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Thread: The Russian economy (catch all)

  1. #401
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Firn,

    The shipyard @ Kerch has a website in English, which in places is quite revealing, especially over the lack of shipbuilding for many years:http://www.zaliv.com/en/

    When I visited the Crimea now a few years ago the steel plant in the city, close to the shipyard and shore was moribund. My recollection was that our guide stated very little work was being done at either industrial plant.
    davidbfpo

  2. #402
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Good catch. The lack of activity is of course not surprising if you consider the great shift away from far more modern European yards to Asian, especially South Koreans ones.

    Maybe that LLC "Shipyard "Zaliv" was founded not that long ago. They registered the shipyard business in Moscow to usurp the original JSC "Zaliv Shipyard" and hired in the next step some 'self-defence guys' to take over physically. Now they might hope that Moscow 'invests' into Crimean shipbuilding and their pockets...

    My 2 cents, I could be easily wrong, of course.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  3. #403
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    Some where we discussed with mirhond food prices in Russia. Russian business TV channel published in the end of September this information. Sorry, in Russian.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gph0HXhmRU

    Fruits' prices will go up 40%
    Salmon 35-40%. Biggest salmon importer is Faroe Islands instead of Norway. Check the map.
    Milk price will go up.

  4. #404
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    And the Russian economy just keeps on tanking---the interesting point will be---at what point in the tanking is the pain so intense Putin stops in the Ukraine?


    #Russia reserves hit fresh 5yr low. Gold, Forex Reserves down $0.8bn to $420.6bn in week to Nov14.
    pic.twitter.com/LHOkdh5cjA

  5. #405
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    @Outlaw: Inflation, especially in the food sector was certainly strong in this year and even more so recently:

    From October to November, the price of hard flour increased more than 70 percent, Andrei Dribny, CEO of Extra-M, one of Russia's largest pasta producers, told Interfax. The retail price of pasta, which is made from hard flour, could soon rise 20 to 25 percent, he said.

    The price of rice has also climbed from about 26,000 rubles ($550) a ton in October to 33,000 rubles ($700) a ton this month, the report said, citing data from grain tracker ProZerno.

    ...

    The prices of apples, sunflower oil and buckwheat have also risen steeply in recent months. Buckwheat, a traditional staple of Russian cuisine, spiked to an average of about 45 rubles ($0.96) per kilogram on Wednesday, with prices increasing up to 80 percent in some regions.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  6. #406
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    More interesting, from an economic point of view, are the various difficulties facing some Crimeans:

    Ten months after Russia invaded this Black Sea peninsula and seized it from Ukraine, the financial fallout is still being felt. Thousands of ordinary citizens have little or no access to their funds. Losses for Ukrainian banks continue to mount as billions of dollars worth of loans they issued in Crimea go unpaid. Lawyers for the banks are preparing legal actions against Russia, which confiscated many of the banks' buildings, equipment and cash.

    Meanwhile, Crimea has been thrust into a kind of technological time warp: Most ATMs no longer accept non-Russian bank cards; foreign credit cards can't be used to buy things. Most non-local mobile phones can't receive a signal. And even if they could, calling other Crimeans is complicated: Most of the peninsula's residents recently had to get new mobile phone numbers because Ukrainian services were cut off.

    The banking and phone chaos are another front in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

    In Crimea, which has been part of Ukraine for 60 years, Russia has basically blown up the existing banking system, forcing Ukrainian banks to close, banning the Ukrainian currency and replacing the region's retail banking network almost overnight. The resulting economic turmoil has shuttered some businesses and complicated life for thousands, forcing people to deal with a Kafkaesque bureaucracy to try to get their money returned.
    It is of course important that so far:

    For all the havoc President Vladimir Putin's conquest has caused, many living here don't blame him for their hardship. In interviews, residents accused Ukrainian banks and the government in Kiev of stealing their money
    Crimea is an interesting case study of a region torn from pretty strong economic (among others) links trying to grow new ones with an economically more distant occupier. Not an easy task under any circumstances, far more so in a war with a crashing economy and massive economic problems up north and big ones east. Add in the usual problems which seem to have increased a lot and it is difficult to see a quick economic recovery.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-20-2014 at 06:19 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  7. #407
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    Russia Update: Capital Flight from Russia Reaches $113 Billion This Year http://bit.ly/11HaauO

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    Delirious budget math in #Russia: final reading of RU budget passed based on oil price $96 per barrel; 1 USD = 37 RUB

    http://ria.ru/politics/20141121/1034509349.html


    Saw a small blog today coming out of Sweden indicating that the entire Russian business community has to handle the repayment of bank bond/bank debt to the tune of 160B USD by the end of 2015 beginning 2016.

  9. #409
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    Seems like some Russians are awakening to the simple fact that one cannot be a militay power unless one is an economic power.


    From Interfax today: 11/22 16:34 Kudrin: Russia's fate depends on economic power, not on weapons

  10. #410
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    I have been saying here for the last six months that the Russian economy is just one very large Ponzi scheme and the West has never really seen anything like it before. so therefore just does not recognize it for what it is.

    Looks like some are starting to pay attention.

