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Thread: The Russian economy (catch all)

  1. #421
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    While Crimea has a severe electricity shortage, Kazakhstan now says it will stop exporting electricity to #Russia

    http://lenta.ru/news/2014/11/26/energo/

  2. #422
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    VIENNA — Oil prices fell sharply Thursday amid expectations the powerful oil collective OPEC will decide against intervening in global markets by cutting production levels.

    Crude oil prices plummeted over 2% to $72.15 a barrel. In June, prices were as high as $115 a barrel.

    Russian lawmaker @A_Sidyakin on OPEC's decision not to cut oil output: "The ghost of the shale gas revolution has frightened the sheiks"

    Now we know the true profit margin for Russian oil.

    #Rosneft in response to #Opec decision: "Nothing extraordinary is happening. Rosneft has a safety margin given net prodn costs of $4/bbl"

    Russia dep finmin says hopes of $80 oil now look 'moderately optimistic,' problem of excess supply 'won't be resolved quickly'

    Oil prices plummet after OPEC says it won't intervene in markets. RU LUKOIL defies it'll produce oil w/max profit even if prices fall to $25

    But when your national budget is geared for 80 now and formally for 100 then 25 is a major economic disaster.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-27-2014 at 04:04 PM.

  3. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    VIENNA — Oil prices fell sharply Thursday amid expectations the powerful oil collective OPEC will decide against intervening in global markets by cutting production levels.

    Crude oil prices plummeted over 2% to $72.15 a barrel. In June, prices were as high as $115 a barrel.

    Russian lawmaker @A_Sidyakin on OPEC's decision not to cut oil output: "The ghost of the shale gas revolution has frightened the sheiks"

    Now we know the true profit margin for Russian oil.

    #Rosneft in response to #Opec decision: "Nothing extraordinary is happening. Rosneft has a safety margin given net prodn costs of $4/bbl"

    Russia dep finmin says hopes of $80 oil now look 'moderately optimistic,' problem of excess supply 'won't be resolved quickly'

    Oil prices plummet after OPEC says it won't intervene in markets. RU LUKOIL defies it'll produce oil w/max profit even if prices fall to $25

    But when your national budget is geared for 80 now and formally for 100 then 25 is a major economic disaster.

    #Rouble hits new record low of 48.36 per USD after #Opec decision. Down more than 3% in two hours. #Russia
    pic.twitter.com/1TMNAOFiRt



    Russian Stock Market -1.6%
    Gazprom -2.19%
    Lukoil -0.77%
    Sberbank -2.61%
    VTB - 2.1%
    Ruble vs USD -1,45% #47_74

    pic.twitter.com/LVy572TySl
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-27-2014 at 04:44 PM.

  4. #424
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    AND the Russian economy just keeps on going South---and a 20M USD per day for their military costs in the Ukraine---now becomes the question Ukraine or my own economy which is more important?

    This is the spiral death dance that I wrote about three months ago here in SWJ---Putin now has a serious decision to make--can he "win militarily in the Ukraine" but afford to completely crash his own economy and turn the Russian population against his moves?

    Or does he take an face saving off ramp and save himself---he may in fact go for the military option.


    Holy smokes. Brent down 41% now since June. WTI plunges below another threshold, in the $60s.


    #Rouble hits new record low of 48.36 per USD after Opec decision. Down more than 3% in two hours



    #BREAKING: BRENT CRUDE FALLS MORE THAN $6 TO $71.25 A BARREL #oil #OPEC This means that #Nigeria and #Angola are in trouble
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-27-2014 at 05:03 PM.

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    AND the Russian economy just keeps on going South---and a 20M USD per day for their military costs in the Ukraine---now becomes the question Ukraine or my own economy which is more important?

    This is the spiral death dance that I wrote about three months ago here in SWJ---Putin now has a serious decision to make--can he "win militarily in the Ukraine" but afford to completely crash his own economy and turn the Russian population against his moves?

    Or does he take an face saving off ramp and save himself---he may in fact go for the military option.


    Holy smokes. Brent down 41% now since June. WTI plunges below another threshold, in the $60s.

