Russian Unconventional Strategy

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan---here are the eight phases of the new Russian UW strategy doctrine and then ask yourself---there is no perceived threat to the US and or US global interests especially when the new Chinese military doctrine "Three Stages of Warfare" mirror a similar tone and theme.

Now look at the phases and ask yourself---how many and which ones have seen being implemented in the Ukraine and Crimea? Then ask which ones can be used in the Baltics, Moldavia and Georgia?

The phases of new-generation war can be schematized as (Tchekinov & Bogdanov,
2013, pp. 15-22):
First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological, ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).
Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies y leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.
Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.
Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic, and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.
Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous airforce harassment, combined with the use of high precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery, and weapons based on new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).
Eighth Phase: roll over the remaining points of resistance and destroy surviving enemy units by special operations conducted by reconnaissance units to spot which enemy units have survived and transmit their coordinates to the attacker's missile and artillery units; fire barrages to annihilate the defender's resisting army units by effective advanced weapons; airdrop
operations to surround points of resistance; and territory mopping-up operations by
ground troops.

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan---this was written recently about the new Russian UW strategy which is being practiced by Russia in the Crimea and Ukraine.

See if it does not indicate a underlying long term strategic threat to the US:

In other words, the Russians have placed the idea of influence at the very center of their operational planning and used all possible levers to achieve this: skillful internal communications; deception operations; psychological operations and well-constructed external communications. Crucially, they have demonstrated an innate understanding of the three key target audiences and their probably behavior: the Russian speaking majority in Crimea; the
Ukrainian government; the international community, specifically NATO and the EU. Armed with this information they knew what to do, when and what the outcomes were likely to be,demonstrating that that the ancient Soviet art of reflexive control is alive and well in the Kremlin.

This is very relevant to understanding its strategic significance, since it is the operationalization of a new form of warfare that cannot be characterized as a military campaign in the classic sense of the term.

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan--this goes to what I have been saying--is the double standard that Russia uses in their UW strategy a perceived threat against the US if it is directed in support to their political war with the Ukraine.

Example of double standards and not called such by the West.

Today from RIA concerning "humanitarian" assistance.
MOSCOW, June 11 (RIA Novosti) – Russia is sending humanitarian aid to eastern Ukraine in cooperation with the independence supporters, as the Kiev authorities are not collaborating with Moscow in that field, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday.

“We are trying to send humanitarian aid to those who did not leave the military zone, and late May we have sent a special request to the Ukrainian authorities to get the permission to deliver such aid,” Lavrov said.

Today this from the Ukrainian media:
This from the Ukrainian side concerning the same Russian "humanitarian" assistance---notice what items the Russian government is sending the citizens of Donbas---evidently not emergency food , blankets, or water---as they were not mentioned by the Russian FM.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitted that Russia is assisting separatists in the Donbas. He stated this at a meeting with the OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier.

Lavrov said that Russia supplies “humanitarian aid” with the assistance of militants. Diplomat Lavrov did not specify what type of “humanitarian aid” it is.

But the warlord of terrorists I .Girkin (Strelok) published the plain truth (or rather, almost all). Here is what he wrote in the social media: “Humanitarian aid from Russia has finally reached Slovyansk yesterday. Our special thanks for bulletproof helmets (see photo, green, brand new, gleaming) of a high degree of protection. This is exactly what our guys are missing when they crawl in the trenches under a sniper fire.”

According to the Ukrainian State Border Agency only last week there were several breakthroughs of mechanized armed terrorist groups from the Russian Federation. Army trucks, armored vehicles, weapons and ammunition were part of the equipment that got through.

So again is the game Russia is playing under their new UW strategy published in 2013 a perceived threat to US global interests-IMO yes it is

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan---again another example of a Russian military decision that in effect is a threat against US interests as well as NATO interests since you asked for examples. Again this decision is being driven by their new military doctrine.

IMO I would see this as a challenge/threat to both NATO and the US.

