Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[jcustis]

Absolutely agree on the silver lining aspect you mention, but what if they do enough damage by simply ensuring the territory acquired remains un- or under-governed space, and never aim to take on responsibility for governance, essential services, and the like?

I am reminded of the time in the end of April 2013 when my company was tasked to round up a group of local toughs who were terrorizing a village and causing all sorts of ills for a sheik a few miles to the west of Diwaniyah. He claimed they were stealing vehicles previously owned by the government, shooting up his small town, and generally terrorizing the area.

We drove off and got to the spot in short order, finding several government-looking buildings burned out or actively burning, and an empty town square/market area. Within five minutes of arrival, the center was swarming with able-bodied grown men, and the crush got so great I worried about being able to extract ourselves from the blocking positions. Why they men had not gotten up off their knees, picked up their AK from behind the back door of their home, and shot those knuckleheads dead baffled me for a long time. Instead, they had been able to slip away before we arrived.

We didn't get any solid leads until someone fingered an old man, who was passing by on the street, as a distant relative of the bandit family. We bundled him into a vehicle and made him show us the location of his clan's area, and it wasn't more than 5 miles east of the town we were in!

The gang that had originally been reported as possessing crew-served weapons, and moving around in platoon-minus strength turned out to be five brothers with a couple of busted up AKs, scampering around in the ubiquitous red racing stripe Isuzu pickup truck. They were detained and dumped off at Blue Diamond Headquarters without ceremony, to an intelligence officer and battle captain who said we needed to hold on to them since we'd captured them. They must have not expected we'd actually accomplish the mission and bring back five younguns' in the back of a pickup truck.

A town versus five guys...No action.

[TheCurmudgeon]

A town versus five guys...No action.

I have seen this before. I think it has to do with certain social conventions, the largest being that none of the people in that town felt any connection to the government and therefore felt that destruction and theft of government property was not really their clan's concern unless and until a clan leader determined action should be taken. I am curious if these five guys actually killed a local or stolen property that belonged to any of the villagers?

I think things in Iraq will be different as the locals begin to lose business and ISIS can't provide basic necessities. Hard to say how long it will take. We had several months in Iraq before they turned on us. I would imagine the timing will be similar. It is one thing to lead a group of volunteers who have joined the struggle. It is another to have to provide for an entire region. It may take several months, but I am guessing they will begin to have trouble with the population. Plus there are the inevitable power struggles and the internal fights over the spoils of war. I will watch to see how things play out over the next few months.

[jcustis]

I have seen this before. I think it has to do with certain social conventions, the largest being that none of the people in that town felt any connection to the government and therefore felt that destruction and theft of government property was not really their clan's concern unless and until a clan leader determined action should be taken. I am curious if these five guys actually killed a local or stolen property that belonged to any of the villagers?

I think things in Iraq will be different as the locals begin to lose business and ISIS can't provide basic necessities. Hard to say how long it will take. We had several months in Iraq before they turned on us. I would imagine the timing will be similar. It is one thing to lead a group of volunteers who have joined the struggle. It is another to have to provide for an entire region. It may take several months, but I am guessing they will begin to have trouble with the population. Plus there are the inevitable power struggles and the internal fights over the spoils of war. I will watch to see how things play out over the next few months.

Good line of query. This were so unstable then that the villagers might have still been in a little shock over the fall of Baghdad, but then again they were so far of the beaten path that I don't think they had ever see a Gringo before and were somewhat inoculated from the invasion.

They were just a bunch of thugs, and I don't recall any word of killings r theft of private property.

[davidbfpo]

A new map from WAPO.

[ganulv]

A new map from WAPO.

So ISIS effectively controls Iraq Highway 12 and Syria Highway 4?

[davidbfpo]

Turkish diplomats seized, including a former adviser to the Prime Minister and ISIS claim they are being "interviewed about crimes" (From Twitter). So will Turkey react?

The Kurds calculating if they should respond, leaving aside for a moment their perennial split over power and revenue. Some reports of Peshmerga taking the civil airport @ Mosul and clashes on the road to Kirkuk. Some of which is covered here by a Kurdish website, so maybe read with caution:http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/11062014

Just about the best piece I've seen today:http://arabist.net/blog/2014/6/11/ma...st-solemn-hour

A commentary written in mid-May 2014, which sets the scene and has this passage:

ISIS has created a multi-ethnic army; almost a foreign legion, to secure its territory. These cadres—trained, indoctrinated, networked, equipped and funded—will doubtless present a challenge for Arab and Western security services in the coming years, all the more so if not dealt with in the very near future.

