Page 20 of 32 FirstFirst ... 10181920212230 ... LastLast
Results 381 to 400 of 638

Thread: The Russian economy (catch all)

  1. #381
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    IIRC the Moscow Times run a while ago an article why Russia imports so much fish from the West and still exports a large amount to other countries. The solution is of course quite obvious and has to do with the sheer size of Russia and the distribution of it's population...

    Actually a considerable part of Chinese products destined for Russia gets shipped to the EU for similar reasons.

    BTW, the article 'The World is still not flat' has a nice graph which should underestimate to a good degree the calls between countries where costs are relatively high. Still if you take that into account it (over)fits with the streams of trade.



    Now what did the authors have in mind when they put Russia so far away from the rest of Europe? Other then that a large amount of calls goes to Ukraine*...

    *Many Ukrainians, just like folk from Kazakhstan, work of course in Russia which explains part of the volume.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-03-2014 at 06:00 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  2. #382
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    firn---now comes the Russian economy crash that Putin did not calculate when he made his Crimea and eastern Ukraine moves.

    LONDON (AP) -- Oil prices sank to four-year lows on Tuesday following reports Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, is cutting its prices for customers in the U.S.

    By early afternoon London time, a barrel of benchmark crude was down $2.07, or 2.6 percent, at $76.79, its lowest level since September 2010. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down $2.14, or 2.5 percent, at $82.63 a barrel, its lowest level since October 2010.
    The market was shaken by news that Saudi Arabia was cutting prices for the U.S. to compete with the surge in oil production there.

    "A snowballing effect is what we are seeing in crude oil price today," said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at Forex.com. "News that Saudi has cut its asking price to customers in the U.S. suggests even the largest OPEC producer is now worried about its market share. This does not bode well for the future of the cartel."

  3. #383
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    IMF sees Russia's economic downturn weighing down Central Asia, Caucasus; growth weakening, inflation up

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...f/mreo1014.pdf

  4. #384
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    (Economic giants) #Abkhazia,#Transnistria,#Venezuela & #Cuba assist DNR-Whatever #Zakharchenko

    http://bit.ly/1tX0Mhd
    pic.twitter.com/gBE1uX0EJB

  5. #385
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    Nor suprisingly the impact of the Russian slowdown is in those 'Stans' felt more on the import side and the soft paychecks of migrant workers. On the other hand the fall in commodity prices reduces the amount of hard currency flowing into the economy or the various pockets.

    An interesting survey, thanks to the Moscow Times for sharing it.

    The index was based on a survey of entrepreneurs over the third quarter of this year representing almost 2,000 small and medium-sized companies involved in sales, manufacturing and service industries in 19 Russian regions.

    It showed that companies are struggling to raise finance and are not planning new investment.

    ...

    "But as companies get smaller, business activity and attitudes become more and more negative," he said. This is a worrying sign Konstandyan said: Small business is a fine-tuned barometer that reacts to changing economic realities first, sending warning signals to bigger companies.

    Small and medium-sized companies expected a decline in their sales volumes and revenue this year, the index said.

    Whereas in developed Western economies small businesses' share of gross domestic product can be as high as 70 percent, in Russia the figure is roughly 20 percent. And despite government support programs to reverse the trend, experts say this number is only decreasing.
    The difficulties for Russian small & mid companies to get credits is of course not exactly new but even if they could the high rates make of course new investments far less attractive. The weight of the state economy in Russia is, needless to repeat, staggering.

    The cited upside of high inflation as a chance to raise prices is quite interesting and it would be nice to digg deeper there. One should also not omit that Russia climbed 30 places up to 62nd in the World Bank's 'Doing Business' Report.

    P.S: A quick check confirmed my hunch that the last data comes from late Nov 2013.

    P.P.S: Catanzaro does so well that my cynical side gets primed...
    Last edited by Firn; 11-04-2014 at 06:36 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  6. #386
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    Konstantin Sonin's view reflects much of my own thoughts. Of course the self-inflicted wounds, the Western sanctions and now the lower energy prices have accelerated this process...

    Most Russians — ordinary citizens and members of the ruling elite alike — probably identify January 1992 as the "breaking point" when the economic problems that had existed for the previous two years came to a head and the former Soviet economic model stopped working. Though contrary to widespread myth, former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar did not eliminate the planned economy: It had ceased to function even before he came to office. Thus, the economic problems of the early 1990s had been set into motion long before, through the gradual breakdown of the Soviet economy.

    The current crisis is the same sort of "gradual" type, and the economic slowdown actually began long ago. The quarterly growth rate began declining after the presidential elections in 2012 and reached a state of complete stagnation in 2014. The slowdown was quite natural.

