Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[carl]

I suppose all that depends on where things stand in 2017. I was thinking more along the lines of summer, fall, and winter of 2014.

I am not sure how ISIS/Iraq/AQ/Iran struggle turns into a threat of war between Japan and China, I am not willing to rule out the possibility of some strange involvement. My gut is that Uighurs may become embolden by ISIS, but I don't see how Japan plays into it. Stranger things have happened.

Still, in the short term, I am all for a wait and see attitude.

The situation between Red China and Japan stands on its own. All this stuff happens to be happening at the same time.

We are all bound to wait and see at least until the beginning of 2017. The current administration will do nothing but wait and see.

My point is nothing but thinking and figuring can be done until then and I would be pleased if you professional soldier guys started contemplating.

[Bill Moore]

The situation between Red China and Japan stands on its own. All this stuff happens to be happening at the same time.

We are all bound to wait and see at least until the beginning of 2017. The current administration will do nothing but wait and see.

My point is nothing but thinking and figuring can be done until then and I would be pleased if you professional soldier guys started contemplating.

Carl, your point is valid. Unfortunately most military and policy types are taught to look at problems locally within defined area, or focus on specific groups. It is the weakness in our center of gravity approach to planning where we conveniently ignore the whole and how the pieces interact intentionally and unintentionally. Most countries will exploit emerging opportunities to put their adversaries at a disadvantage. Usually they'll do so below the radar, but Russia just changed its relationship with North Korea and started exercising with the Chinese navy. They also are flying bombers off our coast and challenging our Aircraft.

Any Russian or Chinese support to any actor in the middle east is part of a strategic chess game based on long term strategic interests. Our military on the other hand only sees terrorists and wonder what they can accomplish with air power. Bomb ISIS until it hurts, but please do so in a way that is advantageous to our long term strategic interests.

[ganulv]

Bomb ISIS until it hurts, but please do so in a way that is advantageous to our long term strategic interests.

Seems to me that ISIS has a nice AfPak situation going for itself knowing that Assad is going to cry bloody murder if there’s a U.S. drone strike inside Syrian airspace that he can’t deny happened. I can’t imagine that that would be worth the long term effects it might have.

[AdamG]

"The army forces threw away their weapons and changed their clothes and left their vehicles and left the city," said Mahmud Nuri, a displaced Mosul resident. "We didn't see anyone fire a shot."

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Secur...moment-in-Iraq

[OUTLAW 09]

Carl, your point is valid. Unfortunately most military and policy types are taught to look at problems locally within defined area, or focus on specific groups. It is the weakness in our center of gravity approach to planning where we conveniently ignore the whole and how the pieces interact intentionally and unintentionally. Most countries will exploit emerging opportunities to put their adversaries at a disadvantage. Usually they'll do so below the radar, but Russia just changed its relationship with North Korea and started exercising with the Chinese navy. They also are flying bombers off our coast and challenging our Aircraft.

Any Russian or Chinese support to any actor in the middle east is part of a strategic chess game based on long term strategic interests. Our military on the other hand only sees terrorists and wonder what they can accomplish with air power. Bomb ISIS until it hurts, but please do so in a way that is advantageous to our long term strategic interests.

Bill--amen to the last sentence--extremely accurate comment to strategic long term foreign relations by the Russians and Chinese.

By the way--surprised we have not totally shifted the entire drone fleet to the skies over Iraq---we fully understand how to fight an air war with just armed drones and recon drones as hunter/killer teams since Libya.

IMO the US has not even begun to fully understand the latest Russian and Chinese strategic doctrinal shifts which are a direct challenge to the US in coming years.

[JWing]

Not only did ISIS ship a bunch of captured equipment to Syria but Jabhat al-Nusra went into Ninewa today and grabbed some stuff as well.

And yes ISIS is heading towards Baghdad. Their main goal is to overthrow the government. They seemed to have forgotten all the militias with Iranian support that defeated them last time. This time Baghdad is even more Shiite then the last civil war.

[OUTLAW 09]

Not only did ISIS ship a bunch of captured equipment to Syria but Jabhat al-Nusra went into Ninewa today and grabbed some stuff as well.

And yes ISIS is heading towards Baghdad. Their main goal is to overthrow the government. They seemed to have forgotten all the militias with Iranian support that defeated them last time. This time Baghdad is even more Shiite then the last civil war.

