Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[JWing]

Please read my latest interview. I talked with Abu Abed, ex-Sahwa leader from Amiriya, Baghdad. Here's a link.

[davidbfpo]

A rather sharp critique of US policy in the Middle East, by a ret'd US diplomat (who last served twenty years ago):http://chasfreeman.net/the-collapse-...e-middle-east/

Here is a taster:

We are trying to cope with the cumulative consequences of multiple failures. Just about every American project in the Middle East has now come a cropper.

(Later) We have a military campaign plan but lack a political program. We are bombing Da`ish to contain it. There is little reason to believe this will prove effective. Based on past experience, there is no reason to believe it will evolve into a strategy....Da`ish displays unity of command, strong discipline, and elevated morale. The coalition we have assemble to oppose it has no agreed objectives. It is divided, disjointed, and demoralized.

[omarali50]

It will get worse. I have some background on the Islamic angle.

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...and-so-on.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Iraq's Sunnis won't fight ISIS for the U.S. says NIQASH, a non-profit media organization operating out of Berlin. Without Sunni support, America's war in Iraq cannot succeed. Here's why.

Negotiations Fail

According to NIQASH, a source at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad said there have been secret negotiations between various Sunni Muslim armed factions, via Arab and Iraqi Kurdish intermediaries, for the past three months. At the request of U.S. diplomats and military personnel, Shia officials from the Iraqi government have also been meeting with the leaders of these groups in Erbil, Kurdistan and Amman, Jordan.

At the same time General John Allen, the Obama's appointed coordinator of U.S. efforts in Iraq, has been trying to contact the Sunni tribal leaders he worked with in Anbar during the previous war's "Awakening." "But it was surprising," a NIQASH source reported, "Most of General Allen's former allies refused to cooperate with us. And some of them are actually now living outside of Iraq because of the Iraqi government's policies."

Oops. With some irony, America's failure to secure the 2006 Awakening caused those Sunnis sympathetic to America's aims to flee Shia persecution. Those "good guys" are thus not available in 2014 to help out America in the current war.

[JWing]

Just published my weekly security report covering Oct. Attacks and casualties were slightly up in Oct compared to Sep. IS faced its first major setback losing Jurf al-Sakhr in Babil. ISF also on offensive in Salahaddin and peshmerga in Ninewa. IS on the other hand still trying to take rest of Anbar and Mount Sinjar. Was significant month because Iraqis able to take important ground from IS for first time. Here's a link.

[CrowBat]

A rather sharp critique of US policy in the Middle East, by a ret'd US diplomat (who last served twenty years ago):http://chasfreeman.net/the-collapse-...e-middle-east/

Here is a taster:

Hard to believe anybody is as bold as to say it THAT clearly.

But then, of course: the author is already in retirement (so nothing bad can happen in return, and nobody listens).

[JWing]

The Albu Nimr tribe in Anbar which has been fighting the insurgency since 04 is facing mass arrests and executions by the Islamic State. Read what happened in my latest article here.

[davidbfpo]

Crowbat referred to Kurds fighting with and for ISIS now two weeks ago, which rather puzzled me - even allowing for the impact of radicalisation. A Kurdish contact responded:

There are kurds within and supporting ISIS. Although the this is not typical of kurdish political views. The vast majority are secular and vehemently opposed to such organisations.... I understand, the majority of those involved in ISIS are from a particular region, Halabja, in the kurdistan region of Iraq. This is, no doubt, connected to tribal, or religious networks in this are, which probably extend into Iran.

Just spotted a lengthy article on Stripes:http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-e...VTCtf4.twitter

It comments include why Halabja, a town gassed by Saddam Hussein, in 1988:

Halabja was known as a secular village and the home of Abdullah Goran, one of the best-known Kurdish poets in the 20th century and a member of the Iraqi Communist Party. But in the past three decades, Muslim preachers have become active and have turned it into one of Iraqi Kurdistan's most religiously conservative areas....(How many?) Some 70 Iraqi Kurds...

[CrowBat]

David, sigh... I can't talk about the source, but consider this 'first hand': more than 300 Kurds were recruited for the Daesh alone in Evin Prison, in Tehran, in 2013.

So, somebody talking about '70'.... that's as silly as declaring majority of Kurds for 'secular'. Vast majority of Kurds are Sunni Moslems (even Wikipedia 'knows' this).

That is: except your source meant, '70 from specific village/minor town', of course.

*************

EDIT: the Austrian Ministry of Interior has published its data on Austrians that joined the Daesh so far.

154 went there, 64 came back, some 20+ are known to have been killed so far.

Anybody there seriously attempting to sell the story there are less Kurds fighting for the Daesh than Austrians...?

[Bill Moore]

There have always been Kurds in al-Qaeda in Iraq, so this shouldn't be a surprise. Of course we prefer the simple answers, Arabs bad, Kurds good. There are Sunni, Shia, and Christian Kurds, and who knows there are probably a few Buddhist converts. In all seriousness though we need to avoid over generalizations.