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Thread: The Russian economy (catch all)

  1. #221
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    Default A reminder from a Moderator

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  2. #222
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyxilis View Post
    And that's incorrect on your statement it affects chicken which is considered a basic staple. All fishing products from shrimp, tuna, crab, and lobster. Tuna at least is pretty common on shelves in supermarkets. It affects fruits such as apples from Poland. It affects vegetables which are once again big imports from eastern europe.

    I suppose you think the russian side of the embargo only includes fine cheeses from France? Well that would be incorrect. But I'd like to hear you define why basic things like fruits and veggies are not considered staples? Grains? Fish? Chicken? Beef?
    1. I fail to found exported chicken in Aushan or any other chain stores with reasonable prices.
    2. You consider shrimp, crab, and lobster a "basic staple"? Gawd, You leave in a fairy kingdom, may be? This food is fu(king expensive, two-three time more expensive than ordinary beef, as expensive as fine veal.
    3. Fruits and vegies vary greatly, from the cheapest Russian to the most expensive European, glorious Polish apples lie somewhere in the middle.
    4. Fish - well, I'll miss Norwegian salmon. Beef/pork - there are some exported, two-three times more expensive than Russian.
    5. Grain - Russia actually exports wheat, but imports durum wheat, but I prefer rye-bread, so I'll not suffer without macaroni and wheat-bread(assuming that at least part of it is made of exported wheat).

    upd. I'll not miss Norwegian salmon - just bought 2 kilos of Karelian trout
    Here is a pic of sanctioned grub I found in my fridge


    conclusion: I'll not starve because of sanctions.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-13-2014 at 12:18 AM.
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  3. #223
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    "Ich habe Putin zu Sanktionen geraten"

    I actually remember that German guy from a interview a couple of years ago. Already then he was one of the biggest producers of milk in Russia and moving into different areas. The company website offers some basic information.

    DIE ZEIT: Herr Duerr, der russische Praesident Wladimir Putin hat ein Importverbot gegen westliche Lebensmittel verhngt. Hat Sie das ueberrascht?

    Stefan Duerr: Nein, in Russland haben alle darauf gewartet, dass die Regierung mit Gegenmanahmen auf die Sanktionen der EU und der USA antwortet. berrascht hat mich das nicht. Einen Tag vor dem verkuendeten Importstopp sass ich sogar noch mit dem Praesidenten zusammen, und er hat mit mir auch ueber die Krise gesprochen.
    He came across as quite humble and insightful and I guess the question of the interviewer let to that 'I talked to the president before' answer. There is little doubt that his and other companies will greatly profit from sanctions. Russia has certainly lots of potentials in agriculture but one can not just turn a switch and become close to selfsufficiency. It will be rather interesting to see to which degree prices will rise and supply contract in the coming weeks and months.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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  4. #224
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyxilis View Post
    For now, Russia imported billions worth of meat. First month it will be of little effect.
    All this meat cost two-three time more expensive then Russian,

    I certainly consider shrimp such, and crab. Both are actually found rather cheap in the US, EU, Australia, Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. Only certain crab breeds are expensive. Why isn't it true for Russia?
    Actually, I found shrimps in Aushan, none of it were from EU/USA, Argentinian mostly, 16-30$ per kilo.

    They will vary a lot less soon for yes some are pricier than others, but it doesn't matter. If you cut out a low cost or an expensive supplier than means your supply is lower. Even .05 cent veggies will go up. Every penny is just one less in the middle and poor's pockets.
    That's true, as well as trivial.

    Russia is not self sufficient in beef. Cattle was being exported en masse to Russia because it was trying to become beef self sufficient. Most of these imported cattle were from the US. It wasn't there yet, supply is now down, beef will go up. Once more, never said beefless, I said cost. Even as far back as 2012 Russia was still importing a lot of beef:
    May be, I've never intentionally looked for exported beef in any shop, for obvious reason.

    What you prefer, and what other people eat especially poor are an entirely different thing. Russian wheat imports were not the most impressive but any product removed is an alternative no longer there. Russia still imported most of its lentils, peas, beans, soy, and other low cost food items.
    OK, next time I'll do some research of the canned food prices in the closest retail shop for working class.

    Cost, cost, cost. Extra spending cash was already low in Russia's middle class, this will just consume more of it. Russia only punished its middle class and poor. The more trouble they get into the more they turn to the state, the more the state has to spend to make certain they eat the more it will cost for them.
    Anecdotal pictures of food I don't care about. I want data that suggests Russia didn't import more than 30% of its food. Show me that.
    I have no such data, I just enjoy common sence which allows me to to fill my food basket with variety of unsanctioned grub for a reasonable price.
    God bless you, innocent child, cherish your anecdotal beliefs, while middle class and poor out there are making themselves ready for food rationing, gravely serious.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-14-2014 at 04:16 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    I have no such data, I just enjoy common sence which allows me to to fill my food basket with variety of unsanctioned grub for a reasonable price.
    God bless you, innocent child, cherish your anecdotal beliefs, while middle class and poor out there are making themselves ready for food rationing, gravely serious.
    It's not ancedotal, you just do not have any idea of trade. Even the US can't just switch it's primary imports of form one country to the other even if the other has the supplies. It takes months if not years to build the infrastructure, establish routes, line up trade companies, and get the government red tape approved. You and 'common sense' do not change what is well established and even taught in Russian schools about trade.

