To honest it is quite sad to see the Russian economy in it's state. In some ways it is worse then I imagined before I looked at the hard facts. For example I would have put the revenue share in the federal budget from commodities at most around 30-40%. A nation, an European nation with such a rich tradition in science and engineering which finances it's state almost like a Gulf country is a tragedy. It makes itself also very vulnerable in any serious economic dispute. Of course after the latest aggression it's neighbours might actually be happy that Putins Russia has big economic weaknesses.
@AmericanPride: I fear we have to disagree again in some areas, just like in the economic discussion
1. Yes Putin and his Russia did gain 'political leverage' by creating military facts on the ground. But at the price of creating great resistance and even hatred within the Ukrainian government and especially it's people. He might actually annex the occupied Crimea, given the current playbook, as bringing the peninsula 'back home' is very popular and might be seen as a longterm achievement. In this case it is also rather likely that the lost 40+ Ukrainians millions for a long time. The international and economic fallout is harder to judge but there will be a price, it is just the question how big it will be.
2. A week ago I would have mostly agreed with the neat (and pretty smart) statement: "To be in this government is to commit political suicide,” he said. “And we need to be very frank and open". But now as an invader has come like a thief in the night this government will have a far easier time to do make reforms, even tough ones, and to get financial and legal aid from abroad.*
The billions from the West, mostly the EU do have strings attached but some of them containe little to none. The IMF has shown himself impressed and the rules of games are obviously not the same as before. The EU has done something very rare, accepting unilateral benifts for the other side. Good to see that he also found the graph I posted over a week ago.
3. I have already posted enough about the economic vulnerability of the Russian economy and it's elite. Of course Putin can go ahead an let his citiziens suffer greatly for his little invasion, his political positions seems secured well enough that he can show strong willpower against the West. The big question is not if the Western powers can inflict rather serious harm on the Russian economy and elite, the question is if they have the political willpower to pay the relative moderate price for doing so.
Slashing subventions important for the majority in such difficult economic times is almost always a massive blunder, but the winter is over and the natural gas comes from the invader so it might be possible. If it is wise is another question.
@AdamG: This might actually have facilitated the latest political decisions by Putin. Perhaps it is not that stupid to keep the door open for the big capital flight from Russia...
@Kaur: I will leave that area to better informed folk, personally I was just suprised by the ratio of suppressed weapons by some non-Russian Russian troops.
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