The Russian economy (catch all)

[OUTLAW 09]

So, outlaw, how does the downward momentum of the Russian economy alter its policy preferences?

AP--in some aspects you read my mind---in theory the "ceasefire" is not "ceasefire" when since 5 Sept there have been over 1340 shellings and ground attacks.

There was some Russian troop movement out of the Ukraine but it now appears that it was a typical Russian Army rotational shifting of troops and equipment.

Putin then "disappears" for his 62th birthday and there is silence from him--BUT then look a one day before he disappears--Russian military units started moving back into the Ukraine including equipment never seen outside of Russia.

So one can now speak of an escalation instead of a de-escalation ---which is the reason for the strong German comments yesterday and French comments directed towards Putin today.

Now to your question--in a "death race" the core question becomes---can I win victory and or my defined end state before my economy collapses around my ears and my own population starts to suffer?

The sectorial sanctions were designed to hit the oligarchs not the Russian population---that was the core western mistake---actually Putin has done more to hit his own people than the west did.

Today the price of oil broke through the 85 marker and now the bottom will tank at around 68-70.

Oil: $84.81
pic.twitter.com/LMxnPdt0AH

Personally after watching him for years starting in Dresden he will go all in for the land corridor and the full territory of New Russia as that is the "victory" he himself defined for the Russian population six months ago---that was what he defined in his Duma speech as well.

See AP even with all the fighting in the Donbas and all the destruction and now the resurgence of the mercenaries and his high Russian troop loses--he still has not "won a single thing" ie the Ukraine has signed the EU agreements, the RADA is voting on revoking the non alignment law and NATO is nudging closer to him inside the Ukraine and here is talk hat he Ukraine will leave the CIS shortly.

That explains some of the new Russian military equipment moving into the Ukraine especially the new artillery guidance radar for high precision artillery strikes against moving tanks.

There have been three bridgeheads built up by Russian troops and the manpower in them as reached the standard Russian attack ratios they seek when they overwhelm enemy forces--using their standard rolling attack formations.

Now if you would have understood the "suckered in" comments you would have seen a corresponding redeploying of Ukrainian troops and equipment opposite those bridgeheads. Remember I did say Ukrainians do understand the Russia mindset.

By the way the US comments on potential US lethal aid to the UA hit a major Russian nerve yesterday---and they commented aggressively again today "they can prove the aid is in fact in the country now along with trainers".

This in fact might be true as a heavy anti tank ability would in fact negate the heavy Russian use of tanks making the fight a tad more equal.