Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[JWing]

Ray

Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. How does it fit in with your theory about Muslim countries?

[davidbfpo]

Outlaw09 has posted on the potential for Iraqi state forces giving up. Just spitted on Twitter:

New vid of 1000s of Iraqsoldiers in Tikrit captured by ISIS. Acc to ISIS, nb of prisoners is 4500...(in a comment) tw most of these captured ones are from shia milita Asab el haqq

Very short video of along column of men walking along a highway, very lightly guarded:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0sa9...ature=youtu.be

I do wonder what these prisoners life chances are.

[davidbfpo]

A different viewpoint:

Aboud Dandachi is an activist from the Syrian city of Homs, currently residing in Istanbul. He has been cited on issues relating to the Syrian conflict in the BBC, NPR, LA Times, the Guardian, Al-Arabiya and Turkiye Gazetesi.

Certainly bitter about ISIS and commends Kurdish capabilities to expel ISIS from urban areas. Also refers to the curious "hands off" stance by Assad's regime. Judge for yourself:http://adandachi.com/istanbul/isis-mosul-raqqa/

[JWing]

Carl not so long ago there was a similar theory about Catholics. It was said that because they followed the Pope who is like a king Catholics could not become democrats. This was once used in a theory to explain why there were so many dictatorships in Latin America. The argument went that because they were Catholics they always gravitated towards a Jefe, strongman because they followed the Pope. In fact that was also an argument against the election of John Kennedy. There was a political cartoon against him that said if elected there would be a tunnel from the White House to Vatican City and Kennedy would be taking direct orders from the Pope.

[JWing]

Iraqi forces retook Baiji in Salahaddin. Early reports that the refinery and power station outside the city being taken were incorrect. Baghdad has sent special forces towards Mosul. Tikrit was taken by ISIS, attempt to re-take it by ISF failed. ISIS launched another assault upon Samarra in Salahaddin but were repulsed. Peshmerga has deployed outside of Mosul, moved into some of the disputed territories in Diyala and occupied Kirkuk city. Yesterday was the first time there were reports in the Iraqi press that the ISF was fighting back.

Also don't forget that there is massive militia mobilization and Iran is moving into Iraq big time.

[jcustis]

The reason for the comment is as follows---if one takes the view that yes the US military implemented as correctly as they could the tenets of COIN in the host country Iraq as per say and we can argue about it all day-- as per the FM.

I apologize if you thought I was referring to you about fixing blame. I was thinking out loud about the pundits, partisans, and tinfoil hat kooks.

[OUTLAW 09]

I apologize if you thought I was referring to you about fixing blame. I was thinking out loud about the pundits, partisans, and tinfoil hat kooks.

Took no offense my only concern is that the Army has gotten so wrapped up in the COIN debate they lost sight of really what is going on in such environments ie Iraq and Syria. The discussion of COIN failure is extremely important but more important is the discussion of a national UW and counter UW strategy as the next 20 years will be about UW as it is the center piece of both the new Russian and Chinese strategies. COIN died in Iraq and although it died--it was attempted to "win" with it in AFG because no debate concerning failure took place.

If one looks at the WH decision to not support the more "moderate" of the Islamists in Syria with heavier weapons in order to effectively counter Assad as well as ISIS--in hindsight this was a massive mistake and Syria was lost as well as the Sunni triangle.

Secondly, there is an interesting link that ISIS has been treated far "differently" by Assad forces than the other Islamist groups---and this might in fact be correct if one looks at the history of AQI and other Sunni groups selling HME to the JAM/SG/Mahdi groups and AQI purchasing EFPs from JAM/SGs. If one remembers the introduction of the Russian hand held and thrown RGP 3 anti tank grenade in about 2006/2207 that caused a lot of damage--it was initially introduced by AQI then transferred to the IAI ---all indicators initially pointed to it coming into Iraq via Iranian smugglers.

And then the recent reporting of how Iran protected and moved AQ personnel in and through Iran in order to fight against the US in Iraq.

I do know from first hand debriefs that IAI did not like AQI protecting Iranian SF agents that did come and go as early as 2005 into Iraq and were protected by AQI.

[carl]

Iraqi forces retook Baiji in Salahaddin. Early reports that the refinery and power station outside the city being taken were incorrect. Baghdad has sent special forces towards Mosul. Tikrit was taken by ISIS, attempt to re-take it by ISF failed. ISIS launched another assault upon Samarra in Salahaddin but were repulsed. Peshmerga has deployed outside of Mosul, moved into some of the disputed territories in Diyala and occupied Kirkuk city. Yesterday was the first time there were reports in the Iraqi press that the ISF was fighting back.

Also don't forget that there is massive militia mobilization and Iran is moving into Iraq big time.

Joel:

What is the short term capability of ISIS to take heavy casualties? They seem to be suffering some significant losses when the ISF actually stands and fights. This is important I think because from what I've read it seems the dramatic losses of cities of late have been because of morale collapse caused by lousy leadership, so the run of luck ISIS has been having may not last...and the Iranians are coming.

I remember with sadness how many Iraqis didn't want us to leave because they were afraid that just this kind of thing would happen. But there was an election coming up here and a talking point had to be carved in stone.

[ganulv]

I remember with sadness how many Iraqis didn't want us to leave because they were afraid that just this kind of thing would happen. But there was an election coming up here and a talking point had to be carved in stone.

If I recall correctly, the plan to leave a so-called residual force hinged on delicate Status Of Forces Agreement negotiations that ended up being handled less than delicately on both sides.

[JWing]

Was another ISF collapse in Anbar today. Followed by reports of heaving fighting in Abu Ghraib. People with relatives in Baghdad have talked about militias being out in the streets and mobilizing. Two press reports that Iran has sent in special forces and weapons to Iraq. Shiite militias from Syria have been shifted back to Iraq several weeks ago.

[OUTLAW 09]

Was another ISF collapse in Anbar today. Followed by reports of heaving fighting in Abu Ghraib. People with relatives in Baghdad have talked about militias being out in the streets and mobilizing. Two press reports that Iran has sent in special forces and weapons to Iraq. Shiite militias from Syria have been shifted back to Iraq several weeks ago.

JWing---now you point to something that is extremely interesting--is ISIS really after Baghdad or is it a feint in order to do exactly what you mention.

In Syria it has been Hezbollah and Iranian SF together with JAM/SG units that have been the backbone of the Assad Army.

By forcing the Hezbollah, Iran and JAM/SG to reposition away serves ISIS on the Syrian battlefield--notice ISIS was/is more interested in holding Syrian territory and avoid directly confronting the SA as the other Islamists have been doing. Syria is to them the epicenter for the final Shia/Sunni clash.

From battle videos coming out---massive amounts of equipment especially artillery, HMMW 114s, AAA, and trucks and the older MRAPs were driven immediately towards Syria---the rest were burned. Why burn when you can use them for the march to Baghdad and there is street to street MOUT. The ISIS really love their utilities. With one "surge" they have completely rearmed and refitted without outside help and beholden to no one-impressive.

In attempting to hold Baghdad they awake a far larger majority ie the entire Shia nation and regardless how aggressive they are the sheer Shia numbers will eventually overwhelm ---IMO they really want the Sunni triangle and the oil resources there which have been at the heart of the Sunni population complaints since 2010.

That is why I say IAI is back in action as they were always military focused due to a high number of former officers and Iraqi security officers and their close ties to the Sunni tribes which you are correct about---the tribes have walked away from the "Awakening" as in the end it was a fail move on their part years ago-it brought them nothing from Malaki but it did bring grief to their leaders.

What really interests me is the ISIS use of aggressive fast moving swarming attacks in ways that they initially showed us in the late 2000s which were small small--by the way those attacks were always a joint IAI/AQI attack--this is solid battlefield tactical movements that we the US Army probably could not today even come close to doing---that type of attack formation hit the 1st Cav hard in Diyala 2006/2007.

This is reforming the ME literally overnight and our foreign policy in the area is now totally in tatters as we somehow never seem to think long term and we shy away from even coming close to moderate Islamists of which there a few that would talk to us. We need to finally understand that populations will make their own decisions about their futures and sometimes it is not in our direction but that is OK if we can at least talk with them long term.

What we are really seeing is now a Mao phase three guerrilla war using mobile formations on the go and taking no prisoners along the way---notice that they are maintaining fluidity and movement--Mao would be proud and Che would be envious.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw09 has posted on the potential for Iraqi state forces giving up. Just spitted on Twitter:

Very short video of along column of men walking along a highway, very lightly guarded:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0sa9...ature=youtu.be

I do wonder what these prisoners life chances are.

David--guessing not high because ISIS does not have a Geneva C track record with Shia prisoners or Awakening prisoners since 2004.

Have to many beheading videos in my research records that indicates they never change.

[Ray]

Ray

Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world. How does it fit in with your theory about Muslim countries?

They too have had an 'iron hand' given their history.

However, it is interesting to note that their currency carries the image of 'Ganesha' a Hindu idol.



That is blasphemy in Islam!

[OUTLAW 09]

This has to be a record in the history of jail breaks---in just three days ISIS has attacked prisons located in the various cities they have attacked freeing an estimated 4500 prisoners-- many who were former Sunni insurgents from the various Sunni groups especially from the former IAI and Ansar al Sunnah.

[slapout9]

No more Boots On The Ground....time for Wings On Our Feet.

Maybe we will finally learn we are an Airpower nation! We have known that since the 1950's for theses situations it is best to use our Airpower(to include SF/CIA advisors) and there Boots if you want to win.

[JWing]

They too have had an 'iron hand' given their history.

However, it is interesting to note that their currency carries the image of 'Ganesha' a Hindu idol.



That is blasphemy in Islam!

