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Thread: The Russian economy (catch all)

  1. #581
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    From Interfax today:

    13:37 Retail lending growth in Russia could be almost zero - Central Bank

    13:23 Double rating downgrade not critical for Russian bank bonds - Central Bank

    13:20 CB to quote ruble at 67.1506 rubles/$1 and 76.2629 rubles/EUR1 on January 29

    12:48 RUSSIAN MINFIN CONSIDERING CUTTING RATES OR VOLUME OF FX DEPOSIT AUCTIONS, OR DROPPING THESE ALTOGETHER - MOISEYEV

    12:47 RETAIL LENDING, EXCLUDING MORTGAGES, TO HAVE ALMOST ZERO GROWTH IN BASELINE SCENARIO – SIMANOVSKY

    11:49 Russian regional debt grows 20% to over 2 tln rubles in 2014

  2. #582
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    There is certainly a torrent of bad news coming in for the Russian economy. As for many financial and economic data can seem steril and cold to many I think it is useful to look at it sometimes from more individual level:

    Living Standards Slide for Russia's Struggling Pensioners

    "In the 1990s there was nothing in the shops but fridges were full," Lisitsyn said, referring to the collapse of the Soviet Union which shattered supply lines and the command economy, forcing many to rely on home-grown produce.

    "Now it's the other way round — there's everything in the shops but fridges are all but empty," said the former military officer and radio factory worker.

    Sitting at a small formica table in the kitchen of his two-room flat in a Moscow suburb, Lisitsyn said he struggles to keep up with price rises for food and medicine, saying sometimes he walks into a shop "only to walk out again."

    According to the article the average monthly pension in 2014 was around 10.000 rubles or 150$ at the current exchange rate which is of course amazingly little by Western standards. In general high inflation in basic stuff like food impact mostly the poor and in this case old, although the high rural proportion might reduce that connection in Russia to some degree. But living in the many little villages in very basic housing comes of course also at a price. The pensioners rappresent somewhat under a third of the Russian population.

    It's a trend not lost on Putin, whose role as a protector of stability, social conservatism and generous state spending has won a strong following among the elderly. Their loyalty is now being tested by a financial crisis triggered by low oil prices and Western sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine.
    I focused more on food prices and hadn't thought so much about medicine, which is mostly imported.
    Last edited by Firn; 01-28-2015 at 01:19 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  3. #583
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    Russians perturbed at price rise, ruble fall - poll
    13:56 January 28, 2015 Interfax

    Rising food and everyday goods prices seem to be the biggest problem for Russians, at least, 77 percent say so (74 percent in Moscow), Levada Center told Interfax.
    The respondents are no less concerned about the ruble fall (65 percent across the country and 70 percent in Moscow) and the performance of outpatient clinics and hospitals (62 percent on the whole, and 63 percent in Moscow).
    http://rbth.co.uk/news/2015/01/28/ru...oll_43208.html)

  4. #584
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    $Ruble sinking like Russian submarine Kursk.
    Ruble's Slide Resumes on #Ukraine Sanctions Concern as Oil Drops


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...n-as-oil-drops …

  5. #585
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    Russian Ruble about to hit 69 to the US dollar as oil sinks to a 6-year low.
    pic.twitter.com/x74JnAow9s

    New EU Sanctions Loom Over #Russia's Struggling Ruble
    http://tmt-go.ru/515083

    Russians blame the Central Bank, not their government's actions in #Ukraine for the current crisis. #RussianLogic http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...le/514979.html …

    Extreme shortages evidently in Moscow:
    Fearing sanctions (?), Russia's PACE delegation took light bulbs, toilet paper when they cleared out their offices:
    http://goo.gl/yodvOv

  6. #586
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    From Interfax today referencing economy:

    12:17 Central Bank pulls AkademRusBank license

    12:02 Rosneft requesting 1.3 tln rubles for 28 projects from NWF - ministry (Part 3)

    12:00 Investment may decline over 10% in 2015; consumer demand - 7%-9% - Ulyukayev (Part 2)

    10:56 Naftogaz suing Gazprom for $6.2 billion for transit reduction, adaptation of contract to EU terms

    10:46 Public procurement from "friends and relatives" of high-ranking officials should be stopped - Kremlin official

    10:23 GAZPROM MUST SETTLE 390 MLN EURO UNICREDIT LOAN IN 2015 AT EURIBOR PLUS 2.75% - COMPANY

  7. #587
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    Without China's help, Russia would already be having trouble financing war in Ukraine, @GordonGChang writes:
    http://goo.gl/c4GKHC

    It is estimated that Russia is spending approximately 20 to 29M USDs per day during the fighting and that since August 2014.

    Simple math places the approximate cost since August at well over 3.6B USDs as the low end and 5.4B at the high end.

  8. #588
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    https://meduza.io/news/2015/01/29/gl...kam-barstvovat …

    Putin’s chief of staff says state corruption & officials mooching off the people is a threat to Russian sovereignty.

    Mooching seems to be the new approved Russian term for corruption at the highest levels.

  9. #589
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    VTB bank buys 400b rubles of Rosneft bonds. Hidden state subsidy for "current expenses," analyst says:

    http://goo.gl/K6eeCA

  10. #590
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    Rubel now appears to be in a death spiral and the end is still not in sight--if a 2% rate reduction caused this much damage.

    Russian economy is in deep trouble if a drop of interest rate from a whopping 17% to still extreme 15% makes the Rouble sink like a stone.

