Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan
I think you cherry pick these documents and distort them to justify an elevated perception of threat.
One consistent pattern in 'analyzing' the 'threat' from Russia is to simultaneously elevate the threat posed to the United States and to diminish the abilities of Russia to resist U.S. capabilities and strategies. In one post, we hear about the great danger faced by the United States by Russia, and then in the next, how if the Obama administration would only lift the proverbial finger, the Russian campaign would immediately collapse.

The truth is that the military strength of Russia does not come close to that of the United States - and even less so the combined strength of NATO. The difference is that Russia's national security establishment is more disciplined in identifying its political goals and executing plans to implement them. Compare the political outcomes of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars with Russia's Georgia and Ukraine interventions - which state came closer to accomplishing its political objectives? How many people believed Washington's IO about democracy in Iraq versus Moscow's IO about Crimean desire for unification with Russia? Moscow has been smarter than Washington in recent history in its use of force, and this success aggravates those in Washington to no end.

Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore
Russian aggression unchallenged in the Ukraine threatens our interests globally in subtle and not so subtle ways by changing international norms.
By default, challengers to the status quo will seek to change international norms. Since power is relative, we have to ask if American power is declining or if Russian power is growing (or both). The Russians are clearly discontent with their lot in the international system, so it's not surprising that Moscow exploits opportunities to advance its position. The problem, then, is not the change in the status quo in itself, but Russia's discontent with the status quo. Why is Moscow discontent and what incentives can Washington offer to purchase its cooperation? If Moscow cannot be coerced into compliance, then negotiation is the only viable alternative. What do the Russians want and does Washington have the ability and/or willingness to give it to them?