    Russia's wounded economy is closer to crisis than the West or Vladimir Putin realise

    http://econ.st/1AoAE2A
    https://twitter.com/search?q=pic.twi...A0f1c&src=typd
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-23-2014 at 01:50 PM. Reason: 2nd link works

  11. #411
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    mirhond use to comment here at SWJ that there was no food price increases and or shortages since the sanctions went into force---does not match reality in Moscow though.

    Shopping in Moscow after Ukraine trip. Where's all the buckwheat gone??!! Big pain without the grain.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=pic.twi...M7%20&src=typd
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 11-23-2014 at 01:48 PM. Reason: Working link added

  12. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    I have been saying here for the last six months that the Russian economy is just one very large Ponzi scheme and the West has never really seen anything like it before. so therefore just does not recognize it for what it is.

    Looks like some are starting to pay attention.

    Russia's wounded economy is closer to crisis than the West or Vladimir Putin realise

    http://econ.st/1AoAE2A
    pic.twitter.com/qsho1A0f1c
    This taken from the article confirms my faith in the Russian economy just being one heck of a large Ponzi scheme that depended on cheap interest western bank loans and bonds---currently Russian companies must repay by the end of 2015 over 160B USDs in dollar bonds and or bank loans/lines of credit and they simply cannot meet that deadline while the dollar is high and in short supply.

    Even firms that earn dollar revenues may struggle to pay their debts. Rosneft, an oil giant, recently asked the Kremlin to lend it $44 billion. Mr Putin has so far resisted, but he cannot let a company that is 70% state-owned and employs 160,000 people fail. There is a lengthening queue of troubled Russian firms. Non-performing loans were rising even before interest rates were raised to 9.5% to defend the rouble. Meanwhile Russian banks are reliant on the central bank to replace deposits that their customers are understandably spiriting into dollars.

    Directly or indirectly, many of these bills will end up with the Kremlin, which is why its reserves will be vital. They are evaporating: down $100 billion in the past year, following failed attempts to defend the rouble. And the book-keeping is dodgy. Of the reported $370 billion reserve pile, more than $170 billion sits in the country’s two wealth funds. Some of their assets are iffy, including various stakes in Russia’s state-owned banks and debt issued by Ukraine that Mr Putin’s own aggression is fast rendering worthless. One of the funds is earmarked for pensions. In reality, Russia’s government has perhaps $270 billion of hard cash that is accessible and usable without massive cuts elsewhere—less than its external obligations due over the next two years (see article).

  13. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    mirhond use to comment here at SWJ that there was no food price increases and or shortages since the sanctions went into force---does not match reality in Moscow though.

    Shopping in Moscow after Ukraine trip. Where's all the buckwheat gone??!! Big pain without the grain.
    https://twitter.com/search?q=pic.twi...M7%20&src=typd
    Hope mirhond answers---

    Russia's changing. In August my local hypermarket was bursting with buckwheat. Not any more.
    pic.twitter.com/wj4kg4Eadm

    And maybe mirhond can respond to this article if he even accepts that it is true:

    110 individuals control 35% of #Russia's wealth - and Mr #Putin controls those 110

    http://www.economist.com/news/books-...band-brothers?
    pic.twitter.com/gSoiDRQGbd
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-23-2014 at 03:03 PM.

  14. #414
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    Falling oil prices have cost Russian 100B USD.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-301...PublicRSS20-sa

    So between the falling oil prices (100B) , sanctions (40B) and capital fleeing (120B) the country a total of 260B USD has "disappeared".

    So how long can the Russian CB hold on at this pace?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-24-2014 at 11:36 AM.

  15. #415
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    Slippery slope or a massive Ponzi scheme.

    #Russia’s official reserve figures overstate funds it has at its disposal http://econ.st/1xUFa80
    pic.twitter.com/GdWJAwIol5

  16. #416
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    Nice reporting & profile by @Reuters about Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash, to whom Russia channeled billions of $$

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/1...0TF4QD20141126

    Russian billionaire, judo head confirms $155 mln loan for Firtash bail. “Purely business transaction”

    Putin’s allies channelled billions to oligarch who backed pro-Russian president of Ukraine

    http://reut.rs/15wnzHY
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-26-2014 at 03:14 PM.

  17. #417
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    Russian budget, economy may lose $21.5 bln in 2015 over low oil prices, sluggish economic growth - Finance Minister

    Russia needs to readjust budget over next few years with oil prices at $80 per bbl instead of $100 per bbl - Finance Minister

  18. #418
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russian budget, economy may lose $21.5 bln in 2015 over low oil prices, sluggish economic growth - Finance Minister

    Russia needs to readjust budget over next few years with oil prices at $80 per bbl instead of $100 per bbl - Finance Minister
    Interfax from today:

    16:00 CORPORATE PROFITS IN RUSSIA PLUMMET OVER 83% IN SEPT, FALL FOR THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH - ROSSTAT

  19. #419
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    Not profitable." Kazakhstan stops supplying electricity to Russia, blames ruble devaluation. Coal may be next.

    http://www.fergananews.com/news/22848 (Rus)

  20. #420
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    Russia sold less than 10% of the debt it offered in auctions

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...-auctions.html

    #Oil Brent futures price fell again today to record $78,4, washing out the state budget funds of Putin's Russia.

    http://expres.ua/news/2014/11/26/120...nafta-pidkysne
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-26-2014 at 08:15 PM.

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