JWing---if they are going they have discovered something the West missed--and it might be an accurate assessment by ISIS---there is not longer a deep pool of aggressive JAM/SG groups left in Baghdad---they are all in Syria---Malaki is trying to arm Baghdad residents---subtle why would be a good question.

It really does look like Malaki was being a bit big headed when he suggested/"allowed" JAM and the SGs to head to Syria in support to Assad and at the beckoning of Iran---not only were there good experienced fighters sent--arms and munitions as well. Iran is now forced to reinforce Assad via the air routes as ground transportation has all but been stopped by ISIS.

Now with the Army folding and definitely not having the stomach for a street to street fight those Shia forces in Syria now have to make the long ground run from Syria but with ISIS controlling the routes --virtually impossible to swing back to Baghdad in a timely fashion.

Looks like he is being massively criticized now by leading Shia political types for actually provoking the Sunni response and his heavy hand with them --yesterday the Iraqi parliament refused to give him is martial law bill which would have made him a virtual dictator even more so than Saddam.

[OUTLAW 09]

New ISIS record ----and now they are financially far more wealthy than the mothership AQ.

When they took Mosul they raided the Iraqi National Bank there immediately---taken was a total sum of get this;

380 million Euros or roughly 500M USDs.

A comfortable war chest if one asks me now they can go on a world wide recruiting binge and actually pay for it.

Their previous record for releasing prisoners at 4500 seems to have been outdistanced by this bank robbery.

[davidbfpo]

A short analysis via the BBC and it ends with:

Mr Maliki has emerged as something approaching the Shia equivalent of Saddam Hussein, and is as much a threat to Iraq as ISIS.

Iraq desperately needs a truly national leader and one who puts the nation above himself.


Without one, ISIS may become a lasting enclave and regional threat - dividing Iraq into Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish sections - or drag Iraq back to the worst days of its civil war and create another Syria in Iraq.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27801680

[carl]

Carl, your point is valid. Unfortunately most military and policy types are taught to look at problems locally within defined area, or focus on specific groups. It is the weakness in our center of gravity approach to planning where we conveniently ignore the whole and how the pieces interact intentionally and unintentionally.

Our military on the other hand only sees terrorists and wonder what they can accomplish with air power. Bomb ISIS until it hurts, but please do so in a way that is advantageous to our long term strategic interests.

Good. That is the kind of thinking I am talking about. You have identified a weakness in the training of the people we may be charging with thinking about these things. So people who haven't had their minds locked in a box by training had better get to cogitating and we should start listening to them.

Your point about airpower highlights is another bit of thought that is useful. We have been airplanes this airplanes that for too long.

[Bill Moore]

Does anyone know why the Iraqi military didn't resist? Maliki claims it was a conspiracy, and in this case that makes sense, but who were the conspirators and why?

Wild spectulating on my part.

- this ties into the Arab coalition trying to oust Assad. Supposedly Maliki has been helping Assad with his Iranian buddies.

- a state actor out of the region enabled ISIS and paid off Iraqi military leaders to not resist to put Iraqi oil at risk to strengthen their position in the global market, which makes boycotting them impractical.

I have absolutely no supporting evidence for either hypothesis, but for the better equipped and trained Iraqi army to just drop weapons and flee due to a irregular force advance doesn't add up.

[JMA]

Personally I have no idea, but here is an opinion:

Why the Iraqi army collapsed

Does anyone know why the Iraqi military didn't resist? Maliki claims it was a conspiracy, and in this case that makes sense, but who were the conspirators and why?

Wild spectulating on my part.

- this ties into the Arab coalition trying to oust Assad. Supposedly Maliki has been helping Assad with his Iranian buddies.

- a state actor out of the region enabled ISIS and paid off Iraqi military leaders to not resist to put Iraqi oil at risk to strengthen their position in the global market, which makes boycotting them impractical.

I have absolutely no supporting evidence for either hypothesis, but for the better equipped and trained Iraqi army to just drop weapons and flee due to a irregular force advance doesn't add up.

[JWing]

The story that seems to be the most believable is that the generals in Mosul ordered a retreat but with no specific instructions on how to conduct one. Then they jumped in some helicopters and took off to Irbil. The regular forces heard about it and simply broke. The hierarchical and top down structure of the ISF meant that only a senior officer could try to rally the forces and they had left. When that news spread other units they bugged out mostly before the insurgents even showed up. There have been continued breaks in morale but also some examples of the ISF standing and fighting and even launching offensives right now.

