The German FAZ, Bloomberg (which also has a short historical overview with links) and the Sole 24 ore offer views from different countries. The strategy seems to be clear, with harsher ones possible, but for now the execution and the moral impact will matter.
After the last months it is still true that the balance sheet of Russia looks fairly strong but it's economic prospects increasingly grim. Russia is already paying a considerable price for Putin's war and now we have for the first time sanctions which show intent to harm the economy.
Personally I think that Russia is already in a recession but we will only find out once the adjusted figures come out.Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, speaking to reporters today in Riverdale, Iowa, said U.S. sanctions are designed to maximize the economic pain on Russia while minimizing the effects elsewhere.
“If we are doing the sanctions effectively and smartly, we will put an enormous amount of pressure on Russia, and we shouldn’t see terribly negative economic impacts here in the United States,” Lew said. “Russia is barely growing now. With these increased sanctions, it’s going to grind Russia into either a flat or a negative economy.”
The sanctions felt the earliest will likely be those bans on the bond market, unless the Russian Central Bank or the Kremlin react quickly and strongly.
Orysia Lutsevych, research fellow at Chatham House in short Bloomberg video. She makes the point I raised earlier, some sanctions will work in the long term like those technology bans in the oil sector.European Union and U.S. sanctions jeopardize funding for Russian companies, which have tapped international capital markets for more than $600 billion in debt and equity since the country emerged from its 1998 default.
Russian businesses have about $165 billion in U.S. and European bonds and more than $100 billion in offshore syndicated loans currently outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Whether banks based in China, which remains friendly with President Vladimir Putin’s regime, can replace that lending remains to be seen.
The sanctions against Russia “will likely force a further contraction in domestic credit growth and hence the economy,” said Alexander Moseley, senior portfolio manager in New York with Schroders Plc, which oversees $100 billion in fixed-income assets. “Asian debt and equity markets are probably not able to substitute entirely for curbed access to the dollar and euro markets.”
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