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Thread: The Russian economy (catch all)

  1. #361
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    firn---seems Putin has not quite figured out that the Chinese see Russia is only a raw resources supplier nothing more nothing less.

    #China snubs #Russia (and #Gazprom) again. #Putin better get used to it: http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=56936 … via @EuromaidanPress
    pic.twitter.com/VlpBsld1CI

  2. #362
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    It simply gets bad and from bad to worse--not sure what comes after a financial disaster as a term.

    Man the Russian CB is attempting everything including selling the Czars personal china dinner set.

    From Interfax this evening Moscow time:

    20:01 Dollar, euro hit historic maximums on Thursday

    19:59 Central Bank could offer up to 150 bln rubles in 18-month loans backed by non-market assets on Nov 10 (Part 2)

    19:53 Russian stock market down Thursday as RTS index hits five-year low due to ruble's depreciation

  3. #363
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Stepping back it is important to look again at the link between the economy and public support for the leadership. According to the Moscow Times most Russians think western sanctions will Boost nation's economy, an opinion which is quite difficult to square with reality even if (or especially because) it gets pushed by the state-controlled media.

    Putin seems indeed immune to the economic troubles, so far at least. I share the minority opinion within Russia it seems:



    That makes it especially dangerous for the simple Russian citizien, which might only wake up and react politically until very deep damage has been already inflicted.
    firn---there has been little mentioned in western media about the Gazprom method of pricing and not delivering the agreed to amounts as per contract---called under pumping but still demanding payment for the agreed to contractual amount.

    That is at the heart of the Ukrainian and Russia dispute as much as Russia does not want to talk about it---they were bitterly against the Ukraine going to court to have the contracts reviewed. If the court rules against Russia then the entire EU can challenge their delivery contracts and it plays deeply into the EUs Cartel Office investigation of Gazprom. This by the way is a deep Putin dislike of the EU--they have regulations that go counter to state owned and run Russian businesses.

    #Ukraine lodges case w/ Stockholm tribunal ov #Russian gas transit:
    $5 bil for under-pump
    introduce EU transit formula in-out
    RUS tech gas
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 10-16-2014 at 07:34 PM.

  4. #364
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    According to the Moscow Times most Russians think western sanctions will Boost nation's economy[/URL], an opinion which is quite difficult to square with reality even if (or especially because) it gets pushed by the state-controlled media.

    That makes it especially dangerous for the simple Russian citizien, which might only wake up and react politically until very deep damage has been already inflicted.
    Should I explain you the basics of economy and trade? Do you realise that weak currency and ban on imports make imports unprofitable and therefore create an opportunity for our manufacturers? Allmost the same happened in 1998 after default and skyrocketing rate of exchange - even the basic imported staples vanished from shops and then have been replaced by Rusian ones.

    I am the proverbious simple Russian citizen - pleace explain me what deep damage I have to scare $hitless?
    Last edited by mirhond; 10-17-2014 at 05:20 PM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  5. #365
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    By the way mirhond---was not Russia to assist in the implementation of Minsk 1 and 2---at least that is what your own Russian media, the Russian FM and Putin has repeatedly stated since 5 Sept 2014.

    Had not representatives of Russia signed the Minsk agreements/ ---just as they did for the Budapest Memorandum---right?

    THEN why was this necessary via Interfax yesterday?

    21:13

    Putin: Russia ready to mediate in separating conflicting parties in eastern Ukraine

    SO comrade mirhond---just what did Putin agree to in Minsk 1 and 2---?

    ALL lies and smokescreens coming from Putin and the Russian government.

  6. #366
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    mirhond--a checklist for you in order that you can recognize if Russia is now a "fascist" state.

    Seems that it is if you use this checklist.

    https://twitter.com/Leefellerguy/sta...154945/photo/1

  7. #367
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Same store, same shelves after two months of food ban.
    Apocaliptic visions of starving Russia shared by some users here seem to be... visions. ^_^







    Last edited by mirhond; 10-28-2014 at 08:07 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  8. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Same store, same shelves after two months of food ban.
    Apocaliptic visions of starving Russia shared by some users here seem to be... visions. ^_^


    come on comrade mirhond---you have got to be kidding me---those photos are all over two months old and you display nothing newer than two months and yet you make your comparison statement--nothing but blatant lies again.

    These photos were geo tagged and dated when they first were posted by you two months ago---did you not think people could/would not compare them?

    BY the way--how is the Ruble doing today?--hope you were not planning a trip any time soon to Paris.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 10-28-2014 at 12:49 PM. Reason: Fix quote

  9. #369
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    wow mirhond--great Russian economy you have there---it is like 1998 all over again.