    And I bet you it's still affordable, you have warehouses still full of stuff that was in the pipeline. Factories for apple juice still have polish apples sitting waiting to be juiced. They will not next month.

    Russia's own government websites put food imports from the countries it banned as high. So, tell me how you expect Russia to avoid increases in the months it takes to negotiate and establish with others in the mean time when Russia has not now or ever been 100% independent on trade? Why Russia is magically immune to cost increases when supply influences cost. Russia just cut a large source of the supplies?

    These are facts of trade. If the US banned Mexican strawberries it could get them from Brazil, cost would still suffer within a month and beyond. This isn't about nationalistic nonsense.

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    "I have no such data, I just enjoy common sence which allows me to to fill my food basket with variety of unsanctioned grub for a reasonable price.
    God bless you, innocent child, cherish your anecdotal beliefs, while middle class and poor out there are making themselves ready for food rationing, gravely serious."

    BUT:

    At least the Russians did not ban oranges and bananas and lifted the serious mistake of theirs when they banned even grain seeds for next years plantings which all comes from the West.

    Appears Russians after all these years still does not get globalized trading---maybe because they are still hung up on state owned businesses for their oligarchs.

    Will be extremely interesting to see what is left on the shelves at Christmas and how much they are paying even for Russian substitutes.

  7. #227
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyxilis View Post
    And I bet you it's still affordable, you have warehouses still full of stuff that was in the pipeline. Factories for apple juice still have polish apples sitting waiting to be juiced. They will not next month.
    Thank you K.O., it's very true.

    So, tell me how you expect Russia to avoid increases in the months it takes to negotiate and establish with others in the mean time when Russia has not now or ever been 100% independent on trade? Why Russia is magically immune to cost increases when supply influences cost.
    Straw Man Fallacy.
    Cite my post where I wrote anything like this.

    These are facts of trade. If the US banned Mexican strawberries it could get them from Brazil, cost would still suffer within a month and beyond.
    Thank you K.O., for stating the obvious again.
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    Russian business daily Vedomosti published today article about Russia's food sanctions. Tis graphic is in Russian, but you do understand the point. First column is country, second is amount in millions of tonns and third is percent of whole import.

    http://www.vedomosti.ru/img/newsline..._news_pic1.png

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    Should oil prices slide under the $90 level, Yamada sees two big support levels below. “You could see $85 which is your next support [going] back to 2012,” she said.

    Beyond that, Yamada thinks prices could hit somewhere between $78 and $80, the bottom of the trading range that began around 2011. “Basically that wide trading range will probably hold for a considerable period of time,” she added

  10. #230
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    The oil prices is of course of huge importance for the Russian economy which is quite similar in some ways to a Gulf state. Crash in Oil Prices Deals Blow to Sanctions-Hit Russian Economy is for my taste a bit sensational.

    Russian Urals crude weakened for an eight straight trading day on Monday due to weak European refining demand, falling well below $100 a barrel for the first time in a year in a move to increase the pain for Russian state finances amid Western sanctions.

    Russia has balanced its budget at $114 a barrel this year as President Vladimir Putin is ramping up social military spending amid a conflict in Ukraine, which sent relations between Moscow and the West to their worst since the end of the Cold War.
    The fall of the ruble against the USD should actually help to cushion the lower oil prices but on the other side the Kremlin seems to spend more. This plan is just the latest of a series of creative ways helping to balance the budget.


    The Russian government may start helping itself to a bigger share in its Central Bank's profits, in the latest attempt to plug up holes in a federal budget under pressure from Western sanctions and a sharp economic slowdown.

    In a move not expected to seriously affect the regulator's operations, 75 percent of the Central Banks' profits for 2013 and 2014 would be syphoned into the federal budget over the next two years, up from the usual 50 percent, under a Finance Ministry bill approved Tuesday by the government's legislative commission. The government is to consider the proposal at an upcoming session.

    Russian import ban fuels food price rises

    Since the ban was imposed on 7 August imported pork used in processed meat in Moscow has gone up by 6%, Russian business daily Kommersant reports.

    In St Petersburg food prices have risen 10%. That inflation occurred even before the impact of sanctions.

    Russia's ban on many Western foods is retaliation for sanctions over Ukraine.

