap-top, it would only be if they had solid intel regarding very specific details of what was loaded on a specific lap-top. On top of that, they would have to know the precise location of that exact laptop at the intended time of execution in order to justify the commitment of the assets used in the attack. I find all of that to be unlikely and regard the laptop as an opportunity snatch. I agree with JC's assessment that the bad guys had other intentions for their captives that they were forced to abandon due to circumstances beyond their control.

[bismark17]

I agree. But, even if the main mission failed they did reinforce a sense of fear and culture of reluctance to venture outside FOBs. As long as the suspects are "at-large" they succeded in at least a minor way. It's very unfortunate.

[jonSlack]

The Karbala attack and the IRGC

The American Forces Information Service provides the details of the attack in Karbala. Based on the sophisticated nature of the raid, as well as the response, or cryptic non-responses, from multiple military and intelligence sources, this raid appears to have been directed and executed by the Qods Force branch of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps. My sources agreed this is far to sophisticated an operation for the Mahdi Army or Badr Corps, while al-Qaeda in Iraq would have a difficult time mounting such an operation in the Shia south. "The Karbala Government Center raid the other day was a little too professional for JAM [Jaish al-Mahdi, or the Mahdi Army]," according to a military source.

...

The Karbala raid makes sense in light of the U.S. raids on the Iranian diplomatic missions in Baghdad and Irbil, where Iranian Qods Force agents were captured, along with documentation that divulged Iran's involvement with and support of Shia death squads, the Sunni insurgent, and al-Qaeda in Iraq and Ansar al-Sunnah. Five Iranians from the Irbil raid are still in U.S. custody, and captured U.S. soldiers would provide for excellent bargaining chips

An implied task of every military operation is to gain intelligence. I am willing to bet the decision to take the laptop (If one was taken) and the captives was made by the raid leader on the ground. However, when the raid party got to its rally point, a more senior leader was present and he gave the order to keep the laptop and leave the Soldiers.

I doubt a laptop was the sole target of this attack. I think the raid was undertaken because the occupants inside were being effective in their AO. Additionally, part of the "clear and hold" plan is to create Joint Security Stations (JSS) that are significantly smaller than many FOBs that currently exist in Iraq. This attack may have been a "proof of concept" for future attacks on the JSSes. Finally, this was also a considerable propaganda victory for the attackers.

[jcustis]

Finally, this was also a considerable propaganda victory for the attackers.

...And when coupled with reports of large forces trying to seize holy sites in Najaf, gets my spidey senses tingling that the bad guys are going into overdrive.

I suspect that we'll see a shrine/mosque bombed within the next 30 days, while the surge is debated over and over. We've telegraphed the "surge" so poorly that I fear our right hook will be a whiff and leave us with nothing more than a dislocated shoulder.

[Jedburgh]

...it's really entertaining the way which Roggio continually presents supposition as fact