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/05/sta...raq-and-syria/

Will Baghdad be able to respond, apart from reading poetry to boost ISF morale? Already I note references to enlisting (buying?) support from Iranian supported Shia militia and as one "wag" suggested Hezbollah are the solution.

From my faraway armchair and with no ground knowledge I do find the scenes of the civilian population exit noteworthy, with allowance that they maybe non-Sunni minorities.

[OUTLAW 09]

For those interested in the English version of the ISIS takeover of Mosul ---from the ISIS English web site.

http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-...agazine-2014-6

Here is the link to their actual English news letter---if concerned about NSA monitoring which they will on this site- recommend Tor.

http://jihadology.net/2014/06/10/al-...-state-news-3/

[jcustis]

I love the commentary and insight from The Arabist. I put that in my browser's favorites as soon as I came on board my current job.
That is a good summation and can bring the novice onlooker up to speed pretty quickly.


ISIS tactics strike me as reminiscent of the Mad Max fighting in Libya, and I wonder if there are any direct connections and influence.
Thanks David.

[OUTLAW 09]

This is an interesting three paragraphs concerning the high desertion rates of the Iraqi Army---the second paragraph is the key I think---the comment that the soldier is tired and he is tired because he has been fighting "armies" for so long.

"One soldier named Mohamed, who would only give his first name because deserters face a possible death sentence, told the newspaper that eight of his comrades had been killed recently when a mortar shell struck their Humvee.

"I felt like I was fighting armies, not an army," said Mohamed, 24. "I’m tired," he said, referring to the U.S. invasion and the years of sectarian strife between the Sunnis and Shiites. "Everyone is tired."

The Iraqi government has attempted to play down the crisis by saying soldiers are "missing" and not deserters, while other officials have claimed that soldiers had not returned from leave because the roads leading to the battlefields were dangerous, the Times said."

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Ira...#ixzz34MO31gbL

[OUTLAW 09]

This article by The Daily Beast while good on why ISIS is winning brings up an interesting comment that might clash with many "positive" views of the "success of the surge".

Namely there is in the article a comment indicating that just maybe the surge did not remove ISIS at all from Mosul.

If that was then in fact an accurate comment then just what did the surge achieve against originally QRJB, then AQI, and now ISIS?

That is in itself an interesting thought as it would go totally against the COIN narrative.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...verything.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears that Iran is now offering their assistance.

Iran offered neighboring Iraq support against terrorism Wednesday, as Baghdad battled a jihadist offensive that has seized the country's second city and is moving toward the capital.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that "while condemning the murder of Iraqi citizens, Iran offers its support to the government and people of Iraq against terrorism," AFP reports.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_0...errorism-5398/

So in the last 24 hours both Iran and Russia have offered "assistance".

[JWing]

This article by The Daily Beast while good on why ISIS is winning brings up an interesting comment that might clash with many "positive" views of the "success of the surge".

Namely there is in the article a comment indicating that just maybe the surge did not remove ISIS at all from Mosul.

If that was then in fact an accurate comment then just what did the surge achieve against originally QRJB, then AQI, and now ISIS?

That is in itself an interesting thought as it would go totally against the COIN narrative.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...verything.html

Mosul was the only urban center where the insurgents and ISIS were not kicked out of during the Surge. ISIS ran the place like a mafia extorting money from businesses, charging taxes on imports into Ninewa, kidnapping people for ransom. In early 2014 it was discovered that ISIS was even able to steal most of the salaries from the Iraqi police in Ninewa.

Article on insurgent financing in Mosul

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...qs-ninewa.html

[davidbfpo]

Reported by the The Guardian, based on Iraqi government sources, with my emphasis:

Iraqi officials told the Guardian that two divisions of Iraqi soldiers – roughly 30,000 men – simply turned and ran in the face of the assault by an insurgent force of just 800 fighters. Isis extremists roamed freely on Wednesday through the streets of Mosul, openly surprised at the ease with which they took Iraq's second largest city after three days of sporadic fighting.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...le-east-states

I take the numbers with a "pinch of salt", but my reading today shows that a posting to Mosul was not desirable, for soldiers and police who were not locals (so mainly Shia dominated units?), with regular fighting, reliant on an air bridge and desertion was rife.