    First, growth originally began from a low starting point and second, Russia exhausted the sources of its growth in the 2000s — primarily the untapped labor pool and production capacity along with rising oil prices. For the economy to grow further, it needed investments.
    I did of course bring Yegor Gaidar early into this discussion. The cited, often held impression and confusion about cause and effect reminds me a bit of the 'dagger' myth in post WWI Germany.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  7. #387
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    firn--today the Russian Central Bank all but gave up in their support of the falling Rubel--minimal efforts were undertaken thus the fall of the Ruble to a ne "historic low" against the USD.

    They are appearing to let it "free float" and it will then be interesting to see how the political events around Russia now drive the currency.

  8. #388
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    firn--today the Russian Central Bank all but gave up in their support of the falling Rubel--minimal efforts were undertaken thus the fall of the Ruble to a ne "historic low" against the USD.

    They are appearing to let it "free float" and it will then be interesting to see how the political events around Russia now drive the currency.
    Just a quick look by Bloomberg:


    Russia spent about $30 billion to shore up the ruble in October as oil’s slide and sanctions over Ukraine worsened the world’s worst currency rout. The Bank of Russia said today it was abandoning its predictable intervention policy to hamper “speculative strategies” against the ruble. It also freed itself up to sell foreign currency at undisclosed quantities to defend against “threats” to the nation’s financial stability.

    “It’s a big step toward floating the ruble,” Neil Shearing, the chief emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said by phone. The ruble is “going to find a floor more quickly than would have been the case under the old framework, and the central bank will spend fewer of its foreign-currency reserves in the process.”

    Reserves of the world’s largest energy exporter have fallen $73 billion in 2014 to a four-year low of $439 billion on Oct. 24 as the standoff with the U.S. and its allies over Ukraine worsened, oil prices slid to four-year lows and sanctions created a domestic dollar shortage. Russia’s $2 trillion economy is on the brink of recession.
    We have of course just a limited insight but I remarked earlier that hard-currency reserves or their lack have at times been very important in the last three decades in that area of the world. Thus the decision-makers should tent to be more sensitive in that regard. The RCB of course monitors the expectations and tried to pull off a Guderian by hiking big in one go while trying to covering the retreat of it's reserves from the market. So far it looks like that they underestimated the market reaction to the latter once they discovered the ruse...


    P.S: "We'll be monitoring our gold and forex reserves and the national currency's exchange rate. We'll be making a gradual transition to a floating rate, we won't be burning our reserves thoughtlessly, but using them for a certain balancing," Putin said in late late October.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-05-2014 at 06:40 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  9. #389
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    firn---as a "free floating currency" the Ruble will now be extremely venerable to political events and Russia political actions/reactions much as are other western currencies.

    Will be interesting to see the development of the free fall as the fighting have broken out now all along the mercenary frontlines in over 40 or more locations and the Ukraine is now stating they are fighting no longer for the Donbas but to survive as a nation state---that is in very undiplomatic language---we are now at war with Russia.

    That will have an impact tomorrow.

    From Interfax today:

    14:10 Euro soars higher than 57 rubles, fall of ruble continuing to gain momentum

  10. #390
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    firn---Rubel to 47 and it is going lower in the forex boards this morning.

    Today's Nezavis.Gazeta on the sliding rouble: "The authorities are finding it increasingly difficult to convince Russians to stay calm"

    Putin has now a choice---continue onto victory in eastern Ukraine and or completely lose his own economy in the so called "victory".

    Russia's economy: No access to credit, no investments, no manufacturing, brain drain, sinking oil price, lower oil production expected.

  11. #391
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    mirhond--hope you are not travelling anywhere where you need USDs, Euros or GBPs.

    and you still think the sanctions are not hurting Russia?

    #Russia's ruble drops off a cliff, as #Ukraine's war deepens:

    $1 = 47.023
    €1 = 58.305
    £1 = 74.409
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-07-2014 at 10:51 AM.

  12. #392
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    firn---will be interesting to learn the results of this Russian CB emergency meeting? Was the foreign currency account actually just one big Ponzi scheme that has been rocked by the falling oil price and ruble support and they have actually far less than they have always stated they have?

    Central Bank of Russia holding an emergency meeting right now. Mega rate hike on the way?

  13. #393
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    OPEC via a number of press reports indicated they can live with the current bottom remaining in the 70-75 USD ranges.

    Part of the KSAs oil price reduction is to get their sour crude to market in the US refineries thus the price reductions for US consumers as the US has the largest sour crude refinery capacity in the world---appears that there is a slow down in sour rude sales due to the US fracking oil coming online massively which is an ultra light grade rating a higher than WTI pricing level.

    And since Russian oil is sour thus the impact on Russian prices and sales.

    From RIA today:

    Global Oil Prices Continue Fall Amid OPEC Forecasts
    By 08:24 a.m. Moscow time (05:24 GMT) December futures for the US WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil fell by 1.44 percent to $77.56 per barrel. December futures for Brent fell by 0.68 percent to $82.39 per barrel.

