Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[ganulv]

I was doing dishes the first time I listened, and this time I heard "we need to drag the Turks into this to disarm them and establish a good government." Paraphrased, but close to what he said I believe.

From my on the fly transcription:

[3:13] What one would have to do if they wanted to solve this problem, and not just make a narrow counter-terrorism approach to it, would be to try to draw the Turks into Syria with Saudi, American backing, and NATO backing, to try to disarm the militias and set up a government that was a good government, that everybody could get behind and pour money into for development […]

Staying in my grumpy and defiant mood, what are the chances Turkey wants to do this? Are they capable of helping them establishing a good government? Why wouldn't Turkey continue to arm the Sunni Syrians to finish off Assad's regime? Granted he is a regional expert, but it all seems out of the reach of reality to me.

First question: You got me. Almost none at the moment? The chances might go up with a few third party incentives and 5–10 more years of the current status quo.

Second question: A completely fair point. I think you can see what Landis is trying to get at when at 5:08 he discusses the need to realize that a de facto Sunni state has already been created. I think the Western government in a box + aid money approach that has been attempted in Afghanistan is almost certain to fail, too. But maybe a neighbor with longer term interests and a better understanding of the dynamics would stand a better chance. Emphasis on maybe.

Third question: Also fair. The counterweight of Iranian support for Assad?

Landis is putting it out there. For all I know he is playing Devil’s advocate, saying, “If you think what I am saying sounds out of reach of reality…”