The Russian economy (catch all)

[Firn]

I think we should focus here on the economic aspects to be able to have a more fruitful discussion.

European Banks Battle to Keep Russian Clients Amid Sanction Lending Freeze

Bank Austria, the central and eastern Europe [CEE] arm of Italian bank UniCredit, said this week it expects to keep making solid profits in Russia.

"It is a compliance complexity for sure, a very significant effort, but I think it is our approach and culture that any requirement from the sanctions we respect to the extreme detail," said Chief Financial Officer Francesco Giordano.

Bankers working on a syndicated loan of up to $900 million for Russian steel company Evraz — led by Dutch bank ING and Germany's Deutsche Bank — say they hope it will be signed as soon as this week, though they will have jumped through many hoops to get it over the line.

"I think the deal will get done, but it is more difficult at the moment. People are asking a lot of questions around the new sanctions," one banker told Thomson Reuters Loan Pricing Corp, or LPC.

As usual it is important to point out that the sanctions itself have a rather gradual impact in many areas instead of being a on/off switch. This deal might well go through but it is hard to imagine that the conditions for the Russian company are the same as before. I would be very surprised if they will have to cencede a risk premium. Other deals will fall through all those events will contribute to weaken the Russian economy.

Demonstrating this uncertainty, Russia's syndicated debt market, worth $47.2 billion last year, has dried up since hostilities broke out over the Ukraine. Just two corporate loans have been signed since March — a $1.15 billion pre-export loan for Russian iron ore company Metalloinvest and a $450 million unsecured loan for potash producer Uralkali.

Btw the same goes of course for trade triangles which might involve Belorussia or other countries. Even if they operate successfully there will be welfare losses in the West and Russia.

[OUTLAW 09]

firn---seems like now Russia wants to forego membership in the WTO.

Seems like they have realized that if they complain about something to the WTO they could themselves end up being penalized.

Since the sanctions hit their first response was we will go to the WTO---think they have found out that it is not that easy and I think they were shocked by the Yukos court decision of 50B USD.

It is really as if they do not understand globalization of economic systems---they have had way to much state owned economics and cannot seem to make the shift to a globalized world.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/1...to-membership/