Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[OUTLAW 09]

We made a temporary alliance with Stalin during WWII to address a greater evil (arguably). Alliances are not always built upon mutual respect, but they are always built on common interests.

Bill--fully agree with the comment but the inherent but---right now a bulk of the ME is in turmoil because of three things;

1. the total failure to settle the Israeli-Palestinian problem in a way that satisfies both parties and right now even Israeli internal politics is being driven by and many may not like the term but they are in fact ultra rightists religious zealots that force a bulk of the more moderate Israeli's farer and farer to the right thus making a compromise virtually impossible

2. the internal dispute between two regional hegemons of two uncompromising religious wings of the same religion ---the Sunni Shia divide

3. the failures of the Arab Springs outside of Tunisia

A possible fourth item might in fact be the Russian and Chinese interests inside that turmoil which they are using for their particular geo political interests.

Address those items and the ME is no longer a center of turmoil.

But by the US taking a "bombing side" and threatening to "eliminate once and for all times IS" we have dug ourselves into a ME version of the Soviet Union and AFG.

Unless we are ready to commit full military power in forcing a settlement the above items will continue to drag in time and energy until we learn to step back and allow those populations to finally settle their issues themselves regardless of outcomes even if we do not like the outcomes.

Many Americans are poor at history ---it took a 30 and 100 years war and virtually the wiping out of the civilian populations in large areas of the now Germany/Rhineland regions in order to get the two large religions of the period to settle their differences---as brutal as it sounds that must again happen in the ME.

[OUTLAW 09]

And there is no US SF/SEAL forces co-working with the British SAS inside Iraq--so there are no US combat forces physically engaged inside Iraq--come on?

#UK 'SAS have killed 100s of #ISIS jihadis in a series of ambushes inside #Iraq

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...our-weeks.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

Here we go again with the ISF unable to beat IS on the ground when it is a "fair fight" with no US air cover.

أبو انس مجاهد @abuanasmujahid

Major General Fadhil Jalil al-Barwari says Ramadi may completely fall to Islamic State as 221 Iraqi Special Forces killed since friday

[Bill Moore]

Here we go again with the ISF unable to beat IS on the ground when it is a "fair fight" with no US air cover.

أبو انس مجاهد @abuanasmujahid

Major General Fadhil Jalil al-Barwari says Ramadi may completely fall to Islamic State as 221 Iraqi Special Forces killed since friday

Outlaw

Outside of our government talking heads, who said USSOF wasn't fighting?

Second, and I'm sure you will appreciate this, it would make perfect sense for any of our adversaries, especially state adversaries, to quietly (through cut outs) provide limited support to ISIS. The goal isn't for ISIS to win, but to keep the U.S. distracted and provide freedom of movement elsewhere in the world (South China Sea, Ukraine, etc.).

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw

Outside of our government talking heads, who said USSOF wasn't fighting?

Second, and I'm sure you will appreciate this, it would make perfect sense for any of our adversaries, especially state adversaries, to quietly (through cut outs) provide limited support to ISIS. The goal isn't for ISIS to win, but to keep the U.S. distracted and provide freedom of movement elsewhere in the world (South China Sea, Ukraine, etc.).

Bill--you bring an interesting comment---by the way where SAS shows up inside Syria and or Iraq so shows up US SOF--an "old saying". The two orgs have trained and deployed together for too many years to not work "quietly" together.

There have been some serious rumint for a number of years that indicated Russia did not do much of anything in allowing/slowing down Russian Islamists from the RF to leave Russia and fight in Syria and Iraq-estimated in the 1300 range potentially though much higher--same goes for some arms shipments from Russia that somehow "disappeared enroute to Syria" that magically reappeared in the hands of the IS. There is also some strong rumint of money laundering via the Russian mob concerning the IS stolen oil sales via Turkish criminal gangs.

Allowing the Russian Islamists to leave might inside the Russian FSB be viewed as a "hope they leave, get killed and or do not return" kind of program.

Russian fear is now the blowback as a large number of those Russian Islamists are headed home and none to happy with Russian control of their individual states inside the RF and the Russian perceived oppression of Muslims in general.

IS has by the way in a number of their recent PR releases attacked Russia directly and are serious about their threats to send home the fighters to cause Russia major problems within their Muslim populations which are extremely tense at the moment due to Russian oppression of their individual rights and there have been a number of Russian nationalist attacks on their mosques as well.

Coupled with the "disappearance" and murders of over 12 Crimea Tartars since the Russian annexation of the Crimea
--it does not bode well for Russia.

[Bill Moore]

There is also some strong rumint of money laundering via the Russian mob concerning the IS stolen oil sales via Turkish criminal gangs.

Ah yes, the great convergence between state, criminal, and VEO actors, which also increasingly merges the black, gray, and while economic systems. Old as mankind, but greatly accelerated and empowered by the globalized systems of trade and finance. Most are aware of this threat, but most don't appreciate the seriousness of the threat to the globalized systems we are so dependent on. Yes a nuclear armed missile or a terrorist with a WMD presents an immediate and potentially catastrophic threat that must be negated to the extent possible. We are good at identifying and planning for these types of tangible threats. What we're not good at is recognizing the risk of collapse due to forces that gradually erode the international systems, like termites gradually destroying the infrastructure of a home. If the house catches on fire we call the fire department, and we have insurance, and assorted other protocols. For termites, which is far from a perfect analogy, because we do recognize the threat and there are methods to mitigate them IF we are aware of the threat and take action. For these slower moving threats in the globalized systems we often lack awareness and fail to take collective action.

[OUTLAW 09]

Appears our bombing strategy inside Syria is in fact driving anti Assad forces towards not away from IS.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-support-isis?

[davidbfpo]

As this thread moves between the local and regional, if not far wider here are two articles on the regional aspects, both via the Open Democracy blogsite.

One, The geostrategic consequences of the Arab Springstarts with a summary:

The Arab awakening is creating a new socio-political and economic reality in the region, transforming the balance of power, not because states have become stronger, but rather because states have become weak and fragile.

It concludes:

There are three fundamental geostrategic implications shaping the future of the balance of power in the Middle East. The first geostrategic consequence of the Arab Spring is the appearance of people as the main catalyst for these nations' internal dynamics.

The second geostrategic consequence is the proliferation of weak states. First, the monopoly of force has been questioned and weakened in several Arab countries, with increasing violence at sub-state level.

The third consequence is the densification of geopolitical disputes crystallized in latent conflicts. The implications will have a great impact on the relations and power structure in the Middle East.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...of-arab-spring

Second an article by Professor Paul Rogers, which in summary argues:

Behind the flux of conflict on the ground in Syria-Iraq, all sides are digging in for a long war.

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-r...-its-far-enemy