  14. #394
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Results from the Russian CB emergency meeting--NOTICE they are blaming currency speculators and not the events in the Ukraine and or the sanctions and the sinking oil prices:

    MOSCOW, November 7 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Central Bank said Friday it was ready to increase interventions on domestic currency markets as there are prospects of risks for financial stability in the country caused by a spike in consumer demand for foreign currencies.

    "We have noticed signs of a speculative demand [on domestic currency markets] in the past few days, which poses risks for Russia's financial stability," the country's financial regulator said in a statement.

    "In this situation, we are ready to increase currency interventions at any time, and also use other financial instruments [to stabilize the demand]," the statement said.

    Russia's national currency, the ruble, has lost a quarter of its value since the beginning of 2014.

    The weakening of the ruble spiked this week after the Central Bank announced on November 5 it had dramatically reduced its support for the national currency pursuing the transition to the so-called "free floating" currency exchange policy.

  15. #395
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    Roughly half a year ago I stated in this post:

    There is in my opinion little doubt that for the West Russians center of gravity is it's economy, while for Russia it is the Westerns political willpower. Interestingly the EU+USA are roughly twenty times bigger in GDP terms the Russia, almost the same factor by which the Ukraine mainland dwarfs it's occupied territory. It would certainly be the supreme irony if Russias Crimean robbery would result in the long term loss of the Ukraine.
    I think it is now plain that Russia's center of gravity is indeed it's economy, which has run out of steam due to various issues discussed in this thread. Putin's model, based on a large public sector and tight control of the 'strategic' big players of economy was only possible due to high oil prices created in part by an increasing global demand in the wake of robust global growth. Demographic reserves and the usual well-know macro mechanisms after a collapse played it's part in the recovery. It brought great economic and social benefits to the Russian people as a whole, even if the share was quite uneven, especially in comparision to the hard years after the Soviet crash. It's cost in democracy and liberty seems so far small to many.

    Nobody can predict what exactly will happen to the Russian economy as it depends on quite a few variables but obviously it looks pretty grim if you take the currently available facts into account. Just look at the start of the thread, created in a difficult time for Russia during big global shock. Clearly the Russian economy survived through big stimulation, aggressive RCB action and mighty oil price swing up. The structural Russian weaknesses were already obvious there and deepened in good times only to resurface strongly in the current situation. This doesn't mean that Putin's model has to collapse soon and certainly not that we know how the public will react in that case. If however Putin continues to wage war and the Ukraine and the Western countries don't give up easily the conflict will continue for a long time. In that case is highly doubtful that Russia will be able to grow much, if at all, in the next years. I seems that what Gaidar feared has become true, Russia has become a threat to the world. That is the worst thing that could happen to Russia, he stated, short of a terrible (nuclear) war I suppose.

    What internal consequences this will have I don't know but everything passes in some way or the other. Of course this can take sometimes a surprisingly long time. It would be quite naive to expect 'results' in a quarter or a year.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-07-2014 at 08:51 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  16. #396
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Roughly half a year ago I stated in this post:



    I think it is now plain that Russia's center of gravity is indeed it's economy, which has run out of steam due to various issues discussed in this thread. Putin's model, based on a large public sector and tight control of the 'strategic' big players of economy was only possible due to high oil prices created in part by an increasing global demand in the wake of robust global growth. Demographic reserves and the usual well-know macro mechanisms after a collapse played it's part in the recovery. It brought great economic and social benefits to the Russian people as a whole, even if the share was quite uneven, especially in comparision to the hard years after the Soviet crash. It's cost in democracy and liberty seems so far small to many.

    Nobody can predict what exactly will happen to the Russian economy as it depends on quite a few variables but obviously it looks pretty grim if you take the currently available facts into account. Just look at the start of the thread, created in a difficult time for Russia during big global shock. Clearly the Russian economy survived through big stimulation, aggressive RCB action and mighty oil price swing up. The structural Russian weaknesses were already obvious there and deepened in good times only to resurface strongly in the current situation. This doesn't mean that Putin's model has to collapse soon and certainly not that we know how the public will react in that case. If however Putin continues to wage war and the Ukraine and the Western countries don't give up easily the conflict will continue for a long time. In that case is highly doubtful that Russia will be able to grow much, if at all, in the next years. I seems that what Gaidar feared has become true, Russia has become a threat to the world. That is the worst thing that could happen to Russia, he stated, short of a terrible (nuclear) war I suppose.

    What internal consequences this will have I don't know but everything passes in some way or the other. Of course this can take sometimes a surprisingly long time. It would be quite naive to expect 'results' in a quarter or a year.
    firn---a few really good European "left" economists are now publicly stating that what one sees now is nothing to what they are predicting to occur the middle of 2015 when the sanctions really hit and if oil settles into the 70-75 range as being now publicly stated by OPEC to be their "bottom vision".