    1. oil to drop to 60 USD per barrel

    2. Russian economy will not grow at all in 2015

    3. Russian economy in recession by end of 2014

    4. Russian stock market in chaos---about to become junk status on a lower credit ranking

    5. and the mighty Russian Rubel---literally in free fall against the USD/Euro

    Centrbank Russia spent $5,18 bln to help Rubble in 2 days
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2014/28-october-centrbank-russia-spent-$518-bln-to-help-rubble …
    pic.twitter.com/IE0fhkQ5wn


    your CB has spent over 15B USD to stop the fall and yet it just keeps on "falling".

  10. #370
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Should I explain you the basics of economy and trade? Do you realise that weak currency and ban on imports make imports unprofitable and therefore create an opportunity for our manufacturers? Allmost the same happened in 1998 after default and skyrocketing rate of exchange - even the basic imported staples vanished from shops and then have been replaced by Rusian ones.

    I am the proverbious simple Russian citizen - pleace explain me what deep damage I have to scare $hitless?
    mirhond--hope you are not travelling anytime soon to Paris and need USDs.

    your own central bank raised interest rates to 9.5% to "save your Rubel" and what happen after two minutes it hit the lowest level since 1998.

    From Interfax yesterday

    19:28 Ruble posts heavy losses against dollar, euro

    Ruble’s Two-Minute Rally Shows Russia Guessed Wrong.
    http://bloom.bg/1s10iC5
    via @BloombergNews

  11. #371
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    Default Russia's Economic Warfare?

    The Colder War
    How the Global Energy Trade Slipped
    from America's Grasp

    http://www.colderwar.com/book#about

    The Colder War provides a reversing contrast from the hysterical "Putin is Stalin, Jr., restart the Cold War" message emanating from the neocon think tanks and the mainstream media. Marin Katusa shows the real threat to the American people... ” Dr. Ron Paul (Congressman)
    Vladimir Putin is stripping America of its superpower status. And he's not using bombs or tanks to do it!

    Instead, he's orchestrating an ingenious yet devastating, decades-long plan to control the global energy trade—the largest source of demand for the dollar and bedrock of American might and prosperity.
    Putin’s consolidated and nationalized the Russian energy industry. Natural gas, oil, and uranium are all controlled by the state and overseen by an ultra loyal group of Putin’s childhood chums. These enterprises have never been more profitable or powerful.

    As a result, Europe is now reliant on Russian natural gas and oil—a third of its fuel needs come through Putin’s pipelines. He can bend the EU to his will simply by twisting the valve shut. No need for military intervention. Crimea and the eastern Ukraine are his.

    Putin’s next target? The US.

    He cut a landmark deal to build pipelines and sell natural gas to China for the next 30 years. This fills Russia’s coffers, but more important, not a dime will transacted in US dollars. This is a direct threat to the current petrodollar system, in which the majority of the energy trade is priced in US dollars and sold in dollars.

    Along with China, Putin delivered another crushing blow to the US dollar with the New Development Bank, which will make large strategic investments in developing nations in Africa, Latin America, and Asia through a non-dollar international payment clearing system.
    The advertisement is a bit dramatic, but a few valid economists are recommending the book. Furthermore, the links tab is worth looking at.
    Last edited by Bill Moore; 11-02-2014 at 12:48 PM.

  12. #372
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    FT posted couple days ago this interesting article.

    October 29, 2014
    Russian oil: Between a rock and a hard place
    It has the largest reserves of shale oil in the world but as sanctions bite, can Moscow exploit them?

    ...

    And even where Russian suppliers can replace western equipment, the quality is likely to be lower. “The Russian oil services industry is in a bad shape, it always was,” says Mr Lebedev. “It’s like having an old Russian Lada instead of a Mercedes.”
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/fc354...#axzz3Hup9oD9w

  13. #373
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    An exclusive video from a net convenient store P'aterochka, made by me:
    Russia is "starving" after food ban

    (May be it's time to start a thead "Debunking common nonsence and outlandish bull$it about Russia's everyday life" here)

    http://youtu.be/VvcIHnngT2g

    ps. bonus video - I was stuck in an elevator just after a visit to the aformentioned store

    http://youtu.be/1eXPafC5e6o
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  14. #374
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    Dear mirhond, I'm glad that you are doing well. You don't have to suffer beacause of comrades from Piter.

    I can see there products from traditional Russian firms Valio, Danone, PepsiCo etc.
    For example http://images.myshared.ru/414669/slide_2.jpg
    http://article.unipack.ru/40533/

    PS nice new avatar. Why Jesus is carrying Barrett?
    Last edited by kaur; 11-02-2014 at 03:19 PM.

  15. #375
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    A lot less spin, and some facts (backed up by other agencies).

    Bottom line is that Russia is still messed up compared to Western states, but most of their economic and social trends are positive. Trends that may reduce their recent international aggression tendencies, but then again increased wealth will probably increase them, just as increased wealth made the West more aggressive.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadom...-about-russia/

  16. #376
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    A lot less spin, and some facts (backed up by other agencies).

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadom...-about-russia/
    I'm a bit curious what do you mean by a lot less spin - compared to which articles and sources? I actually largely agree with all his points* apart from 'myth' 2 but one should really put it that way:

    Basically, what these graphs show is that:

    1) Russia still has a lot of problems, and it remains extremely troubled in comparison to developed Western countries, and

    2) things in Russia have actually improved at a reasonable clip.
    Mr. Adomanis knows quite well that past performance , even in indicators with considerable momentum, is different from the present or the future one and should have put that knowledge also in his summary. Most of this thread has been about the current state and near to mid-term future of the Russian economy and not about it's past...

    *He should have been more precise, actually like in earlier post of his, especially about immigration in the context of demograhics on which economic performance has of course an important impact.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-02-2014 at 04:30 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  17. #377
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Someone raised the positive aspects of devaluation. Of course there are undeniable upsides to the 'Ruble Rout' experienced this year, despite the painful and costly steps undertaken by the Russian Central Bank to stop or at least slow it down like pushing your key rate roughly 9% up above your main trade partner and burning dozens of billions of hard currency comes clearly. Now I'm not quite sure if the RCB does this for fun but after taking into account the various facts one might think of the remote possiblity that the wise guys there think that such a stark and rapid loss of valuation isn't the ideal outcome for the Russian economy.

    The big problem with the boost to the Russian industry can be summed up in a single provocative question: What Russian industry?



    Now Russia does have of course an industry, but one which can clearly only replace imports to a certain small degree in the short run and a somewhat bigger degree in the long run. Things like smartphones made in China won't get suddendly produced in Russian plants. When it comes to exports it is difficult to see much of a boost given the small slice of exports which the lower ruble will make more competitive.

    Needless to add that with the high rates and high inflation act as additional gravity to Russian investment, beside the usual, well-known factors as corruption, little rule of law, etc.


    P.S: I have no idea what the oil price will do in next years. The decline of oil has contribuited to the ruble's rout and higher oil prices would help the RCB a lot to stem the tide.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-02-2014 at 05:23 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  18. #378
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    Firn,

    As a watcher of the Russian economy, what do their imports look like?

    In particular whether grain is still imported in bulk. I have a vague recollection it is now that grain is shipped from Canada & USA to Russia via various ports. Awhile whilst in Montana, USA it was quite clear trade was good and the grain trains rumbled past every day towards Seattle / NW Pacific ports.
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Firn,

    As a watcher of the Russian economy, what do their imports look like?

    In particular whether grain is still imported in bulk. I have a vague recollection it is now that grain is shipped from Canada & USA to Russia via various ports. Awhile whilst in Montana, USA it was quite clear trade was good and the grain trains rumbled past every day towards Seattle / NW Pacific ports.
    According to the German FAZ, Russia imported food for 43 billion USD in 2013, of these 16 billion USD were paid for EU products.

    Around 30-50% of fish, beef and vegetables are imported, in addtion diary products. The domestic agricultural industry is still not able to provide sufficient amounts, hence, redcution of imports will very likely lead to higher inflation, which is already around 8%.

    However, according to various sources Russia was a net-exporter of grain 2013, the harvest in 2014 seems to be very good, therefore, no change expected.

  20. #380
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Someone raised the positive aspects of devaluation. Of course there are undeniable upsides to the 'Ruble Rout' experienced this year, despite the painful and costly steps undertaken by the Russian Central Bank to stop or at least slow it down like pushing your key rate roughly 9% up above your main trade partner and burning dozens of billions of hard currency comes clearly. Now I'm not quite sure if the RCB does this for fun but after taking into account the various facts one might think of the remote possiblity that the wise guys there think that such a stark and rapid loss of valuation isn't the ideal outcome for the Russian economy.

    The big problem with the boost to the Russian industry can be summed up in a single provocative question: What Russian industry?



    Now Russia does have of course an industry, but one which can clearly only replace imports to a certain small degree in the short run and a somewhat bigger degree in the long run. Things like smartphones made in China won't get suddendly produced in Russian plants. When it comes to exports it is difficult to see much of a boost given the small slice of exports which the lower ruble will make more competitive.

    Needless to add that with the high rates and high inflation act as additional gravity to Russian investment, beside the usual, well-known factors as corruption, little rule of law, etc.


    P.S: I have no idea what the oil price will do in next years. The decline of oil has contribuited to the ruble's rout and higher oil prices would help the RCB a lot to stem the tide.
    In general Russia is a raw resources exporting country much as the rest of the 3rd world raw resource exporters---after that there is little to no actual product lines that earn them massive income on.

    The Chinese deals are sweet heart deals for the Chinese but end up not really earning much for say Gazprom because the Chinese set the gas costs not Gazprom. the Chinese are using Russia just as they do Uganda---cheap raw resources.

    Part of the problem with their dislike of the EU Ukrainian agreements is the simple fact that millions of dollars of current exports to the Ukraine will not be allowed into the EU free trade zone simply because they could not pass the safety and food standards that the EU even demands for say Romania and or Slovakia.

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