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Thread: Taming Pakistan: Modi Effect

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    Do you really think the Indians should worry about others think or say?
    Of course not... They should act in their own best interests regardless (much like Americans do).

    Advice from the US is best ignored - probably doing the exact opposite would be the best course of action.

    If India has a problem it is that it lacks the necessary aggression to really establish itself as a real Power in the region.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    If demography was the key factor whether India's Muslim population became 'radicalised' would be a strategic issue beyond India itself.

    In 2001 there were 138,188,240 Muslims, or 13.4% of the population

    Certainly when I looked at the issue in 2008 it was clear violent radical Muslims were a tiny minority. For example:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student...ement_of_India
    David:

    In every census since India was born the governments tracked religion, except the last one in 2011. That's for a good reason; the Muslim population percentage is said to be surging forward and the govt. in power didn't want the majority community to start worrying about its existence (it has good reason to do so, as Hindus have basically been wiped out from every Muslim majority region of South Asia)

    By various accounts and projections, the Muslim population percentage in India now is around 17-18%.

    There is this question of what definition one uses to define a Muslim to be a violent radical. By all accounts (including various polls) such percentages are low even in jihadist infested countries such as Pakistan.

    But I think what's more relevant is the ability of violent Islamist groups to form and sustain themselves in a community. I have developed a new way of looking at this (this will be published in a 12,000 word academic journal article, due out in July -- for your information, let me tell you that I refer to a lot of data from the Pakistani Muslim immigrant community in the UK).

    As someone with considerable exposure to the ongoing violent radicalization of Indian Muslims (as in my 2009 book), I can tell you that, Indian Muslims are now undergoing second generation process of radicalization. The Indian version of Tahreek-e-Taliban (modeled after the famous militant group in Pakistan) has just been formed in the central Indian city of Aurangabad. Few years ago the security agencies unearthed a massive arms haul there, that included extensive light arms, enough to equip a small militant group.

    In 2008, India's National Security Advisor admitted that there are at least 800 terror cells operating, presumably in India's Muslim communities, supported by the likes of Pakistan and assisted by the Saudi funding. Indeed, India is primed to have its own version of Boko-Haram very soon. The underlying process are specific to Muslim communities and are assiduously cultivated by external Islamic governments (of course, the Western governments are busy blaming the local government(s) for what are mostly self-induced Muslim community-specific processes).

    What this says is that the Western governments should get their act together and help India led by Mr. Modi, and not undermine him, as I believe they are primed to do (by trying to constantly put him on the defensive). That would be a strategic blunder.

    Unless the current trends in Islamization are quickly and permanently reversed, we are looking at an India that's also going in the direction of Nigeria and more.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post

    If India has a problem it is that it lacks the necessary aggression to really establish itself as a real Power in the region.
    You are so correct about the past. I wrote an article about 10 years ago titled "Slaves, Servants and Rulers." The Indian society now has a ruling class that can and will assert itself. Mr. Modi, I believe, represents them.

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    Default Helping India

    Cited in small part:
    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    What this says is that the Western governments should get their act together and help India led by Mr. Modi, and not undermine him, as I believe they are primed to do (by trying to constantly put him on the defensive). That would be a strategic blunder.

    Unless the current trends in Islamization are quickly and permanently reversed, we are looking at an India that's also going in the direction of Nigeria and more.
    I am not sure what would come from the West acting together to help the incoming, new Indian government - assuming they could act together. Yes there are some simple steps that can be done, although I am unconvinced they actually could undermine him. See this for a US viewpoint:http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...519-story.html

    From my faraway "armchair" the reported growth of Islamization seems tame alongside India's own 'small wars', none of which to my knowledge are realted to Islamization - if one excludes Kashmir. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2248
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Cited in small part:

    I am not sure what would come from the West acting together to help the incoming, new Indian government - assuming they could act together. Yes there are some simple steps that can be done, although I am unconvinced they actually could undermine him. See this for a US viewpoint:http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...519-story.html

    From my faraway "armchair" the reported growth of Islamization seems tame alongside India's own 'small wars', none of which to my knowledge are realted to Islamization - if one excludes Kashmir. See:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2248
    Public statements by Western high officials about the need to focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots and directives to the State Dept. etc to do the same are among the things that should help.

    The current metrics that are being used to characterize the onset of the so-called Islamization process are hardly robust IMO. And hence, what conventional wisdom says in this context needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

    As I have shown in my forthcoming work, sharia's popularity is probably by far the most appropriate metric. By this measure growth of radicalism in India is not tame at all. It is a juggernaut trending toward formation and sustaining of Islamist militant group all over India.

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    Moorthy:

    When you say Mr. Modi's gov will actively work to defang Pakistan, how do you think they will go about doing that?