    Russian central bank cuts interest rates, trying to walk back the body blow it dealt to Russia's economy in December. http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-...tes-1422614890 …

    Agence France-Presse ✔ @AFP
    #BREAKING Ruble accelerates fall after central bank makes surprise interest rate cut

    FT calls cut in interest rates 'a dangerous move by the CBR' - http://www.ft.com/fastft/270382 Result: sharp fall in rouble: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/m...8/intraday.stm …

  11. #591
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    Interfax on the Rubel from today:

    13:49 DOLLAR HITS 71 RUBLES, EURO ABOVE 80 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE DECEMBER FOLLOWING DROP IN CBR KEY RATE

    13:49 Dollar, euro soar against ruble following unexpected change in Central Bank's key rate

    13:47 Central Bank lowers key rate to 15% from 17% pa

    13:47 Russian GDP to have annual decline of 3.2% in H1 2015 - Central Bank

    12:55 PART OF RUSSIA'S ANTI-CRISIS RESERVE CAN BE USED TO SUPPORT REGIONAL BANKS THAT ISSUE MORTGAGES – SHUVALOV

    12:55 Shuvalov: winter crop situation 'challenging' in many regions

    12:00 Russian gov't orders ministries to prevent excessive rise in prices for fertilizers, combustibles

  12. #592
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    RUSSIA NEWS SERVICE @EINRussiaNews
    #Russia gives $3 billion Crimea bridge contract to #Putin ally http://s.einnews.com/rskKHi52Be

    Rouble tumbling again... last time it was at these levels the CBR felt the need to RAISE rates pic.twitter.com/aFDIpYRxsl

  13. #593
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    Morgan Stanley predicts 5.6% drop in Ru GDP 2015
    http://tass.ru/en/economy/774388 …

    The oil crash has wiped $393 billion off energy company balance sheets
    http://bloom.bg/1yKuqno

  14. #594
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    Morgan Stanley has a rather scary prediction for the Russian economy - it's doomed #Russia http://www.businessinsider.com/morga...-doomed-2015-1

    Putin Fingerprints Seen All Over Surprise Interest-Rate Reversal http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-over-politics

    Why Russia’s grip on Europe’s gas markets is weakening. Russia losing its levers one by one. http://on.wsj.com/1BvJAiu pic.twitter.com/n2LMecmc1t
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 01-31-2015 at 09:43 AM.

  15. #595
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    Russian Nationalist Demands Soviet Exchange Rates to Solve Ruble Crisis. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...is/515168.html … pic.twitter.com/f7fwwQI9dz

    Russian businesses in great trouble, $77 billion foreign corporate debt to pay in 2015. http://www.businessinsider.com/heres...trouble-2015-1 … pic.twitter.com/5Yj2B1UG1I

    As crisis increases, vodka prices decrease. “@KermlinRussia: Сынок, теперь ты будешь больше пить: pic.twitter.com/DfVCOKx84i

  16. #596
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    Sberbank starts limiting customer withdrawals from their own accounts.

    Today other Russian banks started following the example from Sberbank.


    Russische Sberbank limitiert Bargeldauszahlungen. Andere wollen folgen.

  17. #597
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    #Ruble falls again at #Moscow Exchange: 1USD=68.79RUB, 1EUR=78.12RUB http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/1116575.html pic.twitter.com/K19uRNR42b

  18. #598
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Krugman adds a fresh macro angle to the debate:

    But let’s not talk about Latin America. Instead, let’s talk about Russia. Putin’s thrashing, his evident decision to reject advice from economists who tell him anything he doesn’t want to hear, feel very familiar to me and I’m sure many others who’ve followed Latin America over the decades. Basically, it sounds a lot like good old-fashioned macroeconomic populism.

    ...

    So Putin seems to have brought something new, or at least formerly rare, into the world of economic policy: macroeconomic cronyism, an effort to suspend the laws on economics on behalf, not of the broad populace, but a tiny group of well connected malefactors of great wealth. Innovation!
    Obviously the conyism is an old story, but it's mix is a new take on an old fallacy. Perhaps the worst luck for the Russian citzien was that Putin was so lucky with the high commodity prices. Those were of course a massive boost for the Russian economy and helped the country and it's citizens to get high growth and economic stability but it allowed the leader to get credit for poor personal performance and to take the Russian economy far along a dangerous path into the wrong direction...
    Last edited by Firn; 02-05-2015 at 11:03 AM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  19. #599
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    Number of Western Foreigners in Russia Drops by Half a Million.

    Note in includes tourists, still it is a very steep drop by any standards.

    The total number of Western foreigners in Russia, including tourists, reportedly dropped in January by about half a million year-on-year amid deepening political tensions and a deteriorating domestic economy.

    There were 1.23 million Westerners in the country last month, down from 1.73 million in the same month last year, news agency RBC reported Wednesday, citing the Federal Migration Service.
    Western workers in Russia have been overall important cogs in the Russian economy, especially with it's interactions with Western companies. For the Russian demographics more important is the 70% crash in the number of non-Western migrant workers. Their immigration has been one of the two big reasons for the slight Russian population growth and have greatly enlarged the labour pool especially for the lower bracket of the job market.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  20. #600
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    The human dimension of the economic downturn and various new laws help to understand the motivations behind the stark numbers. This should have a considerable impact on the Russian labour market and demographics if the recession is deep and harsher laws remain and get applied.
    Last edited by Firn; 02-06-2015 at 12:36 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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