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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

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  1. #1
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

    Like many here following Iraq is not a priority. AM today I read via Twitter reports that Mosul, Iraq's second city had fallen to ISIS, after Iraqi forces crumbled and left.

    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27778112 and http://eaworldview.com/2014/06/iraq-...ke-part-mosul/

    I am aware, from old SWC threads, that the Kurds watch the city closely, but was unaware that our old friends - geography and water - play a part:
    It was also unclear whether ISIS fighters had managed to cross the Tigris river, which dissects the city into two parts, and are also threatening the eastern bank, which is mostly Kurdish. But it appeared clear that the western bank, which represents the original heart and commercial center of Mosul, is in insurgent hands.
    Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...674_story.html

    Just whether the Kurds will sit and watch is unclear.

    As others who watch the region more closely comment there is a growing ISIS governed territory / enclave stretching across Iraq into Syria.
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    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    It wouldn't surprise me to see the Kurds/Pesh go meshugganah on ISIS in the wake of this.

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    Council Member ganulv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    It wouldn't surprise me to see the Kurds/Pesh go meshugganah on ISIS in the wake of this.
    Does the Kurdistan Regional Government control (using the word loosely) any de facto or de jure paramilitary forces?
    If you donít read the newspaper, you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. Ė Mark Twain (attributed)

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    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    Dunno anymore, but when I was in N. Iraq in 2008-09, it was clear that the Kurds Pesh forces and the Kurdish-heavy Iraq Army echelons were maneuverable, well-armed, and professional compared to other forces in the kettle.

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    Default Fall of Mosul ISIS now heading back to Salahaddin

    The Pesh are not in Mosul anymore. They are deployed to the east and north of the city. The ISF completely collapsed in Mosul last night and now ISIS is heading back towards Salahaddin province. It is repeating the same strategy that Zarqawi laid out before his death. To take Anbar, then urban centers, surround Baghdad, and then start fighting within the capital itself. Here are a couple reports you might be interested in to explain the current situation in Iraq:

    Iraq's deteriorating security situation interview with Alexandre Massimo

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...situation.html

    Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Storm Samarra In Salahaddin

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...ant-storm.html

    Beginning of June 2014 Deadliest In Iraq

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...t-in-iraq.html

    Islamic State of Iraq Launches Battle of Ninewa In Mosul

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...es-battle.html

  6. #6
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Joel,

    Thanks I knew you would have been watching events unfold.

    Yassin Musharbash is a German SME and has a rapid commentary on what might come next:http://abususu.blogspot.de/2014/06/d...scenarios.html

    Various Tweets indicating Black Hawk helicopters possiblty taken; just under 3k prisoners released (terror suspects and ordinary crimianls), US$425m in the banks seized (in local currency), Humvees and no doubt more.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-10-2014 at 08:31 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    The Pesh are not in Mosul anymore. They are deployed to the east and north of the city. The ISF completely collapsed in Mosul last night and now ISIS is heading back towards Salahaddin province. It is repeating the same strategy that Zarqawi laid out before his death. To take Anbar, then urban centers, surround Baghdad, and then start fighting within the capital itself. Here are a couple reports you might be interested in to explain the current situation in Iraq:

    Iraq's deteriorating security situation interview with Alexandre Massimo

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...situation.html

    Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Storm Samarra In Salahaddin

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...ant-storm.html

    Beginning of June 2014 Deadliest In Iraq

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...t-in-iraq.html

    Islamic State of Iraq Launches Battle of Ninewa In Mosul

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...es-battle.html
    I fully agree with these comments---the QRBJ, then the AQI, then the ISIS and actually the first true Iraqi Sunni Salafist grouping the Islamic Army in Iraq which was the largest group before Zarqawi/AQI came in 2004 all followed the same campaign plan and there never has been a second one. The IAI had by the end of 2003 had established major cells in all the major cities and rural areas in the Sunni triangle especially Mosul and Baqubah.

    The ISIS stated in mid 2013 their newest campaign plan which had two single points 1) raiding prisons and releasing prisoners to join the fight and 2) taking territory and cities. By the end of 2013 they declared victory in point one and stated they were moving onto point two. During point one ---they attacked five prisons and released over 1400. They freed over 1500 just from the Mosul prison this week as well.
    They were so successful at prison breaks and were on the move in Fallujah-- it even forced Malaki to close Abu Ghraib and move the prisoners there something even we were unable to do--shut down Abu G.

    After Mosul comes Salahaddin, then Baqubah/Diyala---it is all about the Sunni triangle and then into the Sunni districts of Baghdad. Exact to the 2003 campaign plan which was released for all to see but no one believed it possible.

    All captured HMMV 114s have been sent immediately into Syria to be used against the Syrian Army as well as some of the heavier weapon systems they were after---looks like they are rearming themselves with US weapons systems especially anti tank and heavy AAA.

    This was taken out of an article in today's The Daily Beast about the loss of Mosul which was a major defeat of a US trained, supplied, and mentored 300K man army.

    General Najim al-Jabouri, a former mayor of Tel Afar, which is a little more than 31 miles from Mosul, told The Daily Beast the bases seized by ISIS this week would provide the group with even more heavy weapons than they currently control. “The Iraqi army left helicopters, humvees, cargo planes and other heavy machine guns, along with body armor and uniforms,” the general, who is now a scholar at the National Defense University, said. He said he was able to learn about the equipment from soldiers and other politicians in and around Mosul with whom he keeps in touch.

    General Najim is not alone in this assessment. Jack Keane, a retired four-star Army general who was a key adviser to General David Petraeus during the counter-insurgency campaign in Iraq in 2007 and 2008 known as the surge, said ISIS has now established itself as a formidable military force.


    Malaki is in military trouble for the simple reason the two main Shia insurgent groups capable of going toe to toe with the ISIS were all packed up and were sent off by Malaki to support the Syrian Army/Hezbollah and the Iraqi Army while trained in our image never was trained to fight for the "flag" thus the high desertion rates---there were rumors of over 10,000 alone just in the Fulluja campaign.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-11-2014 at 06:37 PM.

  8. #8
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default WMD in a desert bunker: ISIS now occupies site

    A short item missed I suspect by many and officialdom may prefer we don't know:http://2paragraphs.com/2014/06/isis-...n-iraq/?se_id=

    Last week ISIS took control of the Iraqi Army military base at Al Muthanna, 45 miles NW of Baghdad, which houses the remnants of Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons stockpile..... The UN stored tonnes of highly deadly nerve agents like sarin and VX and blister agents like mustard at Al Muthanna between 1994-96 – and sealed the compound to be dealt with later. But still intact are two huge bunkers with the WMD in them. The bunkers are sealed with reinforced concrete, but they are in the hands of ISIS. The nerve agent in the bunkers will by now have degraded to a toxic ‘sludge’ but the mustard will be viable.....Can ISIS access the bunkers? Yes, probably, in time.
    The author 100% knows this field:
    Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, OBE, is the COO of SecureBio, a CBRN consultancy headquartered in the UK. He is a former Commander of British Military CBRN Forces.
    His website is:http://www.securebio.co.uk

    On this BBC News clip he says we should not panic:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTVK8...ure=youtu.be&a

    A little more:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...x-in-Iraq.html
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default WMD in a desert bunker: details from 2010

    An unusually detailed report, written as Iraq joined the CWC and still had the contents of the sealed bunker(s):http://cns.miis.edu/stories/100304_iraq_cw_legacy.htm
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    I call this reporting crap. According to the U.N. inspectors and WMD experts the mustard gas was the only agent of those listed that had a shelf life that could keep it useful by 2003. It's now 2014 and it has probably degraded even more. Agents like sarin probably expired far before 03. In fact the WMD facility at Muthanna was known to have taken short cuts in the production of agents which made them have an even shorter life than usual.

  11. #11
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Good to know you can conclude so succinctly.

    Understandably chemical weapons are so 'orrible to think about, few have expertise.

    Hamish de Bretton-Gordon has just Tweeted:
    Regarding the old Iraqi CW depot in Muthanna - If the public domain info is right, the best ISIS could do would be a nuisance device
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-09-2014 at 07:10 PM. Reason: add 3rd sentence
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    Iraq's sarin stock was made with high imperfections and only had a shelf life of 2 years. It was made in the 1980s so was long dead by 2003. Mustard gas and VX had much longer life. Michael Knights said that insurgents got into Muthanna site before back in 04 and used unfilled shells from there to make IEDs "causing mild nerve gas effects on US troops".

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Action taken to enable thread to be reopened

    I have deleted three posts and edited slightly four posts.
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    Default ISIS: Public Legitimacy Through the Reenactment of Islamís Early History

    ISIS: Public Legitimacy Through the Reenactment of Islamís Early History

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    Default ISIS Is Paying Attention To What Experts Are Saying About Them

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    Default Military Skill and Terrorist Technique Fuel Success of ISIS

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    Default An Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) First Strategy

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    Default Why ISIS Is Our Problem

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    Default Why Reasoning with ISIS is a Useless Concept

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    Default Defeating ISIS and Their Complex Way of War

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