    It is something that must be done, probably the sooner the better, but it will be tricky.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    As you live outside the US one would think that you would be able to establish how the world sees American foreign policy actions (or interference).
    What I've been able to establish is that practically everyone in the world "knows" what's best for the US and "knows" what the US ought to do, and that practically everyone in the world is upset that the Americans don't do what they think the Americans ought to do. Of course all of these opinions are different, often widely divergent, and generally completely incompatible. You can hardly walk into a bar or an internet forum on this planet without hearing some blowhard discoursing at length on what the Americans ought to do and how the Americans are such fools for not following the prescription offered by the blowhard. Of course all of the blowhards have different prescriptions and most of them are grossly inconsistent with reality, but one gets used to that. I've occasionally introduced myself as Canadian just to escape the invariable lecture.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    There is a simple reason why the US 'empire' will last a short 75 years and that is because the US are both unable and unwilling to understand the realities of the world they live and see everything through myopic and parochial eyes.
    Non-Americans also see the world, and America, through their own parochial and often myopic eyes.

    I don't think there ever was an "American Empire" in any literal or meaningful sense, and I don't think that American primacy was necessarily a good thing for America or the world. In any event the US no longer enjoys economic primacy (a good thing; a unipolar global economy is a very unstable thing) and a power that does not have economic primacy cannot reasonably aspire to military primacy, so there will have to be adaptation. Those who fail to adapt don't survive.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    You really expect the world which has been subjected to the ravages resulting from the incompetent foreign policy adventures of the US to be understanding of the US's domestic challenges (which you list)?
    The world can understand the domestic realities of the US or not, as it pleases. Just as it would be silly for India to submit it's policies to American review (or to expect automatic American support for its policies and leaders), it would be equally silly for the US to submit its own policies for foreign review and approval. Those outside the US (and most of those inside it) need to accept that the US government will not always do what they want. That would of course be impossible even if the US tried to do what they want, because they all have different ideas about what the US ought to do... and of course they all "know" that their particular slice of myopia and parochialism is the true and right one.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    These comments are Germaine to this discussion as unfortunately the US still the power to interfere and really screw things up in the subcontinent.
    The subcontinent also retains the power to screw things up on its own, although when they do somebody somewhere will invariably find a way to blame it on the US. Some things are inevitable...
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-22-2014 at 01:21 PM. Reason: Fix quote
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    Public statements by Western high officials about the need to focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots and directives to the State Dept. etc to do the same are among the things that should help.
    That should help what?

    Mr Modi himself could make that process easier by making clear, unequivocal statements to the effect that his government is committed to providing equal protection to all citizens, and that violence against minorities or majorities would absolutely not be tolerated. Of course such statements would have to be backed up with action to mean anything, but statements would be a start.

    Expecting other countries to "focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots" in the absence of any such effort from Mr Modi would be to effectively ask them to condone mass murder. The world should not pretend that Gujarat didn't happen, any more than they should pretend that Mumbai didn't happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    As I have shown in my forthcoming work
    Bit of confusion in the tenses there. "Have shown" is past, "forthcoming" is future. It's one or the other, not both.

    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    ...sharia's popularity is probably by far the most appropriate metric. By this measure growth of radicalism in India is not tame at all. It is a juggernaut trending toward formation and sustaining of Islamist militant group all over India.
    Impossible to comment without seeing the work. Would you care to summarize the evidence, arguments, and recommendations?

    Just to be clear: I do not think Indians should care what the US thinks, or submit policies for US review. I also do not think the Indians should expect automatic support for their policies or leaders from the US or any Western power.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    That should help what?

    Mr Modi himself could make that process easier by making clear, unequivocal statements to the effect that his government is committed to providing equal protection to all citizens, and that violence against minorities or majorities would absolutely not be tolerated. Of course such statements would have to be backed up with action to mean anything, but statements would be a start.

    Expecting other countries to "focus away from Mr. Modi's purported acts or in acts in 2002 Gujarat riots" in the absence of any such effort from Mr Modi would be to effectively ask them to condone mass murder. The world should not pretend that Gujarat didn't happen, any more than they should pretend that Mumbai didn't happen.

    Bit of confusion in the tenses there. "Have shown" is past, "forthcoming" is future. It's one or the other, not both.

    Impossible to comment without seeing the work. Would you care to summarize the evidence, arguments, and recommendations?

    Just to be clear: I do not think Indians should care what the US thinks, or submit policies for US review. I also do not think the Indians should expect automatic support for their policies or leaders from the US or any Western power.
    I couldn't agree more with just about everything you said.

    If I were Mr. Modi, I would put it along these lines: Any form of ideological indoctrination that discourages citizens from embracing modern education and incites them into taking law into their won hands and trying to unlawfully enforce/impose rules on an ideological basis will not be tolerated, as are violence acts against all citizens.