[JWing]

That last comment was only about the specific breakdown in Mosul that spread to the rest of central Iraq. If you want to go to the heart of the matter the Iraqi security forces are a hollowed out institution. Corruption coup proofing by Maliki etc are the root problems.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Does anyone know why the Iraqi military didn't resist? Maliki claims it was a conspiracy, and in this case that makes sense, but who were the conspirators and why?

They have no dog in the fight. They are not really loyal to a nation, only to their clan and religious sect. Based on those factors, they have no reason to risk their lives. Hence, the turn and run.

[carl]

It is interesting that ISIS did a lot of targeted killings and assassinations of people in the ISF over the past few years. This apparently did a lot to hurt the morale of the ISF. The reason it is interesting is that is exact.y the kind of thing the VC did in South Vietnam those many years ago. In fact that was what Fall was talking about when he spoke of one side outgoverning the other; it is hard to govern when all the administrators for one's side are dead.

So regardless of how fashions in countering insurgencies change, insurgencies don't change so much. They all seem to make great use of assassination

[Bill Moore]

It is interesting that ISIS did a lot of targeted killings and assassinations of people in the ISF over the past few years. This apparently did a lot to hurt the morale of the ISF. The reason it is interesting is that is exact.y the kind of thing the VC did in South Vietnam those many years ago. In fact that was what Fall was talking about when he spoke of one side outgoverning the other; it is hard to govern when all the administrators for one's side are dead.

So regardless of how fashions in countering insurgencies change, insurgencies don't change so much. They all seem to make great use of assassination

This is real UW which we're restricted from doing. Fall provided a lo t of good insights that are as appreciated as they should be.

[Ray]

Obama says no combat troops to Iraq; U.S. weighs airstrikes

No troops to Iraq, but other options are being considered.

That was President Barack Obama's message Friday in response to the lightning advance by Sunni militant fighters in Iraq that could threaten the government of Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki........

Pressure for the United States to provide military support to Iraq's struggling government has increased, with conservative Republicans blaming Obama for creating a security vacuum in 2011 by pulling out U.S. troops.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/13/us/iraq-us/

What is the predominant opinion in the US about how to solve the issue and stop this 'invasion'?

Obama cannot go back on the pledge to end US involvement in Iraq.

I wonder how many Americans, at the time when Obama made the pledge and acted on it, would endorse the Republican claim that Obama created a 'security vacuum' implying that he should not have withdrawn.

The manner in which the ISIS is moving in, the greater the delay in acting, would only make the situation wretched.

If no troops are to be used, then should Drones not be used before Iraq is lost to the fundamentalists?

The uncertainty as to what will happen to Iraq is only pushing up oil prices and that would lead to inflation.

Uncertainty over Iraq pushes oil price to three-month high
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...isis-militants

It will also water down the effect the Western sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. Russian oil will be in high demand to offset the loss of Iraqi oil, which has the second largest oilfields in the world, with the added advantage of being 'sweet' oil.

But he clearly indicated that plans are being drawn up to give support to the Iraqi military. That would most likely be aerial support and there were reports of the Pentagon preparing to order the George HW Bush aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf this weekend.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...t-9535810.html

What effect would one aircraft carrier have?

[carl]

Ray:

The drones will be of no use unless they can be directed to a target. Unless we put people on the ground in Iraq to help with that they would be useless. Mr. Obama won't put people on the ground, but he might send in various drones to make 6 o'clock news strikes. So I would not be surprised to see us send in drones whose missions are to look good for the camera.

[Ray]

Ray:

The drones will be of no use unless they can be directed to a target. Unless we put people on the ground in Iraq to help with that they would be useless. Mr. Obama won't put people on the ground, but he might send in various drones to make 6 o'clock news strikes. So I would not be surprised to see us send in drones whose missions are to look good for the camera.

I presume it could be done the same way as it is being done in Pakistan.

I daresay that the US withdrew from Iraq, after a high cost in human and financial terms, would not have cultivated and organised a humint that is active in Iraq.

Therefore, would it be incorrect to surmise that the US can use drones, even if they do not wish to put boots on the ground.

What do you think is the aim of sending the aircraft carrier?

Hoping for a commodore Perry repeat?