    The St Petersburg government's economic policy chief, Anatoly Kotov, said the pork price had risen by 23.5% and chicken by 25.8%.
    It is important to point out that much of the negative effects of the food bans might still be ahead. Still early days in that area.
    Last edited by Firn; 08-19-2014 at 07:00 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

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    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Pics from "P'at'erochka" retail shop, lowest prices in Moscow, as I promosed before









    variery as usual, prices too.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-19-2014 at 07:27 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    The oil prices is of course of huge importance for the Russian economy which is quite similar in some ways to a Gulf state. Crash in Oil Prices Deals Blow to Sanctions-Hit Russian Economy is for my taste a bit sensational.
    firn---this is an interesting oil price problem article. What is interesting in the article is Russia needs a pricing of 104 up from 89 per barrel which if correct ---the oil futures are showing a down turn at a ceiling of 95 and potentially sinking to 90 and under.

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...sh/505418.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-19-2014 at 09:25 PM. Reason: fix quote

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    mirhond---are we sure these are the banned products that you are photographing.

    make sure the date/time/geo tagging is turned on when you take the photos as they could have been taken long before the bans went in to effect. by the way since you are monitoring the Ukrainian events you will know how important the geo tagging and date/time are.

    if they are in fact banned products which by the way cannot be seen just by the names on the cans--then they are what was in the pipeline in the warehouses which you even agreed is probably a correct assumption.

    especially the apples---
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-19-2014 at 09:12 PM.

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    mirhond, thanks for pics! From which metro station Пятерочка did you take the photos? It is quite possible, that I manage to make inspection next week to confirm or deny your claims

    You got nice slogan Did you borrow this from " Россия сегодня"/"Russia Today"
    Last edited by kaur; 08-20-2014 at 09:23 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Pics from "P'at'erochka" retail shop, lowest prices in Moscow, as I promosed before
    mirhond---looks like the prices climbed 6% in just one week---next week another 6% - 10% is being projected by even some Russian economists.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28855966

    and yesterday in Interfax and RIA Russian banks approached the Central Bank all asking for financial assistance due to the sanctions so was the Crimea and eastern Ukraine worth it for the average Russian?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-21-2014 at 10:21 AM. Reason: fix quote

  16. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    mirhond, thanks for pics! From which metro station Пятерочка did you take the photos? It is quite possible, that I manage to make inspection next week to confirm or deny your claims

    You got nice slogan Did you borrow this from " Россия сегодня"/"Russia Today"
    Пятерочка is a net shop belongs to X5 Retail Group, thre are dozens of it everywhere. This particular one near м. Академическая. I could even give you a free tour

    The author of this slogan is writer Viktor Pelevin, you might have heard of him.
    Last edited by mirhond; 08-21-2014 at 10:57 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Пятерочка is a net shop belongs to X5 Retail Group, thre are dozens of it everywhere. This particular one near м. Академическая. I could even give you a free tour

    The author of this slogan is writer Viktor Pelevin, you might have heard of him.


    mirhond--well no more Mickey Di's--you might like this comment

    "No Two Countries That Both Had McDonald's Fought a War Against Each Other" (But a Country Can Be At War With Itself)

  18. #238
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    Well nobody knows for sure where the oil price will go in the short run, so many factors, so much unknown. What is certain that Putin's Russia has in the last years steadily increased it's spending and needed with it's reliance on energy prices thus an ever higher floor.

    NG prices play a smaller part. We already discussed that many big utilities in Europe have dialed down their demand for gas because it's often no longer competitive against coal with the problems on the emission market.

    All in all so far Russias import bans seem to work as Econ 101 suggested they would.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  19. #239
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    German 'foreign policy experts' call for demand new EU sanctions against Russia after it's 'open war'/'undeclared war' against Ukraine. One chairs the foreign relation council of the Bundestag, the other one is the assistent head of the CDU/CSU. The former something I have been writing for a long time...

    Weakness of the Wester World is not de-escalating
    (In this case and others I should add, which doesn't mean that in other occasions the current approach is wrong)


    New sanctions against Russia could hit, depending on their quality and quantity, an already shrinking Russian economy hard. Especially if the retaliation is as stupid as it was the last time. Bloomberg has a good update on the situation. I would personally put the likelyhood of a recession far higher and indeed think that we are already in one with the second quarter getting adjusted downwards.

    “After the last round of sanctions and somewhat unexpectedly harsh Russian retaliation, which is going to hurt it more than the Western countries, it is becoming obvious that economic reasoning was not found in Russian policy makers’ toolkit,” Nerijus Maciulis, chief economist at Swedbank Lithuania in Vilnius, said by e-mail.
    The guys at the Russian Central Bank and quite a few others in the respective ministries have tried hard but has been obvious for a while that the big shots are called in Putin's inner circle. One of the biggest fears seems to be a budget deficit for which most of those 'creative' moves were exectuted. I highly doubt that we will see a stimulus for the very weak economy as it would counteract that fear in the short term.
    Last edited by Firn; 08-28-2014 at 04:58 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-01-2014 at 06:05 PM. Reason: fix link

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