    I will just list the abstract of my upcoming scholarship:

    Many militant groups around the world are purportedly fighting to institute sharia as the governing law of Muslims. However, very few scholars have studied the relationship between sharia and violence, presumably because the former is largely viewed as dealing with internal governance issues. This perspective has likely led to the West’s policy of accommodating political and community groups that seek to promote sharia. In this paper, I argue that public surveys in Muslim communities are ill-prepared to identify the potential links between sharia and violence, especially when the majority of poll respondents identify themselves as peace-loving Muslims who perceive sharia as divine law. Moreover, I identify a radicalized subpopulation of jihadist clerics that benefit from sharia’s popularity. Empirical data is presented regarding the growth of clerical power in Pakistan and elsewhere, aided in part by this popularity, which the clerics themselves have helped to nurture. In particular, the analysis suggests that jihadist clerics and militant groups leverage sharia’s esteem in order to advance a violent agenda.

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    BJP to invite Nawaz Sharif and other leaders for oath taking ceremony

    http://www.google.com/gwt/x?source=s...ct=np&whp=3252

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    On taking the Muslim along, I think more than words by Modi, his actions should speak for itself.

    Even as a Chief Minister, he did not make any policy religion specific. It was for all.

    It maybe interesting to note that there are more Muslim policemen in Gujarat than any State in India!

    It is time for Indians to think as being Indians, than live in the old Vote Bank formula that sustained the political parties on issue that divided each other on the basis of religion, caste, community, language etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    If I were Mr. Modi, I would put it along these lines: Any form of ideological indoctrination that discourages citizens from embracing modern education and incites them into taking law into their won hands and trying to unlawfully enforce/impose rules on an ideological basis will not be tolerated, as are violence acts against all citizens.
    The key really is not to let the problem get to this stage, and since it has, understand its ideological basis, and neutralize it at that level. This because the above rhetoric in reality is hardly enforceable, when it has become systemic, like radical Islam has become in India and in many places.

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    How Modi defeated liberals like me

    http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead...?homepage=true
    An interesting commentary that churns the Indian mindset.

    The writer is a known Modi basher.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    If I were Mr. Modi, I would put it along these lines: Any form of ideological indoctrination that discourages citizens from embracing modern education and incites them into taking law into their won hands and trying to unlawfully enforce/impose rules on an ideological basis will not be tolerated, as are violence acts against all citizens.
    Are the freedoms of speech and religion constitutionally guaranteed in India? Efforts to suppress "ideological indoctrination" might run afoul if they are... certainly they would in the US, but India is of course a very different place. While recognizing the impact of indoctrination, I'd be uncomfortable with any effort to treat indoctrination as the equivalent of actual violence if that were proposed in my own neighborhood.

    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    I will just list the abstract of my upcoming scholarship:

    Many militant groups around the world are purportedly fighting to institute sharia as the governing law of Muslims. However, very few scholars have studied the relationship between sharia and violence, presumably because the former is largely viewed as dealing with internal governance issues. This perspective has likely led to the West’s policy of accommodating political and community groups that seek to promote sharia. In this paper, I argue that public surveys in Muslim communities are ill-prepared to identify the potential links between sharia and violence, especially when the majority of poll respondents identify themselves as peace-loving Muslims who perceive sharia as divine law. Moreover, I identify a radicalized subpopulation of jihadist clerics that benefit from sharia’s popularity. Empirical data is presented regarding the growth of clerical power in Pakistan and elsewhere, aided in part by this popularity, which the clerics themselves have helped to nurture. In particular, the analysis suggests that jihadist clerics and militant groups leverage sharia’s esteem in order to advance a violent agenda.
    Interesting, but again difficult to comment without seeing the actual work. Do you intend to publish it?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoorthyM View Post
    The key really is not to let the problem get to this stage, and since it has, understand its ideological basis, and neutralize it at that level.
    The big question, of course, is how does one neutralize the ideological basis?

    It's not an easy thing to do. Generations of effort to neutralize the Communist ideology, ranging from "winning hearts and minds" to mass murder, accomplished very little: the Communist ideology eventually neutralized itself through its own abject failure to deliver on its promises. How does one "neutralize" the Islamist ideology?
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Discussion of Modi and of India in Foreign Affairs:

    http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...5YWhvby5jb20S1

    This one is subscriber only but some here may have access:

    http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...5YWhvby5jb20S1

    Useful mostly as an indication of perceptions among the US foreign policy elite, for whatever that's worth.

    At this point of course all is speculative: Modi will have to develop and implement actual policies toward Pakistan, toward the Muslim minority, and (most important) to deal with economic and other core domestic issues. It will not be possible to evaluate what he's doing until we see what those policies are and how they are being implemented. All of them are complicated and intractable problems.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Default Internal security first please

    By a ret'd Indian intelligence officer:
    It is gratifying that Prime Minister-elect Narendra Modi's first meeting with bureaucrats was with Home Secretary Anil Goswami on 19 May, if press reports are correct. He also met former Intelligence Bureau chief Ajit Doval. This indicates the importance he attaches to internal security despite some "strategic community" fabulists attempting to distract him with foreign issues.

