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Thread: Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    What is surprising me is the lack of ISIS and coalition to use their truck based 12.7s and heavier MG as a AAA against air attacks---they might in fact be using them but do not see the reporting of their use. They also have to have MANPADs as a few have been used in Syria
    Do they know how? Been watching all the video on TV and YouTube etc and to be honest have yet to see the sights being used on these vehicle mounted HMGs when fired. Also there may well be a limitation on the elevation and ease of rotation on these home made mounts which make it impossible to engage aircraft.

    MANPADS. Where did they get them from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    ISIS probing is now occurring in and around Balad AF base and has been the last week or so-- ISIS is after the hundreds of gun trucks stored there as well as the 114s-if I recall they were used by JSOC---if Balad goes so goes strategically the entire Iraqi Army.
    I am still unable to understand... to comprehend how the Iraqi army has and continues to collapse. Surely there are those who worked with and/or trained these Iraqis who have an explanation for this... and whether this pattern will follow in Afghanistan?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Is this unexpected or a bad thing?
    A bad thing as the Quds guys were also on the ground during the ethnic cleansing in the past and worked together with the Shia JAM/Special Groups guys---we picked up eight of them but Malaki was adamant that we turn them over which we did because "we felt we could not damage the relationship"---basically we were played by Malaki.

    This was being reported out of Baghdad but carried in the Saudi Online news---two things stuck me---the claim that al Duri is the mastermind between the current offensive and the killing of the Iraqi Kurdish judge who sentenced Saddam to death. That will not set well with the Kurds although it appears he was killed in Baghdad not in the north.

    Noticed that al Duri has his own Facebook page.

    Baghdad: Iraqi militant group ISIL has killed the judge who ordered Saddam Hussain’s verdict of death-by-hanging in 2006, several Arab news media reported on Tuesday.
    Reports claim that Kurdish judge Raouf Abdul Rahman was executed by the militants in retaliation to Saddam’s hanging.
    The judge was earlier reported to have been kidnapped by the militants last week on June 16.
    Although the Iraqi government has not confirmed the news, several media reports cited at least two important Facebook posts, confirming the report.
    One of the FB posts cited, is that of Jordanian MP Khalil Attiehq who wrote that Judge Rahman, who had headed the Supreme Iraqi Criminal Tribunal during Saddam’s trial in 2006, was arrested and sentenced to death in revenge for the tyrant’s death.
    The Jordanian MP added in his Facebook post that the judge attempted to escape by donning dancers’ uniform but was caught and killed by the ISIS fighters.
    Another Facebook post confirming the judge’s execution by militants is that of Izzat Ibrahim Al-Douri, who was Saddam’s former deputy and later emerged as a key figure among the militants.
    Al-Douri is reportedly one of the masterminds behind the latest ISIS offensive in Iraq.
    Judge Raouf Abdul Rahman was born in the Kurdish town of Halabja, and was appointed the head of the five-member bench overseeing Saddam’s trial in 2006 after the previous judge Rizgar Amin was criticized for being soft on the dictator.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Do they know how? Been watching all the video on TV and YouTube etc and to be honest have yet to see the sights being used on these vehicle mounted HMGs when fired. Also there may well be a limitation on the elevation and ease of rotation on these home made mounts which make it impossible to engage aircraft.

    MANPADS. Where did they get them from?
    JMA---the newer utilities they are using allows for a full swing and evaluation plus they have the heavier 14.5s with seats for the gunners---(saw in one video 23mm with gunner seats as well)---also mounted in a similar fashion.

    They did shoot down several US types with the 12.7s before we left so the Mi-8 should not be a problem as it is slower at lower levels and a bigger target to shoot at----the Iraqi's do not have yet the new Russian Mi-35s which Russia was going to export to them.

    The few that have been fired in Syria and shown in online videos were earlier models of Russian MANPADS which if reporting is correct is unusual as they were long past they expiration dates.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Do they know how? Been watching all the video on TV and YouTube etc and to be honest have yet to see the sights being used on these vehicle mounted HMGs when fired. Also there may well be a limitation on the elevation and ease of rotation on these home made mounts which make it impossible to engage aircraft.

    MANPADS. Where did they get them from?

    That's a ZU-23-2 in a very nearly standard mount welded into a light truck. Many of these things aren't nearly as modified as you might expect. I've seen DShKM MGs using the vast majority of their normal AA mounts welded into truck beds, too.

    As to the more important (IMO) question, weren't there rumours that some of the MANPADS came from old Libyan stocks?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I am still unable to understand... to comprehend how the Iraqi army has and continues to collapse. Surely there are those who worked with and/or trained these Iraqis who have an explanation for this... and whether this pattern will follow in Afghanistan?
    JMA---this article from Tom Ricks over on FP gives some explanations----basically the Iraqi Army became an employment agency for the Shia at 700 USD per month which by any standards in Iraq is a solid salary, the corruption was rampart and the maintenance side was poor to begin with.

    http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts..._that_he_ouste

    Malaki created a military in the end that did not nor could not threaten his position via a coup and many Shia commanders took their orders directly from him in direct violation of the Iraqi Constitution. Just as he had the US trained Iraqi SF units answering directly to him---he used both the Army and the Iraqi SF as weapons to beat down the Sunni population.

    The same Constitution that now Malaki says will not allow him to form a "unity government".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post

    That's a ZU-23-2 in a very nearly standard mount welded into a light truck. Many of these things aren't nearly as modified as you might expect. I've seen DShKM MGs using the vast majority of their normal AA mounts welded into truck beds, too.

    As to the more important (IMO) question, weren't there rumours that some of the MANPADS came from old Libyan stocks?
    There was some evidence and the US will not admit to it but when the air strikes started over Libya the Spectre C130s/A10s were held outside Libyan airspace out of fear of the SAM-6/8s and the Russian MANPAD threats.

    US/NATO used hunter/killer (Reapers/Preds) drones against 6/8s and actually got kills on them.

    For some strange reason the Libyan Army which had a truck mounted Russian MANPAD system never actually engaged with them.

    Estimates where that Libya had over 24,000 of them at the start of the air campaign ---never heard if they were hit in their storage bunkers but seriously doubt it although the bunkers were hit hard a number of times---yes there have been rumors that a large number left Libya via smuggle routes--there was strangely a video carried on a Russian TV station claiming that the proRussian Ukrainians had shot down a M8 with a MANPAD but it turned out to be a battle video from Syria----they just used it in their infowar side and did not even taken out the ISIS logo.

    If they were not destroyed in their bunkers then they are out there somewhere for the right price I am assuming.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-26-2014 at 01:18 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    They did shoot down several US types with the 12.7s before we left so the Mi-8 should not be a problem as it is slower at lower levels and a bigger target to shoot at----the Iraqi's do not have yet the new Russian Mi-35s which Russia was going to export to them.
    I believe that a number have been delivered and have been active in the conflict.

    I'm not entirely sure whether the Mi-28s have been flying sorties, though I assume they have been.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    If they were not destroyed in their bunkers then they are out there somewhere for the right price I am assuming.

    Probably a reasonable assumption. But why buy secondhand when you can purchase new?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post
    I believe that a number have been delivered and have been active in the conflict.

    I'm not entirely sure whether the Mi-28s have been flying sorties, though I assume they have been.
    That is why ISIS has been probing Balad Airbase as that is the point where the Mi8s/35s were being flown into by Russia and then prepped. Balad was going to be the point as well for the F16s the US was going to be sending in---due to the length of the airfield runways.

    Also the reason it appears that ISIS is gearing up to attack the base---would give them indirectly their own airforce.

    But think they are really after the several hundred gun utilities and 114s used by JSOC before they pulled out.

    Also taking Balad would be icing on the cake and a major strategic defeat of the ISFs ability to hold onto Sunni cities/towns.

    ISIS and coalition have already taken FOB Speicher a really big airfield and major ISF supply depot and FOB Speicher when the US was there was always a Division headquarters FOB.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-26-2014 at 01:42 PM.

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    Interesting Iranian drone/military forces article in the gulfnews.com from today quoting the New York Times.

    Bahrain and KSA online news media sites have been rather quiet on Iraq ---actually way too quiet for my tastes outside of KSA reporting that Kerry arrived in the KSA for Iraqi talks.

    http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iran...iraq-1.1352494

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    My new article "Iraq’s Western Front Is Anbar Next To Fall?". Dec. 2013 is when the current fighting started in Iraq due to a rash decision by PM Maliki. He turned an offensive against ISIS as an attack upon the protest movement there. The insurgents immediately took advantage of the situation and Fallujah quickly fell. Since the June offensive started the ISF has collapsed in Anbar just like in northern Iraq and the entire province may fall in the coming days.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Is this unexpected or a bad thing?
    Expected. After the massive Iranian mobilization for Syria it wasn't going to let Iraq right on its border go down too. Might be interested in reading my interview with Phillip Smyth about Iranian and Shia militia mobilization that's currently going on in Iraq

    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...-mobilize.html

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    According to a report by Jane's Defense Weekly insurgents have shot down 6 Iraqi army helicopters and have damaged helicopters 60 other times. In the on going assault upon Beiji refinery in Salahaddin ISIS has deployed truck mounted AA guns to keep away helicopters from re-suppling and re-enforcing the ISF unit that is holding onto the facility.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post
    I believe that a number have been delivered and have been active in the conflict.

    I'm not entirely sure whether the Mi-28s have been flying sorties, though I assume they have been.
    Iraqi Army Aviation has been putting all the new Russian copters into service shortly after their arrival. There is plenty of video on youtube of their use.

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    report of the judge that sentenced Saddam being killed turned out to just be a rumor. He's alive and well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    According to a report by Jane's Defense Weekly insurgents have shot down 6 Iraqi army helicopters and have damaged helicopters 60 other times. In the on going assault upon Beiji refinery in Salahaddin ISIS has deployed truck mounted AA guns to keep away helicopters from re-suppling and re-enforcing the ISF unit that is holding onto the facility.
    JWing-
    Make that one more crash landing after the airborne assault in Tikrit with one staying on the ground after coming under heavy fire---the third one made it off the ground.

    Any idea how the Tikrit fighting is going?---reports I have seen say it is heavy fighting with the Iraqi SF types surrounded in some areas and pinned down.

    It is the MOUT fighting outcome that will be interesting as that is where the ISF bogs down every time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I am still unable to understand... to comprehend how the Iraqi army has and continues to collapse. Surely there are those who worked with and/or trained these Iraqis who have an explanation for this... and whether this pattern will follow in Afghanistan?
    In simple terms it is a failure of leadership. We saw the same thing during Desert Storm and OIF 1 when they hit their breaking point. I had lunch with an Iraqi LT shortly after we secured our area in 2003, and I asked him through my terp why he didn't fire on us. He was very frank, he said he would fight for his country, but not a chair (implying Saddam). I suspect we're seeing the same now, why would they want to fight for Maliki? The senior Iraqi officers appointed by Maliki must be buffoons and completely non-inspirational. Leadership is decisive at the tactical level, and if they had warrior leaders they were more than capable of holding the line I suspect.

    In comparison why do ISIS/ISIL fighters fight so hard?

    Can troops with low morale, regardless of well armed they are in comparison, defeat highly motivated and aggressive troops? I know there are a lot of variables and no simple answer, but I think we underestimate the power of morale.

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    Update on the security situation in Salahaddin "Iraq’s Northern Front Stalemate In Salahaddin". After Mosul the insurgent turned southwards and took half of Salahaddin. Were stopped in Tuz Kharmato in the west by Kurdish and Turkmen forces, while ISF held onto Baiji refinery Samarra and Balad. Fight there has now turned into a war of attrition, which the entire war in Iraq will be like. No more big maneuvers by insurgents, but ISF incapable or holding any area it retakes, plus Baghdad has no strategy for reversing the security situation.

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    Default Interview Of Col. John Warden On Solving Iraq Crisis

    Recent radio interview of Retired Air Force Stratagist John Warden on solving the Iraq crisis.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DjyF...ature=youtu.be

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