Bill---to answer the following questions---these two paragraphs are to the point and go a little further than your questions.
"Still, this will be a different cold war than the last one. For all its tough rhetoric, the Soviet Union of the Brezhnev era was a tired, conservative power. Putin's Russia is different. It is bursting with negative energy, hatred of the outside world and enthusiasm for confrontation.
It's a throwback not so much to the cold war diplomacy of missile treaties and international alliances, as to the Soviet Union's revolutionary birth, when the new Bolshevik government in Moscow actively undermined its enemies in the West."
The comments are actually very to the point.
1. After the poor performance of the Russian Army in 2008 in Georgia there was a massive investment into the Russian military as a whole and today through their 2020 plans they are far better trained, equipped with new weapon systems that are superior to ours in many ways, have a professional fulltime standing expeditionary army backed by a draftee army.
1a. They have become far more aggressive towards US military units in neutral zones---far more aggressive than under the Cold War days.
2. They developed their new UW strategy for this force.-and it is clear and concise.
3. They have completely modernized their nuclear forces and will add two heavy ballistic missiles in 2016 to the inventory and have violated the standing INF. US has an aging fore that is in need of modernization but Congress has shown an unwillingness to fund.
4. They have a new 2010 nuclear use doctrine to support this force-and it is clear and concise.
5. The have over the last 20 years used natural gas/oil as an economic force/weapon and built the pipeline delivery systems to support this economic weapons system. they are trying to get the EU to recognize their form of state run economics vs the EU free competition.
6. They are now expanding their naval forces and acquiring berthing rights around the world.
7. They are now flying into areas they never flew in during even the Cold War days and in a more aggressive manner.
8. These Russian steps are actually being matched by the same type of military/political/economic moves by the Chinese who are especially focused on Africa.
9. Both Russia and the Chinese are actively reinterpreting older treaties and agreements and are actually now simply declaring them null and void if it fits their interests something neither would have done 10 years ago---an interesting question would be why now? I think they both view the US as a waning power that has not backed up a single red line they have placed in the last 20 years
Yes the Russians are approaching the rest of the world from a state to state perspective and the US from a population perspective---but does the rule of law and good governance outweigh cheap gas and the perspective on investing in Russian and Chinese economic development opportunities for economically less powerful but influential countries in say the ME or in the Far East. Or does Russian and Chinese investment in say Africa and the ME appear to be more attractive than western investments---yes it does.
In some aspects while the rule of law and good governance resonate with populations in the end it still is all about economic development, employment, and personal security ---so yes the Maidan echoes those demands--but when implementing say the IMF and EU economic restructuring in exchange for billions of USDs those same populations will suffer and suffer badly until they adjust so in the end does the Russian/Chinese state economic systems appear more attractive to a state or the population or actually to both?
I would argue they do especially in the ME and Africa.
I would also argue that since both the Russians and Chinese view especially the US in the same light and with the same distrust they will in effect be nudged by world politics to work together which is why the initial gas deal between them is so important---it is about image/politics, and not about economics.
I would though take it a step further and say Russia is also interested in neutralizing both the EU/NATO for different reasons that are not the same as with the US.
What are the implications of this? Are we going to see a new type of confrontation between the U.S. and the USSR (oops I mean Russia), where Russia is engages states and the US engages populaces? Obviously the Russians desire to limit and even turn back the scale of U.S. influence globally, as does China. Will they form a coalition? Should the U.S. defense strategy change based on this?[/QUOTE]
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