    They estimate as it is hard to get economic facts out of the Russian oligarchs---160B USD has to be paid back in outstanding loans and lines of credit in 2015 as the Russian oligarchs have been living on "borrowed cheap money" and literally pocketing via corruption the profits.

    One stated yesterday---if you have built your entire economy around 100 per barrel and could not get the investment side going and making the economy resilient then at 75 you will just crash as there is nothing that can be done for "poor" leadership on the political side.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-08-2014 at 05:44 AM.

  17. #397
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Smart seven-point analysis of Russia's economy. Summary: it's all about Putin

    http://www.bloombergview.com/article...nancial-crisis

  18. #398
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    firn---here comes the 60-65 per barrel range---the main producers of the OPEC have stated they can live with that for awhile.

    KSA kicked it off---was it aimed at Russian support to Assad and to damaging Iran the regional hegemony competitor also being supported by Russia?

    JP Morgan suggesting oil price could fall to 65 USD per barrel.
    RUS-> http://tvrain.ru/articles/jpmorgan_d...llarov-378022/
    pic.twitter.com/SaNA8eeggr

  19. #399
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    35,749

    Default

    Crude futures prices may continue to free fall even with the 30% drop since June. The price of West Texas Intermediate for December is now hovering at the $76 a barrel level, just shy of the $75 target the team at Goldman Sachs (GS) is forecasting for 2015. While Brent for December is at $79 a barrel, the lowest since 2010 and below Goldman’s $85 a barrel target.

    These prices may look good to some speculators, however Jonathan Hoenig of CapitalistPig.com says forget about it. “Why go long assets in a bear market? It’s a bad move, it's a low probability bet in my book.”

    Hoeing predicts the bear market in crude will continue with prices potentially falling as low as $50 a barrel, in part because the global economy is slowing, pushing supply levels higher.

    Get the Latest Market Data and News with the Yahoo Finance App

    This week the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed what the market is telling us by cutting its 2015 forecast for Brent crude to $83 a barrel. In a report, the EIA said, “There is significant uncertainty over the crude oil price forecast because of the range of potential supply responses from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), particularly Saudi Arabia, and U.S. tight oil producers to the new lower oil price environment.” OPEC is set to meet on November 27th in Vienna, Austria.

    The other half of the energy story and also a big influence on prices, says Hoenig, is the advancement in the U.S. energy industry, and the production of great oil companies particularly in the United States. "We like to rail against fossil fuel companies, but it is their advancements in oil extraction and fracking that have brought oil and natural prices to historic lows.”

    The EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.97/million British thermal units this winter, lower than the $4.53/M BTUs last winter. The United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which closely tracks the natural gas market, has advanced 22% over the past 12 months.

  20. #400
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    @Outlaw: I'm always a bit amused on how quickly and massively some analysts change their forecasts, happens also for listed companies. Of course I can afford to have no opinion on the future oil Price, others have to work with something for their budget.

    After a short general take on the Russian economy it makes sense to look after a while again at the Crimean one.

    Russia Delivers a New Shock to Crimean Business: Forced Nationalization:

    Another recent target was Zaliv, Crimea’s largest civilian shipbuilder. In late August, men describing themselves as Crimean “self-defense” forces stormed the company’s headquarters in the port of Kerch and demanded that management hand over control to a Moscow-based company. “Currently, representatives of the legitimate government of [Zaliv] are not allowed to perform their functions,” the company said in a statement on its website, adding that its activities have been “completely blocked.” No official reason was given for the seizure, but Russian authorities have said they want to overhaul Crimea’s shipbuilding industry.
    Seems like the Goblin and his friends are rather busy...


    Such measures are turning Crimea into a “neo-Bolshevik criminal dictatorship,” Russian opposition party Yabloko said in a statement this week on its website. “The action to legitimize robbery must be cancelled, stolen property returned to owners, losses reimbursed.”
    Well put but robbing here and there seems now so easy. Of course part of those assets will likely indeed become nationalized, the question is only how large that slice will be...
    Last edited by Firn; 11-18-2014 at 10:04 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

Similar Threads

  1. Watching Russian Air & Sea Activity
    By AdamG in forum Global Issues & Threats
    Replies: 285
    Last Post: 07-04-2019, 10:35 AM
  2. Replies: 433
    Last Post: 01-18-2017, 10:54 AM
  3. Human Rights Watch
    By SWJED in forum Blog Watch
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 10-11-2012, 09:06 PM
  4. Russian Bronze Statue in Estonia
    By Stan in forum Historians
    Replies: 290
    Last Post: 10-22-2010, 08:22 PM
  5. Nation-Building Elevated
    By SWJED in forum Government Agencies & Officials
    Replies: 97
    Last Post: 01-30-2010, 01:35 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •