Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[Bill Moore]

Posted by JMA

It was the West's failure to act in Syria - led by current US Administration - which set the scene for the current state of affairs in Iraq where it is all happening.

As for Syria leading to the situation in Iraq, it certainly didn't help it (nor could we have changed that dynamic), but it would have happened anyway. Read about AQ's strategy in Iraq, they were making significant progress independent of anything happening in Syria. See the link I provided above on the Rise of the ISI. It actually provides great insight into their campaign plan, and what we can anticipate in the future.

Key excerpts:

That campaign was absolutely crucial in allowing the Islamic State to start its second 12-month campaign, which was “Soldier’s Harvest.” That has essentially seen the Islamic State launch a really concerted, high-level and brutal campaign of multiple bombings, large and small, and a concerted campaign of assassinations. Essentially, it sought to spark the perceptions of sectarian conflict within Iraqi dynamics and to transfer what were existing sectarian tensions within the political system, for example, back into the tribal thinking, back into societal thinking. That, in effect, created a vacuum which the Islamic State felt it would be able to step into, and in many respects that is what it has managed to do just in the last couple of months.

This nests perfectly with AQ's Management of Savagery strategy that is available via a Google search.

The bombings not only influenced that element of sectarian conflict in Iraq, but additionally, it also enforced a serious level of intimidation on the security forces – to the extent to which it was possible on a very local level for Islamic State commanders to essentially force the local army commanders to surrender without a fight. And certainly from what it’s been possible to see from Mosul in early June, that seems to have been what happened when the city fell. A lot of that was the result of this expansive intelligence and intimidation campaign, in addition to military attacks which had been taking place across Sunni areas of Iraq for at least the last two or three years.

Interesting comment

There will come a point at which the Islamic State will feel that if it continues the kind of gains that it’s making at the moment, it will reach a point at which it feels like it doesn’t anymore need these relationships with some of these groups. It will be at that point – where [the Islamic State] begins to assert itself more unilaterally – that you could start to see these relationships crumble.

Goes on to say that

Having said that, the Islamic State has proven its ability to pragmatically withdraw from territory where it feels like it can’t win – and then to later go back and recapture it. That’s what it’s doing in Syria at the moment.

Indicates they have a plan and can adapt to changes on the ground. I be the lone voice in this discussion, but I think the President is right that regarding military operations only having a minimal effect until the Iraqi government cleans up its act. Once there is a government worth fighting for, it will be easier (not easy) to clean ISI out of the key areas, especially if they continue to fight as a semi-conventional force. We can do that now, but to what end if we can't consolidate the victory with viable political control to hold the ground?

[JMA]

Posted by JMA

As for Syria leading to the situation in Iraq, it certainly didn't help it (nor could we have changed that dynamic), but it would have happened anyway. Read about AQ's strategy in Iraq, they were making significant progress independent of anything happening in Syria. ...

I appreciate just how humiliating it is for Americans right now but when the signs were that it was all going pear-shaped the 'flock' blindly supported a failing policy and attacked anyone who strayed 'off-message'.

Certainly in time we will have more clarity on this and other matters. In the meantime the best advice is to resist any knee-jerk defence of obvious failure.

[Bill Moore]

I appreciate just how humiliating it is for Americans right now but when the signs were that it was all going pear-shaped the 'flock' blindly supported a failing policy and attacked anyone who strayed 'off-message'.

Certainly in time we will have more clarity on this and other matters. In the meantime the best advice is to resist any knee-jerk defence of obvious failure.

I don't think you have a good appreciation for how our country works. Obama's plans for Iraq were bitterly attacked, and his failure to follow through with his redline comment was bitterly attacked, and Libya, and Afghanistan, etc. I admit the democratic party has in many ways has become Nazi like where there is no deviation of thought allowed within their ranks; however, since Obama's policies are increasingly unpopular, we're starting to see fissures in their party (they're starting to look like an American political party again, instead of mindless conformists). We have three branches of government that counterbalance each other, the President is not all powerful.

As for the military, we're subordinate to civilian leadership, but that doesn't mean our leaders don't speak truth to power, but they do quietly behind closed doors. Once the decision is made they execute.

I agree it will take more time to understand what is happening in Syria and Iraq, who all the players are, why certain decisions are being made, etc. Of course we're trying to avoid a knee jerk response now, and that course of action comes with its critics also. I would like to say it isn't a popularity contest, but in democracy it too often is very much about a popularity contest. Some politicians have the courage to do what is right versus what is popular, but they're a minority.