The Russian economy (catch all)

[JMA]

Your election idea is nonsense... but do tell why you believe the US Administration has taken such a wimpish position over the Russian actions in Ukraine?

The official U.S. position (as stated to the public) is the complete withdrawl of Russian forces from Ukraine, the cessation of Russian support for separatists, and the return of Crimea to Ukraine. I think the first one is realistic, the second one achievable, and the third one out of reach.

Nope. And I haven't stated my support of economic sanctions anywhere in this thread. In fact - I've been pretty clear in multiple statements that sanctions are generally ineffective.

My idea was and remains the implementation of inclusive, internationally monitored elections in Ukraine. That brings in the moderates and isolates the radicals. Crimea should be returned to Ukraine, but that's a matter of principle, not material advantage, and it's not central to resolving Ukraine's economic crisis (the problem driving this conflict in the first place). And some arrangement should be conceived that brings Ukraine and Russia more closely integrated with the EU/West (you know, 'keep your friends close, your enemies closer' kind of thing...).

[JMA]

The idea of elections is merely a wimpish attempt to avoid taking the right measure of economic and other action to bring Russia to heel.

Anything but a confrontation with Russia, right?

[AmericanPride]

The idea of elections is merely a wimpish attempt to avoid taking the right measure of economic and other action to bring Russia to heel.

What does the "right measure of economic and other action" mean?

Anything but a confrontation with Russia, right?

States don't maintain their power by exhausting their strength on battles with (near) peer competitors or lost causes. I'm perfectly content with writing off Crimea if that preserves U.S. interests elsewhere. Until there's a way around Russia's nuclear arsenal, large standing army, and political position in institutions like the U.N., negotiating with Russia is a fact of life.

[JMA]

What does the "right measure of economic and other action" mean?

I quote you:

The official U.S. position (as stated to the public) is the complete withdrawl of Russian forces from Ukraine, the cessation of Russian support for separatists, and the return of Crimea to Ukraine.

To this I would add the extraction of war reparations that would make the Russian's eyes water... together with other good stuff.

OK, so we basically agree... the crunch is that how the US is progressing - albeit with a very reluctant EU (especially Germany) - is not going to achieve that aim ever or anytime soon... or do you think otherwise?

[Dayuhan]

To this I would add the extraction of war reparations that would make the Russian's eyes water... together with other good stuff.

Is there any way to do this short of fighting a war with Russia? If not, why even bother discussing it?

the crunch is that how the US is progressing - albeit with a very reluctant EU (especially Germany) - is not going to achieve that aim ever or anytime soon... or do you think otherwise?

If you look at the three nominal goals:

Complete withdrawl of Russian forces from Ukraine

Probably achievable, if the separatists can be forced into an untenable position without providing the Russians with an opportunity to intervene directly. As I've said elsewhere, this could be achieved by offering a settlement at a suitable point, aimed at depriving the Russians of the pretext for an intervention in the guise of "peacekeeping".

the cessation of Russian support for separatists

If a settlement can be achieved with the separatists, the Russian support will eventually cease. If the Ukrainians insist on a complete military victory, I think the Russians will probably intervene, not because they really want to but because they're afraid of being accused of betrayal by their own nationalists. A face-saving exit point could save a lot of mess.

the return of Crimea to Ukraine.

Realistically, not achievable without incurring costs that vastly exceed any possible benefit.

Any discussion of courses of action has to be reality-based... there's just no point in chest-thumping bluster.

Existing policy is neither a success nor a failure. Putin has not done in the east as he did in Crinea, He has not pulled an open invasion and tried to link up with the breakaway Russian enclave in Moldova. His proxies in the east are not winning. He got his way in Crimea, he's not getting it in the east. Mixed results for both sides. The extent to which Putin's failure in the east is a consequence of the gradually escalating sanctions is not possible to know at this point.

If either party adopts the position that nothing short of total victory is acceptable there will probably be a major war, which wouldn't be good for anybody.

As always, criticism of existing policy would be far more credible if accompanied by some indication of what realistically possible policies might have achieved better results (in the opinion of the critic, of course).

[mirhond]

This seems a strange and self-defeating move, if true, simply because it hurts a lot more people in Russia than outside of it. The last thing most governments would want to sanction is their own imports of cheap food. People will overlook many things in the grip of nationalism, but the stomach is pretty close to home.

https://ph.news.yahoo.com/russia-ban...231321612.html

Poor Moscow hipsters, they will surely die without Spanish hamon and French butter
I've just checked my frige and found Latvian cheese, Spanish fish and Polish apples - well, I can handle without it, that's for sure.
Now, getting serious, all imported foodstuff isn't cheap, it's just slightly better than Russian/CU - I can't imagine I'd starve without it.

[AmericanPride]

To this I would add the extraction of war reparations that would make the Russian's eyes water... together with other good stuff.

Can you be more specific?

OK, so we basically agree... the crunch is that how the US is progressing - albeit with a very reluctant EU (especially Germany) - is not going to achieve that aim ever or anytime soon... or do you think otherwise?

Agreed. Since the Russian seizure of Crimea, I've been consistent in my belief that the U.S. is not well-positioned to counter Russian intervention. I don't think sanctions will produce the desired outcome of reversing Russian gains. But I do think Russian gains can be minimized.

[AmericanPride]

Some thoughts on Putin's calculations from Joshua Yaffa at Foreign Affairs:

To Putin, sovereignty constitutes the essence of power. “Putin’s motivating idea is that Russia’s influence is preordained,” said Sergey Utkin, the head of the Department of Strategic Assessment, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “It’s a genuine conviction, a call, a challenge that must be answered in the country’s policies.” Were Putin to back down over Ukraine, even after the attack on MH17, it would mean not just losing face but also turning his back on what he sees as Russia’s historic birthright. It is worth remembering that under the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, Moscow never embraced the prospect of a so-called reset of U.S.-Russian relations; it simply regarded Washington’s conciliatory pose as a long-overdue adjustment. The impulse to avenge past geopolitical humiliations has intensified in Putin’s current presidential term. And now, the crisis in Ukraine has elevated its champions. For the country’s hodgepodge of hard-liners and nationalists, Utkin said, “confrontation is a plus,” in that it “allows the acquisition of ever more sovereignty.”

U.S. and EU sanctions will likely cause Russia’s GDP growth rate, which was already declining before the Ukraine crisis, to fall even more precipitously. But the latest sanctions do not block Russia’s oil and gas exports, which account for around half of the Kremlin’s budget. Those revenues will continue to flow into state coffers and from there into the pockets of the large contingent of Russians whose livelihoods depend on the government. (About 20 percent of Russians are pensioners, 20 percent work for the state, and 15 percent work for state-owned companies.) And so the sanctions will put little pressure on wages, which are central to political stability. As Vladislav Inozemtsev, an economist and the director of the Centre for Post-Industrial Studies, put it, “Sanctions will take a hit on growth, but they can’t keep Putin from raising salaries of bureaucrats and FSB officers.”