The Russian economy (catch all)

[Bill Moore]

The Colder War
How the Global Energy Trade Slipped
from America's Grasp

http://www.colderwar.com/book#about

The Colder War provides a reversing contrast from the hysterical "Putin is Stalin, Jr., restart the Cold War" message emanating from the neocon think tanks and the mainstream media. Marin Katusa shows the real threat to the American people... ” Dr. Ron Paul (Congressman)

Vladimir Putin is stripping America of its superpower status. And he's not using bombs or tanks to do it!

Instead, he's orchestrating an ingenious yet devastating, decades-long plan to control the global energy trade—the largest source of demand for the dollar and bedrock of American might and prosperity.

Putin’s consolidated and nationalized the Russian energy industry. Natural gas, oil, and uranium are all controlled by the state and overseen by an ultra loyal group of Putin’s childhood chums. These enterprises have never been more profitable or powerful.

As a result, Europe is now reliant on Russian natural gas and oil—a third of its fuel needs come through Putin’s pipelines. He can bend the EU to his will simply by twisting the valve shut. No need for military intervention. Crimea and the eastern Ukraine are his.

Putin’s next target? The US.

He cut a landmark deal to build pipelines and sell natural gas to China for the next 30 years. This fills Russia’s coffers, but more important, not a dime will transacted in US dollars. This is a direct threat to the current petrodollar system, in which the majority of the energy trade is priced in US dollars and sold in dollars.

Along with China, Putin delivered another crushing blow to the US dollar with the New Development Bank, which will make large strategic investments in developing nations in Africa, Latin America, and Asia through a non-dollar international payment clearing system.

The advertisement is a bit dramatic, but a few valid economists are recommending the book. Furthermore, the links tab is worth looking at.

[kaur]

FT posted couple days ago this interesting article.

October 29, 2014
Russian oil: Between a rock and a hard place

It has the largest reserves of shale oil in the world but as sanctions bite, can Moscow exploit them?

...

And even where Russian suppliers can replace western equipment, the quality is likely to be lower. “The Russian oil services industry is in a bad shape, it always was,” says Mr Lebedev. “It’s like having an old Russian Lada instead of a Mercedes.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/fc354...#axzz3Hup9oD9w

[mirhond]

An exclusive video from a net convenient store P'aterochka, made by me:
Russia is "starving" after food ban

(May be it's time to start a thead "Debunking common nonsence and outlandish bull$it about Russia's everyday life" here)

http://youtu.be/VvcIHnngT2g

ps. bonus video - I was stuck in an elevator just after a visit to the aformentioned store

http://youtu.be/1eXPafC5e6o

[kaur]

Dear mirhond, I'm glad that you are doing well. You don't have to suffer beacause of comrades from Piter.

I can see there products from traditional Russian firms Valio, Danone, PepsiCo etc.
For example http://images.myshared.ru/414669/slide_2.jpg
http://article.unipack.ru/40533/

PS nice new avatar. Why Jesus is carrying Barrett?

[Bill Moore]

A lot less spin, and some facts (backed up by other agencies).

Bottom line is that Russia is still messed up compared to Western states, but most of their economic and social trends are positive. Trends that may reduce their recent international aggression tendencies, but then again increased wealth will probably increase them, just as increased wealth made the West more aggressive.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadom...-about-russia/

[Firn]

A lot less spin, and some facts (backed up by other agencies).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadom...-about-russia/

I'm a bit curious what do you mean by a lot less spin - compared to which articles and sources? I actually largely agree with all his points* apart from 'myth' 2 but one should really put it that way:

Basically, what these graphs show is that:

1) Russia still has a lot of problems, and it remains extremely troubled in comparison to developed Western countries, and

2) things in Russia have actually improved at a reasonable clip.

Mr. Adomanis knows quite well that past performance , even in indicators with considerable momentum, is different from the present or the future one and should have put that knowledge also in his summary. Most of this thread has been about the current state and near to mid-term future of the Russian economy and not about it's past...

*He should have been more precise, actually like in earlier post of his, especially about immigration in the context of demograhics on which economic performance has of course an important impact.

[Firn]

Someone raised the positive aspects of devaluation. Of course there are undeniable upsides to the 'Ruble Rout' experienced this year, despite the painful and costly steps undertaken by the Russian Central Bank to stop or at least slow it down like pushing your key rate roughly 9% up above your main trade partner and burning dozens of billions of hard currency comes clearly. Now I'm not quite sure if the RCB does this for fun but after taking into account the various facts one might think of the remote possiblity that the wise guys there think that such a stark and rapid loss of valuation isn't the ideal outcome for the Russian economy.

The big problem with the boost to the Russian industry can be summed up in a single provocative question: What Russian industry?



Now Russia does have of course an industry, but one which can clearly only replace imports to a certain small degree in the short run and a somewhat bigger degree in the long run. Things like smartphones made in China won't get suddendly produced in Russian plants. When it comes to exports it is difficult to see much of a boost given the small slice of exports which the lower ruble will make more competitive.

Needless to add that with the high rates and high inflation act as additional gravity to Russian investment, beside the usual, well-known factors as corruption, little rule of law, etc.


P.S: I have no idea what the oil price will do in next years. The decline of oil has contribuited to the ruble's rout and higher oil prices would help the RCB a lot to stem the tide.