This is referencing the French sale of there Mistral helicopter carriers to the Russians.

"Meanwhile, current Russian statements indicate that the military apparently has changed its mind about where to deploy its new Mistral-class vessels.

Originally they were to be based at Vladivostok for deployment with Russia's Pacific Fleet. Now, however, the Navy evidently wants to deploy the first two ships in the Black Sea where they could threaten every littoral state in the Balkans, Ukraine, Turkey, and the Caucasus. The potential deployment of the latter two ships in the Baltic Sea has also quite reasonably aroused intense protests from Poland and the Baltic States, all of whom readily remember their many long years spent under Moscow's control.

In this context it becomes clear that from Moscow's standpoint it is winning or at least incurring acceptable costs. Meanwhile the West's behavior merely confirms the official Russian diagnosis that the West is weak, corrupt, divided, and irresolute."

[Ulenspiegel]

Dayuhan---again another example of a Russian military decision that in effect is a threat against US interests as well as NATO interests since you asked for examples. Again this decision is being driven by their new military doctrine.

IMO I would see this as a challenge/threat to both NATO and the US.

This is referencing the French sale of there Mistral helicopter carriers to the Russians.

"Meanwhile, current Russian statements indicate that the military apparently has changed its mind about where to deploy its new Mistral-class vessels.

Originally they were to be based at Vladivostok for deployment with Russia's Pacific Fleet. Now, however, the Navy evidently wants to deploy the first two ships in the Black Sea where they could threaten every littoral state in the Balkans, Ukraine, Turkey, and the Caucasus. The potential deployment of the latter two ships in the Baltic Sea has also quite reasonably aroused intense protests from Poland and the Baltic States, all of whom readily remember their many long years spent under Moscow's control.

In this context it becomes clear that from Moscow's standpoint it is winning or at least incurring acceptable costs. Meanwhile the West's behavior merely confirms the official Russian diagnosis that the West is weak, corrupt, divided, and irresolute."

Sorry, if Russia pose not only in your OPINION a strategic thread to Europe, you should be able to explain in a coherent way, copy paste does not count, how Russia could pull of a successful startegy when it has a waker miltary, a waker economy and a political model that is highly unattractive for most us poor souls in Europe.

At the moment I only see some tactical stunts but not a coherent strategy, and it is for me as German interesting that you sell me this as thread. :-)

[kaur]

Ulenspiegel, you should tell Ukrainians and Georgians that they are just victims of some tactical stunts and there is no reason to worry If you see no problem telling them this, then I'd like to hear your definition of "tactical stunt".

[OUTLAW 09]

Sorry, if Russia pose not only in your OPINION a strategic thread to Europe, you should be able to explain in a coherent way, copy paste does not count, how Russia could pull of a successful startegy when it has a waker miltary, a waker economy and a political model that is highly unattractive for most us poor souls in Europe.

At the moment I only see some tactical stunts but not a coherent strategy, and it is for me as German interesting that you sell me this as thread. :-)

Are you actually sure you want to maintain the statement that Russia has a "weaker" military ---are you sure you want to maintain your statement that Russia has a "weaker" economy when all the German companies apply pressure to Merkel to not cut into their Russian profits and their Russian investments with further sanctions.

If you think the German Army is equal to the current newly modernized Russian Army then you need to Google a little bit better. Then Google the following---new Russian nuclear doctrine 2010---then try to state Russia is "weak".

If you think Russian is conducting "stunts" then why did three T72s cross today from Russian into eastern Ukraine when Putin told the Germans and Europeans he was "securing" the Russia/Ukrainian border.

So Putin was telling the entire EU/NATO the "truth" that the Russian Ukrainian border was "secure".

If you want to understand the current Russian strategy then Google "New Russian Generation Warfare".

If you cannot find it then I can paste it for you---read the strategy and then tell me there is no coherent strategy and that is indeed a thread.

It was written by a Latvian military researcher---tell him that there is no strategy.