Ray since 1998 when Suharto stepped down have you seen any of these turn to a strongman tendencies in Indonesia that you say are inherent in Muslim culture?

[JWing]

Outlaw 09

Many of the Iraqi militiamen who were fighting in Syria were shifted back to Iraq months ago. Militias have already been fighting insurgents in Fallujah, Abu Ghraib and parts of Diyala. Early this morning Hakim said that he was sending Supreme Council fighters to support the Defense Ministry. Sadr said he supported people protecting the Shiite shrines which would obviously include Samarra in Salahaddin. IRGC Quds Force Cmdr Gen. Suleimani is in Baghdad right now. They are all gearing up to fight the insurgents started from Samarra down to Baghdad.

[JWing]

Outlaw 09

Assad is an Alawite and despite press reports that is not Shiite. That's like saying Shiite are really Sunnis because they are just an offshoot. Syria was also one of the main supporters of the insurgency for years so saying that Shiite rule in Iraq after 03 created this united Shiite arc from Iran to Iraq to Syria is incorrect. Maliki only decided to back Assad when the civil war started and Islamists started fighting the government. Maliki hated Assad but made an alliance of convenience because ISIS and others were seen as worse, Enemy of my enemy stuff going on.

[JWing]

Here's my lastest story on Musings on Iraq. More ISF collapses in Fallujah and other places. Fighting in outskirts of Baghdad plus Shiite and Iranian mobilization are covered.

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...-security.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw 09

Assad is an Alawite and despite press reports that is not Shiite. That's like saying Shiite are really Sunnis because they are just an offshoot. Syria was also one of the main supporters of the insurgency for years so saying that Shiite rule in Iraq after 03 created this united Shiite arc from Iran to Iraq to Syria is incorrect. Maliki only decided to back Assad when the civil war started and Islamists started fighting the government. Maliki hated Assad but made an alliance of convenience because ISIS and others were seen as worse, Enemy of my enemy stuff going on.

JWing

Correct me if I am wrong but yes Alawites are in fact a sect element of Shiaism--even "normal Shia" recognize the sect as Shia, but have a different name for them the last time I checked---and yes both Sunni and Shia did stem from the same Koran and Mohammad until 1400 years ago when they clashed over the successor question and the destruction of Ali. Historically though in say India many Shia thinkers might have been thought to be Sunni and vice versa as they shared similar ideas and world visions, and surprisingly both honor Jesus but simply do not accept him as a prophet. And yes we are infidels but at the same time "people of the book".

So based on 1400 years of infighting and yes using the same Koran they are in fact two different religious groups under the banner of Islam. In some aspects Episcopalians and Catholics are a similar example while both stemming from Catholicism are in fact two different groups after clashing on the question or priests marrying but share a large number of Catholic religious similarities.

If I am also correct yes Syria initially accepted Baathists fleeing Iraq when we arrived based on the Syrians also being Baathists but of a different sect than Saddam Baathists in Baghdad were. I would never argue that the Assad Security Service did allow the Iraqi insurgent open and free movement inside Syria---as long as they maintained a low profile they were "allowed" to exist but it had to be under the radar.

Iraqi's always had to fight to get permits to reside in Syria and usually via corrupt Syrian officials and many did not get them and had to constantly dodge police raids for Iraqi's who would then be pushed back into Iraq---Iraqi refugees that were Sunni had it hard---Iraqi Shia on the other "seemed" to get residence permits/work permits and were not pushed back to Iraq. On the whole Iraqi Sunni refugees and insurgency members did not have it easy in Syria so the yes it "appeared" Assad supported them but the reality on the ground was far different.

Major Iraqi Baathist military officers/State Security types were "allowed" to exist a tad over the radar but that was due to the large amounts of money they had in the Syrians banks and what was flowing to them from other Iraqi supporters and from Jordan.

AQI developed an extensive smuggling system with multiple cutouts inside Syria until they got their fighters to the border and yes if discovered they did end up in prison and torture was not unusual for them. There was no love lost between the then QJBR--AQ in the Land of Two rivers and Assad's security forces.

I would argue Assad "supported" the Sunni insurgency for the core reason- They kept the US busy and off his back as he was not that warm and fuzzy with the idea of the US Army siting on his borders--he and also this perception "they supported Israel" and were boxing in Syria from three sides if one counts the NATO member Turkey.

But Syria while "tolerating" the Sunni insurgency that was tied to the Iraqi Baathist military/state security side was not all that "tolerant" of the QJBR then AQI side even in 2004 and their smuggling through Syria of foreign fighters.

There were in fact a number of AQI members released from Syrian prisons by Islamists when the civil war started---would not call that being "tolerant" towards QJBR/AQI.

Notice Saddam's daughter though did not flee to Syria---rather to Jordan where she has been the guest of the King since her arrival and he has refused to extradite her regardless of US requests which were many.

Understand the enemy of my enemy but global power politics has played a far bigger role in all of this.