    Our internal security problems need immediate attention. No one has paid any attention to it since 1947 except for setting up some institutions that have not performed. As a result, we have growing communalism, a serious ethnic strife in the Northeast, rising domestic religious insurgency and persisting Leftist militancy, while our preventive security machinery shows its inability to anticipate and deal with such situations.
    Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...odis-attention
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    By a ret'd Indian intelligence officer:

    Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...odis-attention
    Indeed. Any attempt to "Modi"fy Pakistan has to first start with neutering Pakistan-Saudi axis' attempts to create multiple Pakistans within India itself.

    As discussed (and now confirmed in this article) in my book Defeating Political Islam, this Islamization project has blossomed virtually unchecked for several decades now.

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    It is an incorrect and a most condescending remark to state that - The subcontinent also retains the power to screw things up on its own, although when they do somebody somewhere will invariably find a way to blame it on the US. Some things are inevitable.

    Suffice it to say, anyone who has an iota of knowledge of history and is not biased, will observe that whenever the colonial powers quit, they encouraged and then left a legacy for conflicts.

    That apart, the scars left behind by the colonials cannot be wished away pronto by any magic wand. It will take time and in the interim anything can happen and then return to normal. Of course, such events with give grist to gleeful condescensions again.

    There is no question of any country taming any other country. The very notion is a western concept of imposing superiority over others.

    In our parts, it is 'Live and Let Live' as much as possible, till nudged by 'global strategic interests' and that comes not from any specific sector either.

    Let us debate on issues and not on preconceived condescensions.

    Further, so long as there is the concept of 'minorities' and not looking at all as Indians, there can be no progress. Poverty, social inequalities etc are not solely the preserve of the so called minority. It manifests itself on all divisions of society. What has to be done is uplift the economically backward irrespective of religion. Then, and then only, can India progress.

    This minority bogey is a votebank tactics i.e. scare the minority against the majority and vice versa and ensure getting their votes.

    It might interest all that unless the minority (who has got wise to this Votebank manipulation)had not voted for Modi (hardline rightwing to the western folks), there was no shadow of hope that such a huge majority would come Modi's way.

    It is time for less condescensions and replace the same with serious analysis by poring into reports, and then be equipped to enjoy the smell of the coffee.

    In India we say Jago Mohan Pyare.

    If the subcontinent retains the power to screw things up on its own, I guess it is suggested that it is the subcontinent which has screwed Ukraine.

    For strategic interests, every nation screws thing up. It is not the copyright of any country or a region. Therefore, one should look before one leaps.

    In India and Pakistan, we have a saying - Hamam men sab nanga hai.
    Last edited by Ray; 05-26-2014 at 08:32 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A short commentary by IISS's South Asia expert, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and here are two passages:



    Link:https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voice...-campaign-5e65
    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    By a ret'd Indian intelligence officer:

    Link:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...odis-attention
    The strife in the NE is confined to the Bodoland issue with the Muslim minority, the large part having migrated illegally from Bangladesh.

    Illegal immigration remains a grey area

    The 2012 violence was variously described as having begun over the Bodos' destruction of a mosque or an under-construction mosque in Kokrajhar or as having begun after the killing of some BLT men by Muslims. Either way, public perception was largely that the skewed demographics of Assam, owing mainly to the continuing illegal immigration from Bangladesh -- the Bengali-speaking "settlers" are also called "Bangladeshis" -- were at the root of the ethnic violence. The immigration issue is an important factor, with Bodos believing that the Muslim settlers support illegal immigrants who continue to arrive through the riverine areas. There have also been reports of rampant encroachment of state-owned forest land by Muslim encroachers.

    http://www.firstpost.com/india/assam...t-1507865.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    If the subcontinent retains the power to screw things up on its own, I guess it is suggested that it is the subcontinent which has screwed Ukraine.
    I did not suggest that the power to screw things up is in any way exclusive to the subcontinent. It is alive and well all over the world.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    For strategic interests, every nation screws thing up. It is not the copyright of any country or a region. Therefore, one should look before one leaps.
    That's exactly what I meant to suggest when I said the subcontinent has the power to screw things up on its own. That power may or may not be used, but it certainly exists. Being on the cynical side, I generally expect things to be screwed up, and I generally expect that somebody, somewhere (often here at SWC) will find some way to blame the US.

    One cannot downplay or eliminate the colonial legacy, nor can one reasonably attribute all things that go wrong to the colonial legacy.

    The appropriateness of the reference to "taming Pakistan" you'd have to take up with MoorthyM, who included it in the thread header.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 05-26-2014 at 09:31 AM.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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