    #Rouble hits new record low of 48.36 per USD after Opec decision. Down more than 3% in two hours


    #BREAKING: BRENT CRUDE FALLS MORE THAN $6 TO $71.25 A BARREL #oil #OPEC This means that #Nigeria and #Angola are in trouble

    #Russia Ruble in free fall after Opec leaves #Oil production unchg. pic.twitter.com/NJtTRrBc9T

  6. #426
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    Perfect example of the Russian "altered state of reality".

    Seriously---since OPEC did not follow exactly what Russia wanted them to do they are being "investigated"?

    #Russian investigative committee opened criminal case on all members of #OPEC. Unfortunately this is no joke.

  7. #427
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    More Sechin: "#Rosneft is flexible and has resources; $60 suits us fine. Of course, we will be forced to postpone some expensive projects"

    Sechin predicts #oil price fall below $60 in first half of 2015:
    "We anticipate a possibility of a fall in prices to $60 and lower

  8. #428
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    Seriously! Did the Crude Oil (Brent) really drop to $72.58 -$5.17 -6.65% today? That is unprecedented!

    pic.twitter.com/l7HPqH0lTg

  9. #429
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    I often in the last several months indicated that the oil price would break towards 60 and it is breaking towards 60 and some oil analysts are saying if 60is broken then 50 is the bottom.

    A few months ago I remember reading an article about the mythical oil 75. Now the Brent is at 71.62!

    pic.twitter.com/KLFo0AwZMq

  10. #430
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    Brent breaks to 69 USD.

    #Putin says world to collapse with $80 oil. Then says oil will not fall below $75, today WTI oil at $69, Rosneft ask Putin to stop talking.

    1 USD= 49.99 RUBLE. The markets are punishing Russia far more than any meek Western government. Putin is squirming. pic.twitter.com/QFFIvgFhHc""

    And the ruble just continues it's free fall--at almost 62 per Euro

    #Russia'n national currency continues it's descent. And it still doesn't look like full scale panic is here.
    pic.twitter.com/RhbRfhBdBt
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-28-2014 at 11:17 AM.

  11. #431
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    Russians love conspiracy theories.

    VTB strategist Neil MacKinnon suggests move in oil price to $70 + below may be part of US-sponsored plot to hurt producers like Russia +Iran

    Would suggest to the VTB it might be in fact a KSA plot and not US sponsored as that would mean the US is actually telling the KSA what to do.

    Russian oil Ponzi scheme is now falling apart and they cannot stop the fall.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia...090902948.html
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-28-2014 at 11:41 AM.

  12. #432
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    Now comes the Russian blame game on their oil earnings losses---it's the US naturally.

    Sechin blasts America's "non-traditional" energy production.
    http://www.interfax.ru/business/409787

  13. #433
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    US crude hit 66.15 today

    Here's today's insane move in oil.
    pic.twitter.com/U2UCxyuae5

    Ruble just hit 50 to the U.S. dollar for the first time ever:
    pic.twitter.com/Pr8sZqZUAR

    Brent Crude price over the last 3 days $80 to $70
    pic.twitter.com/gWOMRGiOcP

  14. #434
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    Yes outlaw, the oil rout in recent weeks, especially the last days was indeed an amazing thing to watch. Show me the expert which predicted it at those levels and was not almost anytime wrong in the last ten years or so. This is why I try to avoid that area like the plague. I'm glad that I'm not long on commodities.

    As I have been bearish on the Russian economy in the long run I have to especially careful not to overvalue short term events which support my view. Much depends on how long the oil price stays at such or somewhat higher levels.

    P.S: Russia also suffered btw some losses when they exchanged hard dollars against soft gold.
    Last edited by Firn; 11-28-2014 at 08:28 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  15. #435
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Yes outlaw, the oil rout in recent weeks, especially the last days was indeed an amazing thing to watch. Show me the expert which predicted it at those levels and was not almost anytime wrong in the last ten years or so. This is why I try to avoid that area like the plague. I'm glad that I'm not long on commodities.

    As I have been bearish on the Russian economy in the long run I have to especially careful not to overvalue short term events which support my view. Much depends on how long the oil price stays at such or somewhat higher levels.

    P.S: Russia also suffered btw some losses when they exchanged hard dollars against soft gold.
    firn---this whole trend was triggered by the almost unannounced Strategic l Reserve oil sale of 6m barrels months ago shortly after the Crimea annexation--that was when the price started to move.

    Still not sure if in fact the KSA moves are targeting the US due to their coming online with light crude out of fracking which I doubt as the US crude from fracking is a very good quality light crude somewhere above WTI and under Brent or truly targeted against Iran their regional hegemon competitor and Russia for supporting both Iran and Assad.

  16. #436
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    Default The battle for the Siberian harvest

    An Open Democracy article by a Russian and paints a dire picture:
    I was amazed the machinery was working! They were harvesting the grain from under the snow!’Kholmanskikh was telling the truth..... in the Kurgan Region, for example, where 40% of the grain to be harvested is lying under snow...
    Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...berian-harvest
    davidbfpo

  17. #437
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    Ruble down this morning by 3% already.

    Now Putin is trying desperately to protect the oligarchs income and yet it will destroy his own economy due to lost taxes that have to then come out of the pocket of the average Russian.

    Putin frees Gazprom from taxes for 15 years, raises taxes on small business 7.5%
    https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/539352807392808960

  18. #438
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    With the de facto devaluing of the ruble current inflation rate is running about 41%.

    Putin has about one week left tot make a critical decision as he cannot stop this spiral dance of fiscal death--go for a military victory in eastern Ukraine--- and risk even more sanctions or focus on his own economy?

    No relief: Ruble takes another step down, to 53.17/$ and 66.28/euro

    Ruble is following the exact drop rate as the price of oil---

  19. #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    With the de facto devaluing of the ruble current inflation rate is running about 41%.

    Putin has about one week left tot make a critical decision as he cannot stop this spiral dance of fiscal death--go for a military victory in eastern Ukraine--- and risk even more sanctions or focus on his own economy?

    No relief: Ruble takes another step down, to 53.17/$ and 66.28/euro

    Ruble is following the exact drop rate as the price of oil---
    It just keeps on falling---and Putin just stated it is good though for the economy?

    Hard to follow the ruble today. New low is 53.4109 against the USD.

  20. #440
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    In some cases you will reach success only through almost heroic effort, but if something makes little if any economic sense you have to ask yourself Pyotr Shumakov's question: 'Who needs this “heroic harvest?’

    If you are forced to do heroic deeds very often in business to just tread water then you are doing something wrong or are in a bad spot in a bad business.

    Kholmanskikh, Putin's envoy, no doubt would have enjoyed the heroic spectacle. But one of Omsk’s oldest farmers, Pyotr Shumakov, sees this heroism as destructive. ‘They are ruining people and equipment. What’s the point of harvesting grain from under the snow? To make it usable, they’ll have to run the grain through a dryer three or four times. And that costs money. And where do you find a dryer anyway?’ Indeed, the region is short of dryers and other equipment. Vitaly Erlikh admits that it’s not even a question of individual farms. For instance, there is not a single dryer in the whole of the Kolosovsky district, which covers an area of almost 5,000 square kilometres. ‘And if the grain is damp, the silos reduce their price per tonne by 1,000 roubles (£13). So you end up burning a lot more diesel. Who needs this “heroic harvest”?’

    Pyotr Shumakov was still to begin harvesting his 18 hectares (45 acres) on 3 November. Waiting for the snow to melt and the fields to dry out, Shumakov had been measuring the moisture content of his grain on a daily basis. And all the other farmers he knew were doing the same. For them, it’s not a question of heroism: ‘We don’t need all this showing off. We need to survive.’
    It has been also obvious for a while that not only the farmer in this area have a hard time to get a credit or to serve their old one. I remember that in a short piece from Moscow after the second round of Western sanctions they interviewed people in the market and then a farmer. The consumers were almost elated by the 'superior' quality of Russian food, making the switch to the rather gloomy small farmer even more marked. The latter talked pretty much about the same issues, lack of credit and thus little investment. While some with enough capital and possibly connections will expand production it will be hard for the small and medium farms to follow suite in similar fashion.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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