The Russian economy (catch all)

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan--you need more actual physical interaction on a daily basis with Russian politicians and military and you then would understand that yes in fact he has established an authoritarian rule quasi a dictatorship actually more like the head of multinational corporation as Russia is made up of 4 distinct ruling elites.

Yes, we all know this; it's become pretty much conventional wisdom. The question is how you reconcile the assumption of quasi dictatorship with your observation that "Putin is struggling to get reelected". Dictators don't generally struggle to get reelected, because they control the electoral system: that's what makes them dictators. They do worry about the populace rising against them, but that's a different problem. If Putin is indeed, as you say, "struggling to get reelected", it brings the whole assumption of quasi dictatorship into question.

[JMA]

Dictators don't generally struggle to get reelected, because they control the electoral system: that's what makes them dictators. They do worry about the populace rising against them, but that's a different problem.

You seem a bit confused... again.

Your final sentence counters the premise in your first sentence as applied to Russia.

Arguing for the sake of arguing is pretty ridiculous don't you think?

[Dayuhan]

Your final sentence counters the premise in your first sentence as applied to Russia.

Not at all. A leader that has to struggle to get reelected generally doesn't have to worry about the populace taking to the streets: why would the populace bother going to the streets if they can just vote the bastard out?

Struggling to get reelected is the problem of elected leaders. The prospect of the populace in the streets is the problem of dictators. Dictators, by definition, don't struggle to get reelected. They dictate the results of the election, if they bother to have an election at all.

I simply asked Outlaw to clarify what appears to be an inconsistency.

[JMA]

Nah...

You getting yourself in a tangle here.

As long as there is the near certainty of the populace taking to the streets which could get ugly Putin needs to be careful just how much he can 'fiddle' the election.

You tried to be smart in a reply to Outlook, you got it wrong.

Not at all. A leader that has to struggle to get reelected generally doesn't have to worry about the populace taking to the streets: why would the populace bother going to the streets if they can just vote the bastard out?

Struggling to get reelected is the problem of elected leaders. The prospect of the populace in the streets is the problem of dictators. Dictators, by definition, don't struggle to get reelected. They dictate the results of the election, if they bother to have an election at all.

I simply asked Outlaw to clarify what appears to be an inconsistency.

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, we all know this; it's become pretty much conventional wisdom. The question is how you reconcile the assumption of quasi dictatorship with your observation that "Putin is struggling to get reelected". Dictators don't generally struggle to get reelected, because they control the electoral system: that's what makes them dictators. They do worry about the populace rising against them, but that's a different problem. If Putin is indeed, as you say, "struggling to get reelected", it brings the whole assumption of quasi dictatorship into question.

And again Dayuhan you simply do not understand the beast you are commenting on---and you failed to mention my attempts to show you how "legality" plays a big role in Russian elections.

You really do have to spend some time in the former Soviet Union and then you will understand. Russia is offering some really good cheap Crimea beach vacations--- but wait the cheap Aeroflot daughter airlines cannot fly there anymore as they were grounded by the sanctions so that is out as a suggested place to visit.

[Firn]

I think we should focus here on the economic aspects to be able to have a more fruitful discussion.

European Banks Battle to Keep Russian Clients Amid Sanction Lending Freeze

Bank Austria, the central and eastern Europe [CEE] arm of Italian bank UniCredit, said this week it expects to keep making solid profits in Russia.

"It is a compliance complexity for sure, a very significant effort, but I think it is our approach and culture that any requirement from the sanctions we respect to the extreme detail," said Chief Financial Officer Francesco Giordano.

Bankers working on a syndicated loan of up to $900 million for Russian steel company Evraz — led by Dutch bank ING and Germany's Deutsche Bank — say they hope it will be signed as soon as this week, though they will have jumped through many hoops to get it over the line.

"I think the deal will get done, but it is more difficult at the moment. People are asking a lot of questions around the new sanctions," one banker told Thomson Reuters Loan Pricing Corp, or LPC.

As usual it is important to point out that the sanctions itself have a rather gradual impact in many areas instead of being a on/off switch. This deal might well go through but it is hard to imagine that the conditions for the Russian company are the same as before. I would be very surprised if they will have to cencede a risk premium. Other deals will fall through all those events will contribute to weaken the Russian economy.

Demonstrating this uncertainty, Russia's syndicated debt market, worth $47.2 billion last year, has dried up since hostilities broke out over the Ukraine. Just two corporate loans have been signed since March — a $1.15 billion pre-export loan for Russian iron ore company Metalloinvest and a $450 million unsecured loan for potash producer Uralkali.

Btw the same goes of course for trade triangles which might involve Belorussia or other countries. Even if they operate successfully there will be welfare losses in the West and Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

firn---seems like now Russia wants to forego membership in the WTO.

Seems like they have realized that if they complain about something to the WTO they could themselves end up being penalized.

Since the sanctions hit their first response was we will go to the WTO---think they have found out that it is not that easy and I think they were shocked by the Yukos court decision of 50B USD.

It is really as if they do not understand globalization of economic systems---they have had way to much state owned economics and cannot seem to make the shift to a globalized world.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/1...to-membership/